Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

This story features AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AZJ

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday August 15 to Friday August 19, 2016
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 32
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 38.61%; Hold 46.31%; Sell 15.07%

Week two of the August reporting season, ending on Friday 19th, generated 32 downgrades in stockbroker ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks only offset by ten upgrades.

This seems to be in sharp contrast to the sideways channel in which the broader indices seem to be moving and the "not too bad" tag that is being applied by many a commentator on the sidelines. Corporate reporting is, of course, not solely about meeting or beating promises and expectations; outlook and valuation are equally important input factors.

For the week, James Hardie was the only stock receiving two upgrades, one to Buy and one to Neutral, whereas amongst the receivers of downgrades a number of stocks stand out with no less than three downgrades each: Fletcher Building, JB Hi-Fi, QBE Insurance and Stockland.

In addition, ARB Corp, GPT, InvoCare and Wellard all received two downgrades post their financial reports. Not all of these downgrades are in response to disappointing performances.

Price targets received some hefty upward adjustments. Webjet leads the pack with an increase of 35.87%, followed by WPP AUNZ, Bapcor, Mineral Resources and Baby Bunting. Even Fletcher Building, in tenth spot for the week, still enjoyed a double-digit increase.

A lot less has been going on to the downside. G8 Education saw its targets slide by -13.6%, with QBE Insurance next (-10%), but with Tox Free, on third spot, the negative adjustment already drops to -3.6%.

Resources stocks dominate the table for positive revisions to forecasts, led by BHP Billiton on +773%. Whitehaven Coal's adjustment of +439% is nothing to be sniffed at either. In between resources stocks we are able to locate Webjet, Baby Bunting and Aventus Retail Property Fund, and Domino's Pizza. Even the tenth on the table, Mirvac, still enjoyed a lift of 33.35%. These adjustments are massive.

Only a few on the negative side would deserve the same qualification. Junior iron ore producer Mt Gibson saw forecasts dive by -123%. 3P Learning suffered a fall of -19.8%. QBE Insurance took a hit of 11.8%.

More of the same to follow in week three?

Upgrade

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 1/7/0

Aurizon's FY16 report proved in-line with a slightly better-than-expected dividend, but the guidance disappointed. Citi analysts see a management team doing the hard yakka, but a lot more is required, still.

The stockbroker suggests now the share market response to the result has reset the share price at a lower level, the share price seems closer to fair value. Hence the upgrade to Neutral from Sell. Price target drops to $4.60 from $4.76.

Dividend estimates have been reduced.

See also AZJ downgrade.

BHP BILLITON LIMITED ((BHP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/4/0

Earnings and cash flow metrics were strong and ahead of Macquarie's forecasts for FY16. The recent recovery in commodity prices now presents upside risk to the base case valuation.

Cost reductions impressed the broker across the petroleum, copper and coal divisions and this has significantly improved the outlook.

Macquarie now expects around US$5.5bn per annum in free cash flow over the next four years. This should enable the company to comfortably develop its organic projects and continue to re-pay debt.

Downside at this point looks limited and the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $20 from $17.

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Looking forward into the FY16 report release, Morgan Stanley analysts suggest investor focus will be on company's guidance for H1 FY17. They now suspect the market might have to lift its estimates by circa 20%. Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-Weight.

The analysts acknowledge seasonally weaker steel prices are likely through Sep-Oct, but they still see near-term outperformance as likely. The broker's target is stable at $8.60. In-Line industry view maintained. No changes made to forecasts.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Evolution's strong result was in line with Macquarie. The company continues to accelerate its debt repayments thanks to solid cash flows, the broker notes. An impairment has been taken on Pajingo ahead of its pending sale.

The divestment of Pajingo demonstrates management's commitment to portfolio optimisation, Macquarie suggests. FY16 was a transformational year given the integration of two new core assets. While further acquisitions or divestments cannot be ruled out, the broker expects FY17 to be a year of asset optimisation. 

Target unchanged at $3.00. Upgrade to Outperform.

IRESS MARKET TECHNOLOGY LIMITED ((IRE)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/2/0

First half results were in line. Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral because for some time its conviction in the growth outlook, especially in the UK, is increasing.

The latest information from the company regarding the trends supports a view that the stock should deliver strong multi-year growth and, while not cheap, Credit Suisse believes the quality warrants the multiple. The broker upgrades the target to $12.70 from $11.80.

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V. ((JHX)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Credit Suisse is increasingly confident that growth is back on track. The stock may not be cheap but the broker is attracted to the business model which underpins a longer-term valuation.

The company has made material investments in new capacity which Credit Suisse expects will extract maximum value from the cycle.

The broker finds merit in becoming more constructive and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $22.70 from $20.60.

Post market update, Citi analysts have lifted their price target to $20.80 from $18.60 and their rating to Neutral, up from Sell.

The analysts point out James Hardie should be in a position to grow by double digits in both FY17 and FY18 and this is rather rare in the present environment. They also refer to the appeal of the US housing leverage story.

Citi analysts suggest the next likely catalyst will be the US investor tour on 15-16 September 2016.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Mineral Resources' result beat Macquarie. The primary driver was increased margins on iron ore production and another solid contribution from mining services. The stock's recent run-up has nevertheless been all about lithium, the broker notes.

The Mt Marion lithium project will be proportionately consolidated rather than equity accounted, as the broker had previously assumed. The change means an increase in earnings forecasts but the bulk of Macquarie's forecast increase reflects those iron ore margins.

Upgrade to Neutral. Target rises to $10.59 from $8.30.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/1

FY16 sales were lower than Credit Suisse forecasts but margins were higher. The broker upgrades EBIT estimates around 6-7% across the forecast period but, despite this, believes consensus expectations remain too high.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform rating and raises the target to $10.65 from $9.20.

WPP AUNZ LTD ((WPP)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Macquarie adjusts its earnings estimates for the merger with WPP's Australasian business, with STW Communications now known as WPP AUNZ. The broker considers the transaction a game changer in terms of size and revenue potential.

Until recently the company's balance sheet was considered stretched and struggling to generate growth. The broker believes the stock is now, in an increasingly expensive small cap market, able to offer investors earnings growth at a reasonable valuation.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $1.55 from 89c.

Downgrade

ANSELL LIMITED ((ANN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/5/1

Ansell's full-year profit romped in 3.8% ahead of consensus and 1.4% ahead of the broker. 

But Macquarie notes some concerns, organic sales easing for the third consecutive half, and a mixed bag operationally.

Earnings per share guidance surprised on the upside – a wide range between 98c and $1.12, the midpoint being 2.5% above consensus.

Macquarie lifts earnings forecasts 0.7% for FY16, 5.7% for FY17 and 6.9% for FY18. Target price rises to $23 from $22.

Ansell is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform after a post-result share-price rally and uncertainty around FY17 operating environment.

ARB CORPORATION LIMITED ((ARB)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/1

ARB's FY16 report slightly missed expectations at Ord Minnett. The analysts make a point in that apparent top line growth doesn't necessarily translate into profits; at least this hasn't been the case in recent years.

As a result, Ord Minnett cannot justify what they believe is a valuation gap between what investors are paying for the shares and what the analysts think the shares are worth. Hence the downgrade to Lighten from Hold. Target moves up to $14.21 from $13.14.

In addition, while they laud management for all the good things put in place in years gone by, the analysts do see downside risk to consensus expectations for the year ahead.

ARB missed expectations due to higher manufacturing costs, albeit only by 2-3%. Regardless, Citi analysts have formed the view the valuation has blown out far too much to the upside; downgrade to Sell from Neutral.

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/7/0

With iron ore contracts being re-priced lower and underlying freight revenue growth still negative, Morgan Stanley believes small operating downgrades remain a risk. That said, coal operating conditions have improved and the broker notes only 2% of customers are uneconomic at spot prices.

FY17 guidance is better than expected but the valuation appears increasingly full. Morgan Stanley finds better quality yield and cash flow exposure elsewhere in Australia infrastructure/utilities sector.

Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is raised to $4.85 from $4.60. Industry view: Attractive.

See also AZJ upgrade.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Bapcor's result slightly beat Macquarie and met guidance. The recent trade price rise appears to be holding, the broker notes, which should boost margins in FY17.

Bapcor offers a defensible growth outlook and solid balance sheet, providing for more acquisition potential, but on share price strength the broker now sees a full valuation. Downgrade to Neutral. Target rises to $5.67 from $5.03.

CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/5/1

CSL delivered yet another solid underlying profit result, comment the analysts, but the turnaround at acquired Seqirus is not going smoothly and this means a disappointing year ahead. All should be well from FY18 onwards, but a taste of disappointment lingers, regardless.

Ord Minnett sees no reason to doubt the longer term growth story that remains at CSL, but for now uncertainty about Seqirus, on top of competitive threats in the plasma business and reduced
buy-back support imply there's no need to buy the stock at current level.

Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate while the target drops to $105.

DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP ((DXS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/2

The composition of Dexus' result was better than Macquarie was expecting. The outlook for trading profits has again improved, which is no surprise given asset prices are rising, the broker notes. FY17 guidance suggests flat on FY16, which is a positive.

The only issue is Dexus' 26% year to date share price rise. Macquarie remains attracted to a strengthening Sydney office market but the stock is now trading at a premium to valuation. Downgrade to Neutral. Target unchanged at $9.06.

FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED ((FBU)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Fletcher's result and dividend beat Macquarie. The market was encouraged by stabilisation in the company's four main problem assets and savings promised from the new conglomerate structure. But gains will be hard to achieve with Australia going backwards and elsewhere flat, the broker warns.

Pricing in NZ is yet to reflect new cost realities, Macquarie suggests. The broker sees a greater risk of negative earnings revisions than positive. Downgrade to Underperform. Target rises to NZ$8.00 from NZ$7.35.

FY16 performance beat UBS's expectations. There are a few items to niggle about, but all in all it appears the analysts admit they've been beaten with management's remediation for the Australian operations proving successful.

Residential and Land Development was significantly ahead of expectations and UBS analysts, while stating this is not core, it still is a positive. The analysts note management seems pretty confident in the outlook. They have raised their price target to NZ$10.15, but also downgraded to Neutral following strong share price performance since late June.

Estimates have been raised.

Prospects, particularly in New Zealand, are positive, Credit Suisse maintains. Yet momentum appears to be priced into the stock.

A further expansion of the trading multiple in the next 6-12 months would require a stronger conviction on the benefits and timing of Project Accelerate and the turnaround in underperforming units.

The broker reduces earnings forecasts for FY17 and FY18 by 8%. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to NZ$10.10 from NZ$9.36.

G8 EDUCATION LIMITED ((GEM)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

First half results disappointed Ord Minnett because of the substantial increase in operating costs. The broker notes no real outlook was presented but the target of a first/second half earnings split of 35/65 was mentioned.

On face value this appears to be a stretch given plans for only modest acquisition activity, although the broker understands the company could dispose of up to 20 loss-making centres in the second half which would clearly help margins and earnings.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy as the broker awaits evidence of greater control on costs. Target is reduced to $3.25 from $4.30.

GPT ((GPT)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/4

First half results were slightly ahead of Macquarie's forecasts. The broker notes significant one-off benefits to 2016 earnings which will have to be cycled in 2017. While earnings are still expected to grow, Macquarie believes the trajectory will be lower.

2016 forecasts are increased by 1.1% and 2017 decreased by 1.5%. The stock remains the broker's preferred defensive exposure in the predominantly retail A-REIT sector but with more headwinds than tailwinds downgrades the rating to Underperform from Neutral. Target rises to $5.16 from $5.00.

Citi analysts saw nothing in GPT's interim report to materially change their view, despite the company slightly lifting its guidance. The company is enjoying tailwinds while headwinds are building, but it is the valuation that puts Citi analysts off.

Hence the downgrade to Sell from Neutral. Target $4.83 (was $4.80). Needless to say, the analysts see better value elsewhere in the sector.

INVOCARE LIMITED ((IVC)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 2/1/2

First half results were slightly behind Ord Minnett's estimates. Given the challenges from lower volumes the result was considered solid but the rally in the share price means a gap to the valuation has emerged.

The broker observes the business enjoys long-term structural growth prospects but reduces the rating to Lighten from Hold given the recent share price appreciation and increasing capital intensity. Target is raised to $11.29 from $11.00.

First half results were slightly ahead of Deutsche Bank's estimates. The company is intent on reducing costs but the broker observes prior attempts at limiting wages growth have been difficult to achieve.

The broker is concerned that the consistent trend of modest average case growth points to customers trading down and price competition.

The stock has attractive characteristics but the upside seems limited in the absence of an earnings surprise. Deutsche Bank downgrades to Sell from Hold. Target is steady at $11.70.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank and Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Credit Suisse and Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/5/2

FY16 results were better than Deutsche Bank expected. Results were supported by the consumer sector, underpinned by housing strength, and Dick Smith's demise.

The broker expects momentum to continue but the benefits of the Dick Smith fall out commenced as early as 2015 and this will be cycled soon.

Deutsche Bank considers the stock is pricing in a high probability of an acquisition of The Good Guys. Rating is downgraded to Hold form Buy. Target rises to $29 from $25.

FY16 results were better than Credit Suisse expected. The outlook is for above-trend growth in FY17 but the broker reduces its FY17 forecast from a high base, by 2%.

The broker notes, if the company does not make an acquisition, it has capacity to fund a $100m buy-back in FY17.

The valuation takes into account the downgrade to forecasts and, given the strong share price performance, Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Outperform. Target slips to $25.21 from $25.95.

FY16 earnings were stronger than expected and the re-rating of the price/earnings ratio leads Morgan Stanley to downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight.

The broker expects the impact from the Dick Smith closures will now begin to fade and envisages potential for the company to participate in further industry consolidation that could improve its market position. Target is raised to $28 from $26. Industry view is In-Line.

MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED ((MYX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/1/0

UBS has reviewed Mayne Pharma and bumped up the target price to $2.20 from $1.78, taking the mid point of a sum-of-the-parts valuation of $2.40 and a discounted cash flow valuation of $2.

Mayne's strong pipeline and acquired portfolio drove the valuation.

Broker downgrades from Buy to Neutral, given recent share price strength.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/4/1

National Australia Bank's June-quarter unaudited cash earnings for continuing operations fell 6% short of Morgan's forecast, thanks to flat revenue and contracting margins. 

Credit quality continued to decline and the broker suspects weakness in markets and treasury, possibly related to Brexit.

Morgans cuts FY16/FY17/FY18 forecasts 1.5%, 1.6% and 0.8% respectively, and expects a dividend cut in FY17.

Broker downgrades to Hold from Add. Target steady at $26.40.

ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/3/0

Orora's full-year earnings outpaced the broker by 3.9% (net profit by 5.7%).

Ord Minnett is positive on the stock, spying value and growth from the North American acquisitions, and incremental growth and capital projects in Australia.

But the broker downgrades to Accumulate from Buy after Monday's share-price rally. Target price rises to $3.10 for $2.80.

Earnings per share forecasts rise on average 4.7% over FY17 to FY19 to reflect margin improvement in North America and Australia.

QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank and Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/3/0

QBE's interim report proved yet another disappointment, showcasing the operational environment remains tough and margin pressure continues. Ord Minnett thinks this justifies a downgrade to Lighten from Hold while dropping the price target to $8.83 from $11.

The analysts retain their confidence that, eventually, management will righten this ship, but weakness might prevail first and they do believe there is risk to the downside. All in all, this is a story about margin and Ord Minnett takes the view the global soft market conditions will make it hard to rectify margins quickly. Estimates have been reduced.

Deutsche Bank found the half year results disappointing. The company expects the spike in Australasian loss ratios can be fixed but the broker suspects this may only apply to 50%, given challenging commercial conditions still exist.

With management's credibility taking a hit the broker believes the company will need to get runs on the board in terms of positive earnings to drive valuation upside.

Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target falls to $10.85 from $12.70.

QBE's first half result fell 10% short of consensus, thanks largely to a 3% deterioration in underlying attritional claims ratio to 51%, compared with 48% in the previous half. 

Morgans sees no quick fix and says margin improvements will be difficult to call in the meantime. The on-off discount rate from falling bond yields of US$283m was higher than the broker's estimate of $200m but was mitigated by positive prior year reserve releases of US$218m.

The broker downgrades FY16/FY17 earnings per share forecasts 11% and 17%.

QBE is downgraded to Hold from Add. Target price falls to $10.86 from $12.11.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/1

FY16 results were in line with Citi's estimates. Residential earnings were up strongly and guidance for FY17 suggests to the broker the strength will be maintained.

Citi observes the move into medium density housing, completed homes and apartments still offers a fresh path for growth if the housing market slows.

Despite this outlook the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy as the stock has re-rated to reflect a better appreciation by the market of the business.

The target is raised to $4.90 from $4.75.

FY16 results were in line with UBS. Growth was driven by ongoing margin and volume improvement in residential, the broker observes.

UBS remains comfortable with the outlook but downgrades to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds. Target is raised to $4.84 from $4.60.

Ahead of Stockland's result release today, Credit Suisse has rolled forward its valuation to set calendar 2017 as the base year as opposed to FY17. This leads to a target price increase to $4.80 from $4.68.

The broker's result forecast exceeds guidance and while believing Stockland continues to offer relative value in an A-REIT market featuring stretched valuations, on the full price Credit Suisse has pulled back to Neutral.

SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ((SPK)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/2

Spark NZ's profit was in line with guidance. Macquarie saw a robust result and outlook in some respects but warns that competition may be set to intensify following a wave of sector consolidation. Cash conversion was a weak point, the broker notes.

Which puts into focus a payout ratio in excess of 100%. Spark is now trading at a premium to the market and its own historical PE, hence Macquarie downgrades to Underperform. Target rises to NZ$3.50 from NZ$3.35.

TOX FREE SOLUTIONS LIMITED ((TOX)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/4/0

While the company is able to offset the activity slowdown and re-tendering through new business wins, Morgan Stanley expects lower growth going forward.

The broker reduces earnings estimates by 28% for FY17 and 25% for FY18. Given the widespread softness in the customer base the broker expects activity and pricing to be affected.

The broker also forecasts FY17 as the trough year for margins, with a steady improvement in FY18 and FY19 amid scope for further accretive M&A providing a catalyst.

Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is lowered to $2.80 from $3.34. In-Line sector view retained.

WEBJET LIMITED ((WEB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/0

FY16 results were in line with UBS. Cash flow featured and the broker observes the balance sheet is in good shape.

UBS notes the significant momentum in the business but considers there is plenty priced into the stock at current levels and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $9.85 from $6.84.

WELLARD LIMITED ((WLD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Reduce from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/1

Wellard has delivered its third downgrade since listing, prompting a downgrade from UBS to Neutral from Buy.

The net profit after tax forecast of $22.9m-$23.9m comes hot on the heels of a June 30 revision to $23.5-$30m, and compares with the prospectus forecast of $46.4m. It reflects a $7.7m repair bill, an insurance claim and a $1.2m bad-debt provision.

UBS tips a decline in gross margin over the second half of 2016 given weakness in its Live Export market.

The broker cuts earnings-per-share forecasts 15% to 32% to reflect weaker margins and cash-flow, likely leading to increased net debt and interest costs.

Given Wellard's history of revisions, UBS has changed its price-target methodology to apply a 30% discount until gross margins stabilise. Target price tumbles to 41c from 77c.

Morgans has downgraded Wellard to Reduce from Hold after the company announced its fourth downgrade since listing in December 2015. 

The broker says the company failed to deliver on its prospectus targets and has lost confidence in management. Operations continue to decline to date in FY17 so Morgans finds forecasting difficult, but notes industry conditions may improve in FY18.

Morgans pegs the stock as a high-risk investment as earnings uncertainty combines with rising debt and potential asset impairments. Target price sliced to 34.5c – a discount to FY16 net tangible assets of 57.5c.

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