Weekly Reports | Mar 13 2017
This story features BORAL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BLD
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday March 6 to Friday March 10, 2017
Total Upgrades: 8
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 43.30%; Hold 42.71%; Sell 13.99%
As is usually the case, overall activity among stockbroking analysts has quietened down considerably now the February reporting season is history. FNArena still registered eight upgrades in recommendations for individual ASX-listed stocks against six downgrades.
Nickel miner Western Areas received both one upgrade and one downgrade, but otherwise all rating changes were single-step moves. Resources stocks represent four of the eight upgrades, with building materials providers Boral and CSR adding two further cyclicals.
Changes to valuations/target prices were a benign affair. Alacer Gold tops the table for positive changes (containing only four stocks by end of the week) with a rather unremarkable 2.6% gain. On the negative side, Navitas commands pole position with a decline of -5.8%.
The table for positive amendments to earnings estimates is dominated by resources stocks. Mt Gibson enjoyed the largest increase, up 19%, followed by Rio Tinto (+11%), Fortescue (+8%) and BHP Billiton (+3%).
Western Areas suffered the largest hit to estimates, with its consensus estimate dropping by -10% during the week. There follows Tassal (-3.7%), then Suncorp (-2.3%).
Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokers FNArena monitors daily still outnumber total Neutral/Hold ratings, indicating the Australian share market remains in multi-speed mode, to put it mildly. It's still a bear market for large segments if you want the blunt assessment.
Upgrade
BORAL LIMITED ((BLD)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Ord Minnett perceives a broad view that approvals and commencements activity has peaked. Nevertheless, with a full pipeline of work, the eventual impact on building products and heavy construction materials demand may not be seen until the end of the year, particularly in the eastern states.
The broker expects Boral to be a key beneficiary of the market dynamics, in addition to continued growth in the US residential sector. Hence, rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $6.50.
CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED ((CAJ)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/0/0
The company has proposed a $40m equity raising, effectively removing gearing concerns. Credit Suisse observes, under a new team, cost savings and radiologist re-engagement seem to be the priority and the valuation is undemanding.
Against a backdrop of improving market dynamics, the broker suspects an equity re-rating is garnering momentum. Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $0.21 from $0.15.
CSR LIMITED ((CSR)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/1
Aluminium prices have continued to rise, up 10% since the start of the year. Ord Minnett still expects a slight surplus in 2017, but notes increased expectations of environment-led curtailment in China keeps the market sentiment constructive.
The broker raises quarterly aluminium price forecast by 5-25% over 2017-20. Incorporating the revised estimates into calculations leads to an upgrade to Hold from Lighten. Target rises to $4.15 from $3.80.
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD ((FMG)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/4/1
Credit Suisse expects the current level of iron ore prices to contract late this year but still considers the company's valuation and prospective 12-month dividend warrants an Outperform rating, upgrading from Neutral. Target is $7.35.
Chinese steel consumption has surprise to the upside, as have Chinese steel prices. The broker does not expect steel prices to give way just yet and believes these can support a iron ore price above US$90/t throughout the first half of the year.
A slowing in infrastructure projects may cut steel demand by -1-2%, which does not suggest a price collapse for either steel or iron ore to the broker, but does indicate 2018 will be weaker than 2017, says Credit Suisse.
INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL ((IGO)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/3/1
The company has outperformed Western Areas ((WSA)) over the past year, Morgan Stanley observes, and it scores better on various financial metrics. On a relative basis, Independence Group is favoured as the Nova project adds both mine life and higher production.
The broker also expects catalysts for Independence Group are more likely to occur at current commodity prices. Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $4.50 from $3.70. Attractive sector view retained.
NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NEC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Macquarie believes improved early-season ratings set a good platform for monetisation, offsetting headwinds in the industry.
The broker expects underlying cash conversion will be weak over the next few years but this is offset by other working capital adjustments and the sale of Willoughby.
A high percentage of earnings is still expected to be distributed to shareholders via dividends. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $1.25 from $1.10.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL ((SFR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/2/1
Ord Minnett's commodities team has raised its near-term base metal prices on the back of positive sentiment, supply disruptions and strong growth in demand.
The most meaningful changes are increases of 15% and 26% for copper prices in 2017 and 2018 respectively, as well as increases in aluminium pricing of 21% and 15% for the same respective periods.
The broker raises its rating for Sandfire Resources to Speculative Buy from Hold and the target to $7.30 from $6.80.
WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/5/2
Ord Minnett's commodities team has raised its near-term base metal prices on the back of positive sentiment, supply disruptions and strong growth in demand.
The most meaningful changes are increases of 15% and 26% for copper prices in 2017 and 2018 respectively, as well as increases in aluminium pricing of 21% and 15% for the same respective periods.
The broker raises the target to Hold from Lighten. Target is $2.40.
See also WSA downgrade.
Downgrade
AUSTOCK GROUP LIMITED ((ACK)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0
First half underlying net profit was up 7%. The main positive was the growth in life funds under management, Morgans observes.
The negatives were slowing sales growth and higher near-term costs. The broker downgrades to Hold from Add on valuation grounds, and because of some uncertainty regarding the board structure going forward.
Overall, the broker believes future growth prospects for the investment bond market are solid. The tax effective nature of the company's products is relevant to high income earners and for estate planning. Target is reduced to $0.53 from $0.55.
ASTRO JAPAN PROPERTY TRUST ((AJA)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Astro Japan has confirmed that Lone Star Real Estate made a proposal to acquire its assets at book value and this proposal was reiterated on February 28. The board has rejected the proposal on both occasions.
Ord Minnett envisages a scenario where the company can maintain the status quo but considers this less likely now. The latest news is considered to be a probable catalyst for Astro Japan to pursue a sale, either with Lone Star or another party.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and target is reduced to $6.75 from $7.50.
AP EAGERS LIMITED ((APE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/4/0
Credit Suisse observes growth stocks tend to require constant high growth to maintain their multiple. Growth is still expected for AP Eagers, but at a slower pace than previously forecast.
The broker retains a belief that Carzoos is an excellent strategy and consolidation a long-term theme which should benefit the company. Nevertheless, the automotive industry faces some challenges, including the slowing of new car sales and a likely end to flex commissions.
The broker does not envisage a short-term catalyst for a re-rating and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $9.90 from $13.15.
NAVITAS LIMITED ((NVT)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/2/1
The company has sustained another contract loss, announcing its Adult English Migrant Program for the Department of Education & Training will not be renewed in most regions upon expiry. This will result in a permanent reduction in EBITDA of $12-14m from FY18.
Credit Suisse was surprised at the news as, although the tendering process had been flagged at the first half result, no changes were expected to be material at a group level. Growth expectations had been raised, with the rolling off of the loss of the university program contract with Macquarie University.
A return to growth now appears unlikely in FY18. Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $4.40.
WESTFIELD CORPORATION ((WFD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Credit Suisse notes its recent history with the stock has been characterised by frequent disappointments as asset disposals, invasive developments, intensive retailer re-mixing and technology spending have all conspired to dampen earnings growth.
The stock may be cheap but the broker expects it to stay that way, and further asset disposals are likely to drive another year of soft growth.The broker also has concerns that the company's small stake in Hammerson will ultimately lead to dilutive – in the case of earnings – M&A activity.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $9.25 from $10.25.
WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/5/2
Independence Group ((IGO)) scores better on various financial metrics and Morgan Stanley expects there are more catalysts for that stock.
At current prices, Independence Group's Nova project adds both mine life and production that are higher than Western Areas' current producing assets.
Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Overweight. Attractive sector view retained. Target is reduced to $2.15 from $2.90.
See also WSA upgrade.
Total Recommendations |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APE - EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BLD - BORAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CAJ - CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSR - CSR LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEC - NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFR - SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED