article 3 months old

ASX200: Correction May be Over

Technicals | Aug 31 2015

By Nick Linton-Ffrost

Trading range between 4900 and 5400 expected over the next 2-3 weeks

We suspect that last week's price action in the ASX200 between 4770 and 5325 has marked out the trading range for the next few weeks. Our signals are mixed as to whether or not last week's steep decline and rapid bounce marks the

  • end of the correction lower from 6000 ( “c” wave within a major 4th) or
  • is part of five move lower to the 4500-4750 range (i.e. medium term trend change)

We slightly favour the corrective view which implies a bounce towards 5800 after a finding a foothold around 5000.

The 4775 -5050 should provide strong support given –

  • very strong reversal week last week
  • 7 year trend line up from 3150 comes into play around those levels
  • top of a major wave 1 formed in 2010-2011 around 5000

The 5400 pivot level (i.e. bottom of wave “a”) is expected to provide strong resistance in the near term. Therefore over the next we suggest looking for near term buy signals around 4900-5000 and sell signals between 5300 and 5400.

Alternative view – our assumed “c” wave morphs into a third wave which implies a retest of last weeks lows at 4770 followed by a fifth wave lower to 4550. This move would take around 2 weeks. Trading above 5400 negates this view.
 

Another trading idea from

Fifth Wave | fwtc.com.au                                               

FW generates over 150 Trading Alerts on the ASX100 each year. We are a subscription service specialising in short term technical strategies based on 27 years experience.

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