Australian Broker Call
April 18, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 11:15 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| TLS - | TELSTRA CORP | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
| WHC - | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Deutsche Bank rates CIM as Sell (5) -
First quarter net profit was up 23% in the company has confirmed FY17 net profit guidance of $640-700m. Historically, Deutsche Bank notes the first quarter is a seasonally weak quarter and has accounted for 19-24% of full year net profit.
Sell rating and $31.39 target retained.
Target price is $31.39 Current Price is $36.42 Difference: minus $5.03 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.40, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 206.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CIM as Outperform (1) -
The company reported first-quarter net profit was up 23%. Macquarie observes that the previous years first quarter represented 22% of full-year net profit.
The company noted that one-off items had a minimal negative impact on earnings. Net profit guidance of $640-700m has been re-affirmed.
The broker continues to like the leverage to the infrastructure them and envisages upside to consensus earnings forecasts. Outperform and $42.50 target retained.
Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $36.42 Difference: $6.08
If CIM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.40, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 129.20 cents and EPS of 215.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 140.40 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CWN as Buy (1) -
Citi makes minor revisions to estimates to reflect the net impact of upgrades to margin assumptions that are offset by reductions to the growth assumptions for the Melbourne main floor and further downgrades to VIP forecasts.
The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target $14.40 from $13.65.
Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $12.21 Difference: $2.19
If CWN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.38, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 52.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.2, implying annual growth of -44.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 60.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -
Citi downgrades FY17 estimates after disappointingly-low March quarter price realisation, and upgrades FY18 estimates on lower Australian dollar and interest costs after further debt payments.
Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.80 from $6.70.
Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.3
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 41.19 cents and EPS of 104.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.92 cents and EPS of 60.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of -33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates FMG as Hold (3) -
The March quarter was seasonally weak, as Deutsche Bank expected, as both mines and ports were affected by wet weather. Mined ore was slightly above estimates while ore that was shipped was in line.
The broker now expects price realisation of 80% for FY17, and revises estimates down by -14%. Hold rating is retained. Target is lowered to $6.00 from $6.30.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.5
If FMG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 50.49 cents and EPS of 111.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.20 cents and EPS of 73.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of -33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -
March quarter shipments were marginally below Macquarie's expectations, although this was overshadowed by weaker realised prices and a reduction to FY17 realised price guidance.
The broker attributes the miss on its forecasts to higher negative provisional pricing adjustments because of the recent fall in iron ore prices and widens its discount assumptions for the rest of the year, although expects the discounts on the market to narrow as prices fall.
Macquarie retains a Outperform rating and the target is reduced to $6.20 from $6.80.
Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.7
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 74.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of -33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes headline iron ore prices and the realised price discount are falling and this is putting pressure on free cash flow. Still, free cash flow and yield potential remain robust, the broker believes.
The company is focused on debt reduction, shareholder returns and the core business but in the near term Morgan Stanley expects sentiment will be determined by achieved prices and, with both the headline and the discount price under pressure, this creates a sentiment headwind.
Equal-weight rating retained. Target falls to $6.00 from $6.30. Attractive industry view..
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.5
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 42.52 cents and EPS of 116.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.89 cents and EPS of 85.04 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of -33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -
Morgans found the operating results reasonable in the March quarter but price realisation versus the benchmark for the company's product has plunged. Further pain is added with the correction in benchmark iron ore prices.
The broker believes the underperformance of lower grade iron ore will continue for at least the next month, which will mean the discount for the company's products blows out further.
The stock could underperform in the short term, given its market position as a high volume, low-grade iron ore producer. Hold rating retained. Target is lowered to $5.95 from $6.43.
Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.45
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.22 cents and EPS of 85.04 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 43.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of -33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -
March quarter shipments were in line with Ord Minnett's expectations while costs were lower. The company has reduced its FY17 guidance for achieved prices to 75-85% of the benchmark, down from 85-90%.
This has affected near-term earnings estimates yet the broker believes the slide in the shares from the 2017 highs is overdone and maintains a Accumulate recommendation. Target is reduced to $7.60 from $8.00.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $2.1
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 50.49 cents and EPS of 115.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 63.78 cents and EPS of 107.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of -33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -
Incorporating the March quarter update and revisions to guidance, UBS cuts FY17 earnings estimates by -9% while FY18 forecasts are lifted by 14%.
Although the broker estimates the share price is currently pricing in iron ore of around US$50/dmt, it is still expected to face pressure from a falling iron ore price.
Neutral and $7.00 target retained.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.5
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 58.46 cents and EPS of 112.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.49 cents and EPS of 75.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of -33.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates HFA as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie believes the improvement in flows during the quarter supports its Outperform rating. The broker finds a valuation attractive as the company is utilising tax losses that result in no tax being paid.
Target is raised to $2.78 from $2.62.
Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.58
If HFA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 14.88 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.92 cents and EPS of 16.48 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates LNK as Neutral (3) -
Sunsuper and Kinetic Super intend to merge. UBS estimates this could reduce Link's revenue by -2% and operating earnings by -3-4%.
While consolidation activity in this instance is likely to be a negative for the company, the broker believes Link is likely to be a net beneficiary of mergers over the medium term as it has a low-cost offering and a skew to larger funds.
Neutral and $8.10 target retained.
Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.55 Difference: $0.55
If LNK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.20, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 160.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 18.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates TCL as Buy (1) -
March quarter traffic and revenue was positive and strong, Citi observes. A key positive was the strength in truck volumes relative to cars. In particular, the broker notes the M7 in Sydney continued to deliver solid growth in trucks despite the toll increasing.
Buy rating and $12.25 target retained.
Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: $0.28
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.50 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 304.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie observes underlying traffic trends remain robust across the company's core networks, with NSW and the US above expectations.
From a revenue perspective the variance in the March quarter versus the broker's estimates was minimal, relative to second-half expectations. Outperform retained. Target is $12.40.
Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: $0.43
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.50 cents and EPS of 46.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 304.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 56.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has reported steady traffic and revenue growth. Morgan Stanley is hopeful that the widening works and disruptions on Melbourne's CityLink, the company's largest single asset, have now peaked.
Equal-weight rating, $11.45 target and Cautious industry view retained.
Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 304.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -
March quarter toll revenue data signals ongoing strength in Sydney and the US, with improving conditions in Brisbane and revenue growth in Melbourne, even as widening works disrupted traffic.
Morgans makes minor upgrades to forecasts and lifts its target to $11.47 from $11.16. The broker retains a Hold rating, given estimates for no total shareholder returns across the next 12 months at the current share price level.
The broker believes there will be better opportunities to buy the stock down the track
Target price is $11.47 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 304.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -
The company reported 10% proportional revenue growth in the March quarter. UBS observes the Sydney network continues to benefit from the increased truck multipliers and the Queensland network from the rolling off of toll discounts on Legacy Way.
The broker believes the company has a healthy development pipeline, noting $3bn in committed projects. Buy recommendation and $12.40 target retained.
Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: $0.43
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.50 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 304.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.50 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TLS as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Despite the negative impact from a new mobile entrant, Deutsche Bank believes Telstra is now an appealing investment, given a sustainable dividend yield of 6.6%, potential capital return and a 39% price/earnings discount to the market.
The broker upgrades to Buy from Hold. Deutsche Bank believes the negative impact of the entry of TPG Telecom ((TPM)) as a mobile network operator will be mitigated by Telstra's superior network and its incumbent position.Target is reduced to $4.51 from $4.87.
Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.35
If TLS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.54, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of -33.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TPM as Buy (1) -
The company has announced its intention to construct a mobile network having secured two 10 MHz of Australian spectrum in the 700 MHz band. The price of $1.26bn was well ahead of Deutsche Bank's expectations.
Hence, the broker believes this will make it difficult to achieve a positive net present value from the investment. Despite this, Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating given the potential for market share gains and high total shareholder return.
Target is reduced to $9.71 from $10.56.
Target price is $9.71 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $3.05
If TPM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.14, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TPM as Lighten (4) -
The company has provided a formal plan to enter the Australian mobile market. The $600m in planned network spending is in the middle of Ord Minnett's prior forecasts.
The broker estimates that, because of the much larger than expected expenditure on spectrum, the net present value of the mobile project would be negative unless average revenue per user is more than $45.
Lighten rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.55 from $6.10.
Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.14, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TPM as Neutral (3) -
UBS calculates that breaking even on operating earnings for mobiles would occur with around 2% subscriber share, which suggests a 4% market share.
The broker suspects the company could raise its mobile data quotas substantially and could also offer unlimited data plans, with caveats, within a year.
The broker believes the company can succeed in the mobile market where Hutchison ((HTA)) failed, as earnings pools have grown and the cost of the network build is below Hutchison's, and partly leverages existing infrastructure.
Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $6.70 from $7.00.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $0.04
If TPM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.14, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 48.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 41.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -
Citi has reviewed the data to assess the direction of risk to forecasts. Volumes are better in the Americas but a little soft in Australia.
Volume growth in China remain strong but Australian exports are being re-allocated to China from Hong Kong and Singapore. Shipments to Europe and the Middle East are looking better.
The broker retains a Sell rating because the price/earnings ratio is stretched. While the data showed solid results this is more consistent with 8-10% revenue growth, in the broker's opinion. Target is $10.50.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $12.13 Difference: minus $1.63 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 41.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 59.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 50.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -
Saleable coal production in the March quarter was below Citi's estimates. This was primarily because of the scheduled long-wall change at Narrabri making a greater impact.
The company has reiterated FY17 production guidance of 21-22m tonnes. City expects the company to deliver 7% compound volume growth over the next five years and even stronger 19% growth in higher-value semi-soft volumes. Buy rating and $3.50 target retained.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.52
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 40.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 1895.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 35.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WHC as Hold (3) -
Saleable coal production in the March quarter was below Deutsche Bank's estimates, as ground conditions and the changes at Narrabri weighed more on the quarter than had been anticipated.
Guidance for FY17 of 21-22mt has been maintained. Metallurgical coal pricing was in line with the broker's estimates. Deutsche Bank upgrades FY17 earnings estimates by 6%.
Hold rating retained. Target is $2.80.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 1895.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WHC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
March quarter operations were broadly in line with expectations, although sales were slightly lower than Macquarie expected. The broker observes the company has been the beneficiary of a strong rally in coal prices as well as its own operating success.
Nevertheless, it appears the company has to offer larger discounts to be able to increase semi-soft sales in the market. Hence, although Macquarie acknowledges the company will re-gain some revenue from emptying inventories in the fourth quarter, significantly higher prices are not expected.
Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 1895.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley moved to Equal-weight when the stock reached its target as coal prices spiked following Cyclone Debbie. Since then the equity has traded lower and the broker is watching for sufficient upside to revisit its view.
Morgan Stanley still envisages production increasing along with an improving product mix and the potential for better price realisation. Equal-weight retained.Target is $3.30. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.32
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 1895.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WHC as Hold (3) -
FY17 saleable production guidance of 21-22m tonnes appears to be comfortably achievable, Morgans suggests, although price realisation for the second quarter metallurgical sales was below expectations.
The broker believes the latest coal price spike will be relatively short-lived, as seaborne supply recovers against an easing of the 2016 Chinese domestic constraints.
The broker believes the stock is trading close to fair value and maintains a Hold rating. Target is $3.07.
Target price is $3.07 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.09
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 1895.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -
The longwall change at Narrabri interrupted production more than Ord Minnett expected, although the move to wider coal faces is almost complete. Achieved prices were generally above the broker's estimates.
The broker believes the stock continues to screen attractively across a range of metrics and is well placed to take advantage of buoyant coal markets.
Accumulate rating and $3.50 target retained.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.52
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 1895.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -
March quarter production was weaker than forecast as the Narrabri long-wall move occurred earlier than expected. A strong June quarter is needed but UBS believes this is achievable, given the open cut was running late.
Better pricing is also expected since spot prices are now over US$130/t. The broker believes there is an upside risk to estimates. Neutral rating and $3.20 target retained.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.22
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 1895.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| CIM - | CIMIC GROUP | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $36.42 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $36.42 | ||
| CWN - | CROWN RESORTS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $12.21 |
| FMG - | FORTESCUE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.50 |
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.50 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.50 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.50 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.50 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.50 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $5.50 | ||
| HFA - | HFA HOLDINGS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.20 |
| LNK - | LINK ADMINISTRATION | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.55 |
| TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.97 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.97 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.97 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $11.97 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $11.97 | ||
| TLS - | TELSTRA CORP | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.16 |
| TPM - | TPG TELECOM | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.66 |
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.66 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.66 | ||
| TWE - | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $12.13 |
| WHC - | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.98 |
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.98 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 10 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 13 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 3 |
Tuesday 18 April 2017
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