Australian Broker Call
September 19, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 10:51 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| CAR - | CARSALES.COM | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
Credit Suisse rates APA as Underperform (5) -
A reduction in terminal asset values for several pipelines reduces the adjusted valuation.
Credit Suisse believes the market may be forced to justify carrying values, which are estimated to be significantly higher than disclosed asset values.
Underperform retained. Target drops to $7.80 from $8.45.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $8.50 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 21.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 46.65 cents and EPS of 26.09 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BWP as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett updates earnings estimates following a review of the FY17 result, with a focus on lease renewals, expected asset sales and funding requirements.
The broker estimates the eight non-core assets not sold will require $80m in capital expenditure to reconfigure facilities and attract new tenants over FY18-20. On average Ord Minnett expects eight months of downtime.
Hold rating retained. Target reduced to $3.05 from $3.10.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.06
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -49.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CAR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
As the stock now offers a return of just 2% (see gap between share price and target) and appears to be racing ahead of earnings, Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy. The broker considers the stock fully valued and now trading on FY18 price/earnings ratio of 25.6x.
Citi maintains a positive view of the earnings outlook and suspects that, with growth in earnings per share in the teens, it will not take long for earnings to catch up. Target is raised to $14.05 from $13.75.
Target price is $14.05 Current Price is $14.09 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.40, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.40 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.10 cents and EPS of 61.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -
The company will sell Edna May gold mine in Western Australia, one of its smallest and highest-cost mines, for up to $90m. Citi considers the sale a portfolio upgrade, similar to the divestments of Pajingo in FY17.
There may be an acquisition to follow, Citi suggests, and the company has a good track record of adding value via M&A, although it has said that gold mines are currently too expensive and organic growth is preferred.
Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.65 from $2.70.
Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.25
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 31.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -
The company will sell Edna May for $40m plus a contingent future payment of up to $50m. Credit Suisse observes the transaction structure demonstrates the differential pricing that is applied to mature and challenging assets versus high-quality assets.
The divestment is consistent with the company's articulated strategy to improve the quality of its portfolio. The broker retains an Outperform rating and the target is reduced to $2.22 from $2.30.
Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 31.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -
The company will sell the Edna May mine to Ramelius Resources ((RMS)). The company will receive a $40m cash payment upon sale and up to $50m in additional royalty payments and/or RMS scrip.
Macquarie considers this an obvious divestment choice for the company and the updated production guidance signals the -5% fall in costs going forward will be a positive.
Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.90.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.4
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 31.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -
The company has announced the sale of its Edna May asset in Western Australia to Ramelius Resources ((RMS)). This was the company's least profitable mine.
The consideration is $40m plus $50m in royalties and/or shares with a working capital adjustment. UBS believes the maximum consideration is close to book value.
While UBS believes the transaction price is low, especially considering heightened competition for gold assets, the asset has been an underperformer and lacks the significance compared with the company's other assets.
Buy rating retained. Target retained at $2.59.
Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.19
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 31.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -
Press reports put the losses on the NZ International Convention Centre project at -$130m, citing industry sources.
Macquarie concedes that where the losses end up is really a balance sheet issue but believes there is a reasonable prospect the company will temper its risk appetite and bidding behaviour post the experience.
The broker's long-term assumptions around NZ import parity pricing drags down valuation well below the market.
Underperform rating is retained. Target is NZ$6.54.
Current Price is $7.38. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.75 cents and EPS of 53.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.92 cents and EPS of 48.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -
Further debt restructuring benefits and increasing performance fees should enable the company to produce consistent growth in earnings per share over the next 2-3 years, in Ord Minnett's opinion.
Still, the broker believes this is lower-quality growth which should not be valued at a price/earnings multiple of 18x FY18 estimates.
Hold retained. Target is $7.80.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.8, implying annual growth of 5.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie finds the volatility in fertiliser prices is apparent in the short term but there are more positive fundamentals in the 12-18 months picture.
The new CEO, who starts in November, Jeanne Johns, is likely to be keenly interested in how the company can play a part in the global consolidation theme, Macquarie suggests.
The broker also believes there is reasonable prospect of a buy-back being announced in November. Macquarie doesn't consider this would contradict the pursuit of long-term growth in the US industrial chemicals market.
Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $3.92 from $3.90.
Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.28
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 140.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 20.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 23.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates JHX as Buy (1) -
The company has clarified that there will be no changes to its 35/90 target, or the margin target range for operating earnings in the US of 20-25%. The company is also expecting 6-8% per annum primary demand growth.
While the impact of the recent floods in Texas and Florida are unknown, management has highlighted hurricane-impacted areas represent 15% of North American volume.
As a result, Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $19.90 target. Buy rating retained. Target is $19.92.
Target price is $19.92 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: $2.66
If JHX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.65, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.48 cents and EPS of 79.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 67.37 cents and EPS of 93.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates LLC as Buy (1) -
UBS expects an improved contribution from Asia in FY19, as the company moves away from its home market. The company is starting to demonstrate value in its global urban regeneration projects.
UBS is comfortable that the company can turnaround the -$40m EBITDA loss in FY17. In the short term the focus will be on harvesting apartment development profits.
Buy rating and $17.70 target retained.
Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $17.76 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.40, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 140.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.4, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 77.40 cents and EPS of 154.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.4, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Sell (5) -
Deutsche Bank expects the company to report an underlying net profit of $133.7m for the year to July, up 23%. Full year guidance for higher underlying earnings growth is expected, subject to average seasonal conditions in each of the key markets.
Deutsche Bank retains a Sell rating, with the stock trading at a 33% premium to valuation, and $6.90 target.
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: minus $2.3 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.1, implying annual growth of 672.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of 20.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TCL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $13.50 target. The broker considers the infrastructure sector an attractive asset class for global investors, providing access to relatively predictable, and growing, cash flows.
Against a backdrop of a broader market that is struggling following the August reporting season the broker suggests Transurban is heading in the right direction.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.93 Difference: $1.57
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.71, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 107.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 27.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| APA - | APA | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.50 |
| BWP - | BWP TRUST | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.99 |
| CAR - | CARSALES.COM | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $14.09 |
| EVN - | EVOLUTION MINING | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.40 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.40 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.40 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.40 | ||
| FBU - | FLETCHER BUILDING | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.38 |
| GMG - | GOODMAN GRP | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $8.37 |
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.64 |
| JHX - | JAMES HARDIE | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $17.26 |
| LLC - | LEND LEASE CORP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $17.76 |
| NUF - | NUFARM | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.20 |
| TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.93 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 8 |
| 3. Hold | 3 |
| 5. Sell | 3 |
Tuesday 19 September 2017
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