Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners transfers coverage to a new analyst, maintaining a Buy rating and $1.15 target for Acrow Formwork and Construction Services.

The broker remains attracted to the stock given the quality of its management and strong outlook for the sectors in which it operates, particularly engineering and transport infrastructure.

Progress has been made on several fronts driving earnings momentum, margin improvements and an increase in returns on equity. The company has guided to FY24 revenue in a range of $190-200m and EBITDA of $67-70m, reflecting growth of around 16% and 29%, respectively.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.27
If ACF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi observes dealer numbers continue to grow at Trader Interactive, supported  by growth in Powersports dealers. RVTrader listings increased month on month as of September 1, although the broker notes they continue to be down year-on-year.

Citi's US RV analyst assesses there is a slight improvement in demand, and sales improved sequentially in July. Dealers are having to work harder, which the broker believes is positive for RVTrader. Buy rating and $29.65 target retained for Carsales.

Target price is $29.65 Current Price is $29.96 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes the FY23 results from Capricorn Metals were distorted by the accounting treatment of the partial hedge book buyback. This removed all hedging obligations until September 2024. EBITDA beat forecasts because of lower cost of sales and lower costs at the Mount Gibson development project.

A final investment decision for Mount Gibson is now likely in the first half of 2024 and, with a favourable outlook for the gold price, Bell Potter believes this is a good use of capital and will appeal to shareholders looking for exposure to upside in the gold price. Buy rating retained. Target edges up to $5.20 from $5.19.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.93
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -

Underlying FY23 results were in line with Macquarie's estimates. Net profit was materially lower-than-expected because of one-offs.

Capricorn Metals posted closing net cash of $15m, almost double what Macquarie had expected and this was because of a lower-than- expected closing lease balance.

The company has retained FY24 guidance of 115-125,000 ounces at an AISC of $1270-1370/oz. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $4.80 target.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.53
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi analyses web traffic data which suggests continued weakness in Japan and Taiwan. Therefore Domino's Pizza Enterprises probably has more work to do in these regions to rebuild orders.

The initial strategies to combat inflation had suboptimal results in customer volumes, the broker points out, although new strategies such as My Domino's Box and loaded fries appear to be more successful.

Citi assesses the business needs to significantly increase the pace of new store openings to meet its targets and this will likely rely on the willingness and ability of franchisees to invest. Neutral rating and $57.95 target retained.

Target price is $57.95 Current Price is $53.41 Difference: $4.54
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.33, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Metcash has released an AGM update to the ASX, which also includes a trading update for the first 18 weeks of FY24. 

Citi, in a quick response, highlights today's release signals independent supermarkets continue to lose market share, while hardware sales have slowed since the last prior update.

Liqour sales momentum seems to have slightly improved with the analysts highlighting on-premise spending is in decline. Relative to the broker's forecasts, both Hardware and Liquor are performing somewhat better, with Food in line.

Citi remains Neutral-rated with a price target of $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.28
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Add (1) -

Regis Resources remains Morgans' top pick amongst its gold coverage. After analysing the industry the broker notes large cap gold producers are continuing to seek copper exposure in order to lower costs and pursue an "all-weather portfolio strategy".

A stabilising of interest rates is likely to drive gold prices higher in FY24, the broker adds, while decoupling of the US dollar will drive robust demand by central banks and investors seeking to hedge risk against an uncertain future.

Regis Resources has foundations in place for a strong FY24 and FY25 as it reduces capital intensity and transitions to a "cash harvesting phase", Morgans asserts. Add rating and $1.74 target.

Target price is $1.74 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.12
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Sell (5) -

Sims' market update, released this morning, is effectively an unquantified profit warning, with the scrap king reporting conditions globally have remained weak and they are weakening in the US.

Sims expects to be around EBIT break-even in Q1 FY24. Citi retains its Sell rating, alongside a price target of $15.00.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.79 Difference: $1.21
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates UMG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett recommends shareholders vote in favour of Malteries Soufflet's proposed takeover of United Malt as it considers this a "great outcome" for investors.

The $5 offer is a 45% premium to the share price prior to the indicative proposal being announced in March and a 25% premium to the broker's stand-alone valuation.

The scheme meeting is scheduled for October 12, 2023 and, if it proceeds, the shares will be suspended from trading at the close on October 17, 2023. Hold rating and $5 target.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $0.07
If UMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.00, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources