Australian Broker Call

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May 15, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CHC - Charter Hall Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
DXS - Dexus Property Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
GPT - GPT Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
XRO - Xero Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
ALG  ARDENT LEISURE GROUP

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $0.34

Citi rates ALG as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses, after the -75% fall in the share price since the first half result and considering the $100m asset backing in theme parks, investors are only paying around $200m for Main Event.

This represents a severe discount to peers and appears overly bearish to the broker. Citi now assigns a High Risk addition to its Buy rating, given the repair required for the balance sheet amid the risk of a second wave of coronavirus.

Five Main Event centres have re-opened in May 2020, with plans for 18 more to re-open by the end of the month. Citi expects Dreamworld to re-open in August 2020 and notes current social distancing requirements probably make theme parks economically unviable.

Target is reduced to $0.55 from $1.74, on the back of changes to earnings estimates.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.21
If ALG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting upside of 203.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG  BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $19.74

Credit Suisse rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Breville Group's equity raising provides flexibility and also enables the company to invest in international expansion and new product development, Credit Suisse notes.

Sales growth for the first four months of the second half was stronger than the broker expected although there was some deceleration in March/April.

Forecasts are upgraded to better reflect recent trading and the target is raised to $20.27 from $16.16. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $20.27 Current Price is $19.74 Difference: $0.53
If BRG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.21, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.21 cents and EPS of 58.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.69 cents and EPS of 64.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of 8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC  CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $7.87

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

The company reiterated FY20 guidance in its update on operations. Charter Hall has re-valued around 50% of the portfolio with minimal change in asset values to date.

While transactions are likely to be limited in the near term, Macquarie assesses the business is well capitalised and can take advantage of any opportunities that arise. Outperform rating and $9.31 target.

Target price is $9.31 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $1.44
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.04, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 67.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.6, implying annual growth of 33.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 38.20 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of -19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was pleased with the April update. The platform now has $5bn in investment capacity, with 40% in cash.

 Morgan Stanley suspects the company was gearing up for a busy period of acquisitions until the pandemic slowed the market.

Charter Hall has reiterated FY20 guidance and the broker notes this is typically conservative in terms of growth in funds under management.

Overweight rating, $9.05 target and In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $1.18
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.04, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 67.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.6, implying annual growth of 33.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.40 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of -19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CHC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett’s medium to long term outlook on Charter Hall Group is mostly unchanged despite covid-19. With a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 8.9-years and annual rent increases of 3.5%, the broker considers the portfolio as one the least-risky and most defensive among REITs.

The broker estimates a three-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% while assets under management (AUM) for FY21 are forecasted at $38.9bn and expected to rise to $57bn by FY25.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold with target price increased to $9 from $8.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $1.13
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.04, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.6, implying annual growth of 33.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of -19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW  CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $4.01

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Falling market rents have caused Citi to lower office income forecasts. While Sydney and Melbourne entered the pandemic restrictions in a strong position, with rents near historical highs and vacancies at their lows, economic conditions have deteriorated.

The broker believes the pandemic will significantly accelerate the structural tailwinds that have driven the strong performance of industrial property and the increase in e-commerce is likely to be sustained.

Citi currently forecasts office asset values to decline more than -15% while industrial asset values could hold up relatively well.

The broker retains a Buy rating as the company's defensive income stream is attractive. Target is reduced to $4.45 from $6.50.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.44
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of 4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $301.84

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS makes minor adjustments to its modelling to incorporate a -15% decline in plasma collection in April-June, with recovery thereafter.

This has resulted in -2% downgrades on average to earnings per share over the forecast period.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $342 target.

Target price is $342.00 Current Price is $301.84 Difference: $40.16
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $314.81, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 309.32 cents and EPS of 677.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 707.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 313.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 337.10 cents and EPS of 745.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 807.7, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 356.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTX  CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $24.99

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Accumulate (2) -

Caltex Australia’s Caltex refiner margin (CRM) for April was at US$4.83/bbl, just below Ord Minnett’s forecast while the Singapore weighted average margin (SWAM) was the lowest in over 10 years.

Loss-making Lytton refinery justifies a bringing-forward of the turnaround and inspection work to May 2020, comments the broker, with more savings announced recently and costs being the main focus.

The broker upgrades the replacement cost of sales operating profit (RCOP) EPS forecasts by 0.5% in 2020 while reducing it by -1.2% for 2021 due to higher diesel volumes and higher costs at Lytton.

Accumulate rating maintained with target price at $30.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.99 Difference: $5.01
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.39, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.8, implying annual growth of -28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.6, implying annual growth of 64.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS  DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $8.69

Citi rates DXS as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Falling market rents have caused Citi to lower office income forecasts. While Sydney and Melbourne entered the pandemic restrictions in a strong position, with rents near historical highs and vacancies at their lows, economic conditions have deteriorated.

The broker believes the pandemic will significantly accelerate the structural tailwinds that have driven the strong performance of industrial property and the increase in e-commerce is likely to be sustained.

Citi currently forecasts office asset values to decline more than -15% while industrial asset values could hold up relatively well.

Dexus Property is downgraded to Neutral from Buy as falling office values are considered a headwind. Target is reduced to $9.44 from $14.47.

Target price is $9.44 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $0.75
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.16, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.5, implying annual growth of -48.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.90 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.1, implying annual growth of 0.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ECX  ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $0.76

UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the company is delivering on its strategy despite the challenging backdrop. Cost optimisation is ahead of schedule. The broker maintains a conservative stance on the second half outlook, given the heightened economic uncertainty.

Covenant breaches are considered unlikely. EclipX remains a key pick for the broker, with upside risk to earnings, attractive valuation and sector consolidation a primary focus. Buy maintained. Target is raised to $1.45 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.69
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 53.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $3.90

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

After adjustments, first half operating earnings (EBITDA) beat Credit Suisse estimates. The agribusiness segment outperformed.

The broker observes the elimination of most debt sets up an attractive funding position. Moreover, rainfall has improved, which lays a foundation for crop production in 2020/21 to be well above average.

Outperform rating and $3.84 target.

Target price is $3.84 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 38.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 236.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.87 cents and EPS of 31.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 206.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

First half net profit was ahead of Macquarie's estimates. There is no interim dividend, as expected. All divisions are performing ahead of forecasts and the broker suggests the trading issues are now behind the company.

Oilseed crush margins are expected to remain favourable in the second half, and better soil moisture levels across large parts of eastern Australia support widespread planting of the FY21 crop.

Macquarie also points out that around 88% of Australia's barley exports to China come from Western Australia, currently in the centre of a trade stoush between the two countries.

Graincorp, however, is focused on the east coast. Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $4.79 from $4.35.

Target price is $4.79 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.89
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 38.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 206.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

First half results were better than expected but this is not a true reflection of the full year performance as the second half is likely to be loss-making, Morgans asserts.

The improved first half result was driven by higher grade throughput, a new rail contract and better oilseed crush margins. No guidance was provided for FY20.

Meanwhile, the cropping outlook for FY21 is far better and the broker expects the company will be profitable. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $3.56 from $3.52.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 38.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 206.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT  GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.04

Citi rates GPT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Falling market rents have caused Citi to lower office income forecasts. While Sydney and Melbourne entered the pandemic restrictions in a strong position, with rents near historical highs and vacancies at their lows, economic conditions have deteriorated.

The broker believes the pandemic will significantly accelerate the structural tailwinds that have driven the strong performance of industrial property and the increase in e-commerce is likely to be sustained.

Citi currently forecasts office asset values to decline more than -15% while industrial asset values could hold up relatively well.

GPT's rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral as the stock appears attractive to the broker, given relatively low gearing. Target is reduced to $4.49 from $6.17.

Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.45
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.51, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of -36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPE  PEOPLE INFRASTRUCTURE LTD

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services

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Overnight Price: $2.06

Morgans rates PPE as Add (1) -

People Infrastructure has guided for FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) in the range of $24-25m. Morgans expects the company will pay a final dividend of 4.5c.

The broker upgrades its numbers following the update, noting the drivers of earnings will be continued ramp up of hospitals and an increase in demand for IT personnel. Add rating maintained. Target rises to $2.80 from $2.66.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.74
If PPE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.81.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.84.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates PPE as Buy (1) -

People Infrastructure issued FY20 operating income guidance of $24m-25m, notably higher than Ord Minnett’s estimated $20.1m, driven by full Jobkeeper eligibility, good cost base management and improving operating conditions.

For FY21, the broker expects cost outs to be temporary but considers the company will continue to grow with nursing to rebound sharply and other parts of the business to remain stable.

Ord Minnett also notes People Infrastructure is well placed to absorb any covid-19 related impact. EPS estimates for FY20 and FY21 have been upgraded by 22% and 12%.

Buy rating maintained with target price of $2.84.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.78
If PPE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.35.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $85.29

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Rio Tinto has confirmed a delay for Oyu Tolgoi underground. The additional cost of the delay and mine re-design is expected to be -US$1.5bn.

Macquarie suggests upgrade momentum is strong and the spot price scenario is generating earnings in line with its forecasts for 2020, 47% and 80% higher for 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Outperform rating and $104 target retained.

Target price is $104.00 Current Price is $85.29 Difference: $18.71
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $96.37, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 586.58 cents and EPS of 893.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 831.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 525.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 448.47 cents and EPS of 756.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 788.8, implying annual growth of -5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 511.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLK  SEALINK TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $3.79

Ord Minnett rates SLK as Buy (1) -

SeaLink Travel Group expects domestic travel to make a staged return in the coming months assuming no second wave of covid-19.

Ord Minnett notes a number of the group’s assets are ideally positioned to benefit from domestic travel recovery. The broker has updated estimates to allow for the impact of easing in domestic travel restrictions and has downgraded EPS estimates by -29% in FY20 and -25% in FY21.

The broker sees scope for further earnings upgrades with Australia gradually opening up. The broker holds onto its Buy rating with target price at $5.25.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $1.46
If SLK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.69.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.62.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UMG  UNITED MALT GROUP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $4.10

Macquarie rates UMG as No Rating (-1) -

First half net profit was lower than Macquarie expected. The company has announced a $140m equity raising to strengthen the balance sheet.

While early days, United Malt has noted sequential demand improvement in May versus April. Customers are replenishing inventory and there is a pick up in craft and lager business as some premises are re-opening.

Macquarie cannot provide a rating and target at present.

Current Price is $4.10. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 26.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VVR  VIVA ENERGY REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.42

Morgan Stanley rates VVR as Underweight (5) -

The company has come to an agreement with Viva Energy ((VEA)) to internalise management. Going forward, Viva Energy REIT will be known as Waypoint REIT. Implementation date for the agreement is October 31, 2020.

Morgan Stanley observes there are not a lot of changes in operations as Waypoint has been self-sufficient, paying its own rent. Viva Energy currently does not earn a managing fee and all costs are passed through.

As the company is no longer encumbered by an external management agreement this will boost corporate appeal, Morgan Stanley points out. The broker highlights the "very acquisitive" Charter Hall ((CHC)) companies own 10% of Waypoint.

Underweight maintained. Target is $2.45. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.03
If VVR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -35.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates VVR as Hold (3) -

Viva Energy REIT announced internalisation of its management, a move supported by Ord Minnett. The REIT also announced a change in its name to Waypoint REIT (WPR), effective from May 18, 2020.

The broker does not expect covid-19 to have a major impact on its rental income and comments liquidity of $90m will be enough in the near term given the low-capex nature of the portfolio.

2020 EPS guidance has been reaffirmed with growth of 3.00–3.75%.

Hold rating reaffirmed with target price at $2.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If VVR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -35.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO  XERO LIMITED

Accountancy

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Overnight Price: $75.32

Citi rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

Medium-term earnings outlook appears solid to Citi, supported by the penetration of international markets and increased add-on products and services.

Still, the start to FY21 has been negatively affected by the pandemic, which the broker considers a function of the slowing of new business formation and as customers focus on more pressing priorities.

Average revenue per unit is likely to be negatively affected by downgrades and this in turn will affect gross margins. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $82 from $83.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $75.32 Difference: $6.68
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.92, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 514.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 303.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 192.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 154.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates XRO as Outperform (1) -

The FY20 result was in line with forecasts although slightly below in terms of revenue. Credit Suisse reduces FY21 revenue estimates by -4% and operating earnings (EBITDA) by -5%.

This was a quality result and the broker believes the stock offers best-in-class exposure to growth. Target is raised to $88 from $80. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $75.32 Difference: $12.68
If XRO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.92, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 264.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 303.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 57.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 129.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 154.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates XRO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

FY20 results revealed the company is executing well, although Macquarie notes the pandemic is creating uncertainty over the short term.

The main challenge is to drive subscriber business in Australasia to join the broader platform and this is likely to be difficult, given the pandemic.

Still, the broker notes the business is in the early stages of growth in an industry with structural tailwinds.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target is lowered to $75.00 from $80.50.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $75.32 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.92, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 42.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 176.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 303.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 128.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 154.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

FY20 revenue was up 30% and underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) were up 88%. No specific guidance was provided.

Morgan Stanley notes the company is monitoring subscriber additions, churn and other revenue sources and adjusting costs and capital in response.

The broker considers any softness in the stock a buying opportunity. Overweight rating maintained. Industry view is Attractive. Target is $80.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $75.32 Difference: $4.68
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.92, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 240.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 303.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 154.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates XRO as Lighten (4) -

Xero’s FY20 result was mostly in line with Ord Minnett’s below consensus expectations with the company providing limited information about the potential impact of covid-19. However, FY20 subscriber additions were slowing only towards March-end, notes the broker, indicating FY20 was minimally impacted by the pandemic.

The company did not provide an outlook commentary for FY21 but has decided to defer a price rise and improve payment terms for its small business suppliers to 10 days from April, reports Ord Minnett.

The broker has adjusted the FY21 net subscriber addition estimates to be -46% lower than FY20, while expecting average revenue per user (ARPU) to be mostly flat.

The stock is trading on a premium valuation on below-median revenue growth and Ord Minnett retains its Lighten recommendation with target price at $60.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $75.32 Difference: minus $15.32 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.92, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 990.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 303.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 154.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates XRO as Sell (5) -

Xero reported a maiden profit for FY20, although this was less than UBS expected. Revenue grew by 30% with growth in international business outstripping Australasia.

While UBS remains supportive of the company's strategy and acknowledges strong execution, there is uncertainty around operating trends over the short term and an unfavourable risk/reward on a longer term basis.

Hence, the broker retains a Sell rating and $58.50 target. The company provided little commentary on the first half outlook.

Target price is $58.50 Current Price is $75.32 Difference: minus $16.82 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.92, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 293.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 303.7.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.55 cents and EPS of 43.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 172.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 154.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ABP Abacus Property Group $2.34 Citi 2.47 4.12 -40.05%
ALG Ardent Leisure $0.34 Citi 0.55 1.74 -68.39%
BRG Breville Group $19.74 Credit Suisse 20.27 16.16 25.43%
CHC Charter Hall $7.87 Macquarie 9.31 9.11 2.20%
Ord Minnett 9.00 8.40 7.14%
CLW Charter Hall Long Wale Reit $4.01 Citi 4.45 6.50 -31.54%
DXS Dexus Property $8.69 Citi 9.44 14.47 -34.76%
ECX Eclipx Group $0.76 UBS 1.45 1.40 3.57%
GNC Graincorp $3.90 Macquarie 4.79 4.35 10.11%
Morgans 3.56 3.52 1.14%
GPT GPT Group $4.04 Citi 4.49 6.17 -27.23%
PPE People Infrastructure $2.06 Morgans 2.80 2.66 5.26%
Ord Minnett 2.84 2.49 14.06%
SLK Sealink Travel $3.79 Ord Minnett 5.25 5.82 -9.79%
UMG United Malt Group $4.10 Macquarie N/A 5.33 -100.00%
XRO Xero $75.32 Citi 82.00 83.00 -1.20%
Credit Suisse 88.00 80.00 10.00%
Macquarie 75.00 80.50 -6.83%
Summaries
ALG Ardent Leisure Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.34
BRG Breville Group Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $19.74
CHC Charter Hall Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.87
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.87
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.87
CLW Charter Hall Long Wale Reit Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.01
CSL CSL Buy - UBS Overnight Price $301.84
CTX Caltex Australia Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $24.99
DXS Dexus Property Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $8.69
ECX Eclipx Group Buy - UBS Overnight Price $0.76
GNC Graincorp Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.90
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.90
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.90
GPT GPT Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $4.04
PPE People Infrastructure Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.06
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.06
RIO Rio Tinto Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $85.29
SLK Sealink Travel Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.79
UMG United Malt Group No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.10
VVR Viva Energy Reit Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.42
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.42
XRO Xero Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $75.32
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $75.32
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $75.32
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $75.32
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $75.32
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $75.32
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

16

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

5

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

2

Friday 15 May 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.