Australian Broker Call

November 17, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 12:30 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AST - AUSNET SERVICES Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
AZJ - AURIZON HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
CGC - COSTA GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy

Overnight Price: $7.20

Macquarie rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the company's market after the investor presentation, which highlighted an increase in market share in the Chinese infant formula segment over the last two months.

This share increase comes on the back of improved availability of stock and strengthening demand. Macquarie believes there is ample opportunity for the company to capture additional market share and envisages upside risks to margins.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and increases the target to NZ$8.40 from NZ$6.35.

Current Price is $7.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.00, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.06 cents and EPS of 26.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.1, implying annual growth of 31.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AST  AUSNET SERVICES

Infrastructure & Utilities

Overnight Price: $1.85

Credit Suisse rates AST as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

First half results were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates amid strong volumes. The broker suspects the company is lagging behind its electricity distribution peers in delivering operating efficiencies.

The broker increases net profit estimates by 16.8% and 15.8% for FY18 and FY19 respectively, based on the first half performance. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $1.85 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0
If AST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.25 cents and EPS of 7.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.62 cents and EPS of 7.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of -14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

Overnight Price: $5.16

Macquarie rates AZJ as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company is working with other investors to restructure the port and coal business around Wiggins Island, Queensland. Macquarie finds the concept interesting, albeit with numerous challenges.

The main issue in the structure, the broker believes, is the take-or-pay obligations to the port which are material for the miners. Upside for Aurizon is likely to emerge from the lifting of volumes and the lowering of operating costs.

Target is $5.33. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral, as valuation is the core driver and the stock appears attractive against the target.

Target price is $5.33 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.17
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.92, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC  COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $6.60

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

The company has upgraded net profit guidance, as Macquarie suspected. Costa now expects a 20% lift in FY18 net profit versus the 10% lift that was previously flagged.

Macquarie expects positive momentum to continue in the next 6-12 months on the back of further joint venture potential. Outperform rating and $7 target maintained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $0.4
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 32.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CGC as Hold (3) -

The company has updated guidance, now expecting FY18 net profit growth of around 20%. Although the quantum of the increase is material, Ord Minnett suggests it was driven mainly by previously-announced corporate activity.

The broker upgrades earnings forecasts by 12% and 13% for FY18 and FY19 respectively. Of these upgrades, 4% and 5% respectively is on an organic basis.

Hold maintained. Target is raised to $6.43 from $5.01.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.43 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 32.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CGC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The company has upgraded FY18 guidance for net profit to be up 20%, versus prior guidance of a 10% increase. UBS suggests this has already been priced in.

The company attributes the upgrade to the increased contribution from African Blue. The broker believes the near and long-term opportunities have been priced in and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $6.80 from $5.70.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $0.2
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 32.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG  DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $3.70

Macquarie rates DHG as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -

Macquarie initiates coverage on Domain with a $3.40 target and Underperform rating following the separation from Fairfax ((FXJ)).

The broker considers the company well-positioned for growth because of the strong sector fundamentals as well as specific opportunities in certain market segments such as Queensland and commercial, where it is coming from a low base. Against this the current valuation appears challenging.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.66.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.04.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

Overnight Price: $7.19

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers the implications of the company's plan to implement an additional whole-of-portfolio quota share. Several factors have also encouraged the broker to assume a more generous future pay-out ratio.

While a higher proportion of exchange commission revenues provides greater stability for margins it also introduces other challenges, UBS asserts.

A growing lack of visibility in the P&L does partly offset the attraction of reduced volatility, and is one of the reasons that holds the broker back from signing up to this "broking" thesis. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $6.80 from $6.15.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.19 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.41, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.9, implying annual growth of -5.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 6.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

Overnight Price: $22.70

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse observes the company has been quietly making changes to its delivery options. With the entry of Amazon to this market, competition in deliveries, with additional cost from subsidised delivery, is likely to increase.

As of November, JB Hi-Fi's standard delivery fee is between -50-75% lower than in June and a range of additional delivery options have been introduced.

A pre-Christmas launch of Amazon appears increasingly likely and suggests to the broker a very "promotional" Christmas and downside risk to profitability in the first half - earlier than previously expected.

Underperform rating and $19.89 target.

Target price is $19.89 Current Price is $22.70 Difference: minus $2.81 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.58, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 196.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.1, implying annual growth of 33.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 181.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYO  MYOB LIMITED

Accountancy

Overnight Price: $3.71

Deutsche Bank rates MYO as Buy (1) -

MYOB will buy Reckon's ((RKN)) Accountant Group segment, a software provider to accountants in A&NZ. The acquisition is strategically sound, the broker suggests, adding to MYOB's existing accounting client base.

The ACCC may have concerns however, so the broker is not yet adjusting its valuation. Given MYOB plans to invest earnings generated by the acquired clients back into sales & marketing, the earnings impact is less relevant. Buy and $4.40 target retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0.69
If MYO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates MYO as Neutral (3) -

The company will acquire the assets of Reckon's ((RKN)) accountant group in Australasia for $180m. MYOB will reinvest earnings in the first two years to fund increased sales and marketing.

On this basis Macquarie estimates the accretion to earnings from the transaction is in the low single digits and will be higher after 2020, while being dilutive in the early years.

Neutral rating and $3.99 target maintained. While the broker envisages strategic merits in the acquisition the balance sheet is considered stretched.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0.28
If MYO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.77 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MYO as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers the potential acquisition of Reckon's ((RKN)) accountant group for $180m makes sense, as the deal could bolster MYOB's practice division. The enlarged accounting practice should accelerate SME growth, given the larger referral network.

The deal is accretive to earnings at an underlying level and whether the company has paid a full price depends on the rate of SME uptake, in the broker's opinion.

UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $3.60 target.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MYO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYR  MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

Overnight Price: $0.73

Deutsche Bank rates MYR as Hold (3) -

Woolworths SA provided a very weak trading update for David Jones, implying Myer has outperformed in recent months despite its own sales declining, the broker notes. DJs reduced discounting but also suffered disruption from store refurbishments and more recent sales numbers show an improving trend.

No change to the broker's Hold rating and 75c target.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.02
If MYR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of -12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

Overnight Price: $2.48

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse observes the company has bumped up its net cash position to over $300m at the end of October, courtesy of strong coal prices.

This feature, along with the company's recently commissioned study on Acland stage 3, has cause the share price to rally strongly.

In the broker's calculation, the current share price reflects stage 3 and more and an Underperform rating is retained.  Target is raised to $1.85 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 22.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 46.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of -22.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $5.76

Macquarie rates NST as Neutral (3) -

From the AGM, Macquarie observes the company seems very confident in both the near and longer-term outlook. Exploration remains a strong focus, although there are other growth opportunities on the table.

Excellence in underground mining remains the core discipline. Neutral and $5.40 target retained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.76 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting downside of -15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.1, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH  PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD

Paper & Packaging

Overnight Price: $5.73

Ord Minnett rates PGH as Hold (3) -

The company has announced a 1-for-9 entitlement offer to fund its latest acquisitions of CSI Asia, GPC Guangzhou and EPC Industries.

On the broker's estimates, the uplift is more than offset by a tepid outlook for the underlying business.

Hold rating retained. Target is lowered to $5.80 from $5.90.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.07
If PGH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.77, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.1, implying annual growth of 9.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $7.52

ADDED

Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley analysts suggest there could be upside risk to the tune of 2% if net inflows in H2 match the $600m reported for H1. The analysts note $143m of these inflows have come from two newly launched ASX listed funds.

In addition, performance fees of $18m are well above the $10m Morgan Stanley had penciled in. The analysts point out the obvious: performance fees can be very volatile.

Underweight rating and $4.40 price target left unchanged. Industry view In-Line. No changes made to estimates.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: minus $3.12 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting downside of -32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of -4.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

Overnight Price: $2.61

Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Competitor DP World has raised its port infrastructure charges, suggesting to Ord Minnett that the stevedoring industry could become more rational. The broker believes this should allay investor concerns about the industry.

The broker believes it makes more financial sense for competitors to DP World to raise their charges, rather than hope to gain market share. Buy rating and $3 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.39
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 38.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RKN  RECKON LIMITED

Accountancy

Overnight Price: $1.56

ADDED

Morgan Stanley rates RKN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley thinks shareholders will embrace the deal negotiated with MYOB ((MYO)) to sell Reckon's Accountant Group operations to the latter for $180m. The asset is valued at $38m on the balance sheet.

On the analysts' calculations, the remaining businesses are likely to deliver $15m in EBITDA and $8m in cash EBIT in FY17. Part of the capital gain will be realised in New Zealand where there is no capital gains tax, point out the analysts.

Equal-weight rating and In-Line sector view retained. Target left untouched at $1.42.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If RKN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of -2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

Overnight Price: $3.30

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Citi upgrades manganese ore price forecasts, given stronger-than-expected Chinese demand. The higher prices have driven 8-12% upgrades to earnings per share over the next three years.

Target rises to $3.50 from $3.30. Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.2
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.10 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.17 cents and EPS of 18.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of -8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDA  SPEEDCAST INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment

Overnight Price: $4.82

Morgans rates SDA as Hold (3) -

The company has completed the acquisition of UltiSat ahead of expectations and indicated the energy sector has experienced its third quarter of stable revenue and the pipeline is growing. Harris CapRock is almost fully integrated and Morgans suggests the downside is dwindling.

The broker removes a -20% discount to valuation, given the integration is progressing and the outlook is improving. Hold rating retained and target raised to $4.77 from $3.87.

Target price is $4.77 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SDA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.58 cents and EPS of 27.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.99 cents and EPS of 34.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 36.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK  SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services

Overnight Price: $19.07

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie upgrades earnings forecasts on the back of stronger domestic job advertising. Further acceleration of growth trends comes against a backdrop of unemployment falling to 5.4%.

With significant opportunities both locally and in international markets Macquarie believes the company is well-positioned across the short and long-term horizon.

Outperform. Target is raised to $18.70 from $17.20.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $19.07 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.04, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.10 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of -37.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.80 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 16.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFH  SPECIALTY FASHION GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

Overnight Price: $0.20

Citi rates SFH as Neutral (3) -

After a long time at the helm CEO Gary Perlstein will step down. Citi observes this comes at a time of a shrinking store portfolio and suspects the company may explore alternatives to realise value.

The broker believes his departure is poorly timed, given the patchy trading environment, but could signal a change in direction, in which the company accelerates store closures and places even more emphasis on better performing brands.

Neutral/High Risk. Target price is 25c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.05
If SFH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.76.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

Overnight Price: $21.65

ADDED

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of the company's AGM, Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating, while lifting the price target to $27.30 from $26.70. In-Line industry view retained.

The analysts see potential upside from stabilising collection centres in Australia while investors' concern about fee cuts should be "managed" by the company through restructuring and M&A, suggest the analysts.

Irrespective of shorter term risks, Morgan Stanley remains of the view the shares are too cheaply priced given long term growth and balance sheet flexibility.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $21.65 Difference: $5.65
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.39, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 80.70 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.8, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 86.90 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.6, implying annual growth of 6.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

Overnight Price: $5.02

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Citi remains cautious about a prospective bid from Harbour Energy, reportedly expected to offer $5.30 a share.The broker is cautious about a bid proceeding as this is not the first be to speculated on.

Despite a Neutral rating, the broker considers the outlook for the underlying business the strongest it has been, as LNG growth assets deliver and new management demonstrates strong capital discipline. Target is $4.71.

Target price is $4.71 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Harbour Energy is reportedly preparing a $5.30 bid for Santos. Credit Suisse suggests, if nothing else, this consortium of global energy investors is a credible entity.

The broker also suspects the Santos board is not likely to accept the bid at that level. Outperform retained. Target is $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos has revealed it received a bid from US private equity firm Harbour Energy back in August at $4.55, which was rejected, and press reports suggest the firm is preparing to come back with $5.30. While this represents a 21% premium to the current trading price, the broker calculates only a 2% control premium.

A typical 20-30% premium would put valuation at $6.24 to $6.76. Santos also rejected a bid at $6.88 back in 2015, and given local sensitivity to the company's gas assets, FIRB would likely be a hurdle.

The broker retains Buy and a $4.95 target in isolation, but acknowledges increasing corporate upside risk.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.62 cents and EPS of 17.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.86 cents and EPS of 22.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Santos is Morgan Stanley's favourite pick in the oil and gas sector, and the analysts continue to see upside from higher oil prices, as well as from management's cost reduction initiatives and reserve upgrades over time.

The reported approach by the Harbour Energy consortium is seen as "opportunistic".

Overweight rating retained. Target is $5.20. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.18
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.55 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates STO as Sell (5) -

Media speculation suggests Harbour Energy is preparing an all-cash takeover bid. This follows an earlier approach in August which was rejected by the Santos board.

The company has stated it is not currently engaged with Harbour Energy relating to a change of control transaction. UBS suggests it may make it more difficult for the consortium to move ahead with a formal offer, given the  press speculation and share price reaction.

Sell rating and $4.05 target retained.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $42.15

Ord Minnett rates WES as Hold (3) -

The company's update at its AGM has led Ord Minnett to modestly reduce earnings estimates. Bunnings is expected to continue to perform well following industry consolidation and a strong position in Australasia.

How Coles responds to ceding market leadership in sales growth to Woolworths ((WOW)) is of great interest to the broker.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $44 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $42.15 Difference: $1.85
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.08, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.2, implying annual growth of -0.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 240.00 cents and EPS of 274.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.9, implying annual growth of 4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 228.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
A2M THE A2 MILK CO Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.20
AST AUSNET SERVICES Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.85
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.16
CGC COSTA GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.60
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.60
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.60
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS Initiation of coverage with Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.70
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.19
JBH JB HI-FI Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $22.70
MYO MYOB Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.71
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.71
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.71
MYR MYER Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $0.73
NHC NEW HOPE CORP Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.48
NST NORTHERN STAR Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.76
PGH PACT GROUP Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.73
PTM PLATINUM Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.52
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.61
RKN RECKON Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.56
S32 SOUTH32 Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.30
SDA SPEEDCAST INTERN Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.82
SEK SEEK Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $19.07
SFH SPECIALTY FASHION Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.20
SHL SONIC HEALTHCARE Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $21.65
STO SANTOS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.02
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.02
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.02
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.02
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $5.02
WES WESFARMERS Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $42.15
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

5

Friday 17 November 2017

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.