Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGY as Outperform (1) -

Argosy Minerals has completed extension drilling at Rincon and early results confirm brine-bearing thickness at depth.

An update on the lithium brine resource is scheduled for late 2023 and Macquarie believes the extension results present upside to the resource base and mineable inventory.

Despite the positive early indications from extension drilling, the broker suspects the market will be focused on the commissioning of the fully autonomous 2000tpa LCE plant. Updates on offtakes could also help to validate product quality and consistency.

Outperform retained. Target is $0.40.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.21
If AGY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

The French government has imposed a non-deductible levy of 4.6% over EUR120m of revenue on each of the airport and tollroad concessions. Macquarie calculates this translates to -EUR135m in "lost cash flow" in 2024 for Atlas Arteria, or -5c a share.

The outcome is mitigated by expectations of APRR refusing to pay a voluntary contribution and a reduction in land tax.

The broker also notes higher bond yields are hurting valuation and affecting the economies in which the company operates. Neutral rating. Target reduces to $5.80 from $6.15.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.19
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

The French government budget proposes a new tax that, if implemented, Morgan Stanley estimates could have a negative impact on free cash flow for Atlas Arteria in 2025 of -3.7c per security.

The broker considers the recent underperformance of the stock an overreaction, noting APRR reserves its rights and may seek compensation while there will will be a quarterly traffic update from the company on October 20.

Target is $6.66. Equal-weight. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $6.66 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $1.05
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate the latest commodity price outlook and is cautious about Alumina Ltd because of the upcoming Western Australian EPA public comment on AWAC being a potential negative catalyst.

Underperform maintained. Target is reduced to $0.88 from $0.95.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.22, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Brickworks reported an FY23 profit 9% ahead of Bell Potter, albeit down -32% year on year after cycling large Oakdale
development profits realised in FY22.

Property did most of the heavy lifting with net rent, revaluations and development profit all beating the broker's expectations despite rising funding costs and cap rates.

Investments, mainly Soul Pattinson ((SOL)), were in-line while Building Products Australia/USA missed by -5-7% on the impact of unit labour and electricity costs.

The outlook is positive for the industrial real estate segment, to offset clearly weakening conditions for the bricks businesses. Bell Potter believes Brickworks' property trust is excessively undervalued. Buy retained. Target falls to $28.50 from $29.00.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $24.07 Difference: $4.43
If BKW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Citi remains positive on Brickworks despite expectations of softer earnings in FY24 because of the timing of property development completions and the cycling of a large profit on a land sale.

The broker believes the business provides a unique landbank exposure as industrial assets continue to be in strong demand, while approved and serviced industrial land remains in short supply.

The company's investments have also sustained a strong track record, such as Soul Pattinson ((SOL)). Buy rating retained. Target is lifted to $28.75 from $28.50.

Target price is $28.75 Current Price is $24.07 Difference: $4.68
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

The FY23 result from Brickworks was largely in line with Macquarie's expectations. Margins were better than expected in building products while property outperformed slightly.

The broker notes FY24 will be affected by a slowdown in construction activity and less development activity in property, with no realisations in FY24 pressuring the outlook.

Macquarie lowers FY24 and FY25 estimates for EPS by -2% and -33%, respectively. Neutral retained. Target rises to $25.00 from $24.05.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $24.07 Difference: $0.93
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BKW as Add (1) -

Morgans described the FY23 results from Brickworks as "reasonable" with EBITDA in line with expectations. The broker was slightly surprised by the share price reaction, down -6.4% at the close, and perceives there were two factors underpinning this: a headline decline in EBITDA and soft commentary surrounding building products.

The broker points out the industrial development pipeline remains strong and management expects a significant increase in rental income over coming years.

The bricks business benefited from a backlog of work in FY23 and this is starting to soften, yet the managing director has called out improved inquiry levels and the potential for the downturn in housing demand to be relatively short.

Morgans retains an Add rating and raises the target to $26.70 from $26.10.

Target price is $26.70 Current Price is $24.07 Difference: $2.63
If BKW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BKW as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett observes property has been key driver of earnings for Brickworks over the past five years but will come under pressure as capitalisation rates increase. Weak housing markets, both domestically and in the US, are expected to affect building product earnings.

The FY23 result was well below the broker's forecasts with the key difference being lower-than-expected property earnings.

Ord Minnett observes, in North America, market conditions are similar to Australia, with lower home construction activity expected in FY24 although the company's exposure to the more buoyant non-residential segment should provide some support.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target lowered to $26.20 from $28.00.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $24.07 Difference: $2.13
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BKW as Buy (1) -

The FY23 EBIT result from Brickworks was marginally below UBS estimates because of a weaker-than-expected contribution from investments.

Building products are expected to face headwinds from the second half of FY24 as the company tries to raise price in the face of elevated input costs and despite softer volumes.

UBS expects property will fare better as strong rental increases help to offset rising cap rates. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $28.10 from $29.00.

Target price is $28.10 Current Price is $24.07 Difference: $4.03
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Boss Energy is due to re-start the Honeymoon uranium mine, expected to ramp up to 2.45mlb/per annum. Macquarie notes there is potential upside to production levels and the life of the mine, given strong recent results from exploration.

Higher long-term uranium forecasts and increasing the life of mine by four years drives 7-20% increases to the broker's estimates for EPS from FY27 onwards.

Adjusting the valuation methodology to reflect momentum means a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform, while the target is raised to $4.50 from $3.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for BlueScope Steel in view of revisions to commodity prices and macro developments.

While the company has guided to first half EBIT of $700-770m, the broker points out the spread outcomes at North Star could be -US$50-60/t incrementally worse than guided, and raw material input costs in Australia are also higher than previously assumed.

Given BlueScope Steel's ability to manage North Star utilisation during the pandemic Macquarie expects the strike by US automotive workers will have a limited impact on operations although discounts to benchmark could widen in alternative markets.

Neutral retained. Target reduced to $19.00 from $20.80.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $19.28 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.00, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes the latest web traffic trends for US-based luxury department stores in comparison to mid-range peers showing some
rebounding trends with the commencement of the Fall fashion season.

The broker points to Cettire’s recent web traffic trends continuing well ahead of other luxury platforms as the company grows its global presence.

Bell Potter believes Cettire will continue to outperform its peer group given a 0.5% market share in a large personal luxury goods market, which could remain relatively resilient to other discretionary categories in the soft consumer environment.

Buy and $4.00 target retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $1.06
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Share price strength has triggered a downgrade in Macquarie's rating of Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Outperform. Target is steady at $4.80.

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate the latest commodity price outlook. The broker raises iron ore and hard coking coal forecasts for 2023 and 2025 but reduces 2024 estimates.

In iron ore, the broker prefers Mineral Resources and Champion Iron to Deterra Royalties and Mount Gibson.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.06
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LRS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Latin Resources has announced the results of a Preliminary Economic Assessment of its 100%-owned Colina lithium project in Brazil. The PEA in aggregate beat the initial notional development scenario which supported Bell Potter's valuation.

The two-phase development reduces upfront permitting requirements thereby compressing the project’s time to first production.

The broker expects material value accretion as Latin Resources adds to the Colina mineral resource estimate and defines its production potential and path to development.

Target rises to 47c from 37c, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.24
If LRS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Meteoric Resources has released the first round of metallurgical testwork conducted on diamond core samples from its Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project. The results indicate uniformity across the project and lithology, with little derivation in recoveries between the clay and transitional zones.

Bell Potter views the project as being attractively positioned, anticipating Meteoric will look to de-risk the project over the next 12 months, with further diamond drilling increasing the Resource confidence, metallurgical test work optimising leach recoveries and the progression of a preliminary economic assessment.

Speculative Buy and 40c target retained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.17
If MEI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate the latest commodity price outlook, observing commodity prices are generally resilient for bulk miners although cost pressures continue. The broker continues to look to Chinese stimulus as the next leg of support for bulks.

The broker raises iron ore and hard coking coal forecasts for 2023 and 2025 but reduces 2024 estimates. In iron ore, the broker prefers Mineral Resources and Champion Iron to Deterra Royalties and Mount Gibson. Outperform. Target is raised to $84 from $83.

Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $66.94 Difference: $17.06
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.43, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -

A downgrade to Nufarm's FY23 earnings guidance is of limited surprise to Bell Potter given the headwinds reported by sector peers through this third quarter.

However, the extent of the downgrade is more modest than the broker would have anticipated and reflects a sooner-than-expected refill of channel inventories that is likely to be ongoing through the first quarter FY24.

Bell Potter anticipates a reversal of weak trends in FY24 and notes Nufarm is trading at a material discount to both ag-chem and seed peers, which the broker does not see as warranted given outperformance in ag-chem and the growth pathway in seeds.

Target falls to $6.75 from $7.00, Buy retained.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $2.03
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Nufarm shares have been under pressure since the release of H1 financials and Citi analysts believe challenging market conditions have by now been truly accounted for.

The company's profit warning, implying market consensus needs a reset of circa -4%, is predominantly the result of weakness in crop protection, highlights the broker.

Citi analysts also believe current forecasts for FY24, including its own, look too optimistic. Buy. Target $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $2.18
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the global environment for agricultural chemicals is tough yet Nufarm is relatively resilient.

The company has downgraded guidance to a fall in FY23 EBITDA of -2-4%, to $430-440m, which the broker notes compares to global peers reporting declines of -20% on average.

It is a case of a "very strong" seeds performance and focus on higher margin products that has insulated the business to some degree and, over the longer term, the broker considers the seeds potential is undervalued. Outperform rating. Target is $6.25.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $1.53
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Equal-weight (3) -

Nufarm has downgraded earnings estimates for FY23 and guided to higher leverage. Morgan Stanley notes a shift in leverage is again driven by high receivables.

Unfavourable weather conditions could pose a risk to FY24 earnings growth as demand is reduced for crop protection products, given the dry conditions in Australia, although the broker acknowledges this could bring more favourable conditions in other markets.

The broker likes  the seed technology business, which appears to be gaining traction, while the FY26 targets reflect strong growth ambitions and there is demonstrable progress being made towards the target.

Equal-weight rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $7.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.78
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Hold (3) -

Nufarm has revised its guidance for FY23, with the results reported on November 15, now expecting EBITDA of $430-440m, down -1.5-3.7% on FY22. The company has indicated some softness in crop protection was offset by a strong performance in seed technologies.

Given the timing of sales, the company will now report a large outflow in operating cash and gearing metrics will rise above its target range.

Morgans is not surprised as many of the company's competitors have issued downgrades in recent months because of adverse seasonal conditions, weak selling prices and lower sales because of elevated inventory.

The broker now downgrades its estimates to the mid point of revised guidance and retains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $5.00 from $6.64.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.28
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NUF as Accumulate (2) -

In the wake of Nufarm's lowering of FY23 guidance, Ord Minnett reduces estimates for earnings per share by -19% and the dividend forecast by -17%.

Long-term assumptions still stand and the broker assesses the company is on track for FY26 revenue targets of more than $4.6bn, via increased customer relevance and market share. Accumulate maintained along with a $7.70 target.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $2.98
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -

UBS asserts the trading update from Nufarm reveals just how significant its outperformance is compared with peers. The stock has underperformed the ASX200 index by -20% since its May result and the broker believes a key driver has been negative earnings updates from global crop protection peers.

The trading update flags EBITDA for FY23 of $430-440m which the broker points out at the midpoint implies a flat second half.

Structural tailwinds within seeds are expected to be the earnings engine for Nufarm and this underpins UBS forecasts for a three-year growth rate in EPS of 15%. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.30.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $2.28
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy continues to target first production at Langer Heinrich for the first quarter of 2024. The main positive, Macquarie asserts, is that the company has numerous uranium offtakes with global counterparties.

A higher long-term uranium forecast means 7-17% increases to the broker's estimates for EPS from FY27 onwards. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $1.30 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.22
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Weaker lithium pricing has forced Citi to lower forecasts for Pilbara Minerals. The broker believes market weakness is the direct result of weaker-than-expected battery production plans.

Conditions will change, Citi assures, it's simply a matter of when. Target price loses -10c to $4.70. Neutral.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.48
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

On further analysis of the Premier Investments FY23 result, Citi notes the decline in gross profit margins was greater than expected amid industry-wide promotional activity commencing in the second half.

Citi is also encouraged there was no growth in labour costs over the second half against sales growth at 1.5%. Rent also appears to be lower.

Looking ahead, global sales declined by -2% for the first six weeks of FY24, which compares favourably to the broker's expectations for a contraction of -6% in the first half.

The company envisages opportunity in expanding Peter Alexander, with six new locations confirmed to open in the first half. Developments at Smiggle are also encouraging for Citi with partners to open seven freestanding stores before Christmas.

Neutral rating retained, while the price target has gained 20c to $24.90 target on an 7% upgrade to the FY24 EBIT forecast. Citi predicts it will be a tougher task to keep a lid on costs this year.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $24.58 Difference: $0.32
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes a weaker consumer affected the second half of FY23 for Premier Investments, with like-for-like sales slowing and the gross margin falling by around -300 basis points to 60.5%.

A weak macro environment is likely to remain an overhang on the stock, although potential catalysts associated with the company's strategic review could provide some support for the share price.

As this is still to play out, Macquarie retains a Neutral rating. Target is steady at $23.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $24.58 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Premier Investments is well placed, with a lot of levers to pull despite the outlook. FY23 results were in line with expectations and previous guidance.

If cyclical headwinds intensify, Morgan Stanley assesses the company can benefit from the acceleration in the offshore expansion of Smiggle, with a new agreement with a wholesale partner to open 60 new freestanding stores in the Middle East in the next 10 years.

The business also has a good record on cost control and there are options on the balance sheet for increasing shareholder value either via mergers and acquisitions or buybacks. Target is reduced to $32.00 from $32.25. Overweight rating retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $24.58 Difference: $7.42
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PMV as Lighten (4) -

FY23 sales and operating profits from Premier Investments were in line with expectations, having already been revealed. At current prices Ord Minnett suggests the shares are significantly overvalued given sales momentum is deteriorating.

Further weakening in trading conditions is forecast for Australian discretionary items and the broker asserts the market is underestimating the risk of the hurt to operating profit margins.

Further international expansion of Peter Alexander and Smiggle brands into continental Europe provides the long-term upside. Lighten retained along with a $19.50 target.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $24.58 Difference: minus $5.08 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.19, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNV as Reinstate Coverage with Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett reinstates coverage on PolyNovo, white labelling from Morningstar with a Lighten rating and $1 target. The broker suspects the market is too optimistic regarding the speed and extent of the commercial roll-out and is underestimating competitive pressures.

The market also appears "overly excited" about potential indications of the NovoSorb technology.

Broader indications, including hernia repair, breast augmentation and reconstruction, are being considered and would expand the addressable market yet these are still in the very early stages. A five-year revenue growth forecast of 26% is forecast to FY28.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If PNV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate the latest commodity price outlook, observing commodity prices are generally resilient for bulk miners although cost pressures continue. The broker continues to look to Chinese stimulus as the next leg of support for bulks.

The broker raises iron ore and hard coking coal forecasts for 2023 and 2025 but reduces 2024 estimates. Rio Tinto's target is reduced to $112 from $114 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $112.40 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $115.67, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

Citi sings the praises of what it believes is a high quality company, but then explains why it remains cautious on the immediate outlook for Reliance Worldwide; the potential for inventory unwind in the retail channel.

More than half of all sales in the Americas run through Home Deport and Lowe's, the broker points out.

Upon further investigation, Citi concludes the combination of elevated inventory and consensus estimates of improving cash conversion from the big boxes, suggests the risks of further inventory unwinds are not immaterial.

Hence, Neutral rating remains in place, with a price target of $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $0.09
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi expects the share price of South32 to rebound from recent lows because spot commodity prices are now substantially higher than what was expected for FY24.

Hard coking coal and alumina/aluminium prices are up 25% and 5%, respectively. The stock was hardest hit with earnings downgrades post the FY23 results, but given the underperformance Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is unchanged at $3.80.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.53
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate the latest commodity price outlook. Long-term price increases of 3-4% are incorporated for copper and zinc.

Sandfire Resources remains the broker's key producer in terms of base metals. Outperform retained. Target is raised to $7.50 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: $1.44
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SGR as Add (1) -

Star Entertainment has announced a $750m equity raising and $450m debt package.

As a result of the offer, around 1.25bn new shares will be issued, representing around 77% of the existing shares on issue, at $0.60 each. Morgans believes the announcement provides some added certainty for investors.

The company has indicated operating conditions have stabilised and revenue for FY24 to date aligns broadly with the update provided at the FY23 result.

Morgans anticipates a "robust summer" in Sydney as the company resumes complementary alcohol service to its VIP members and benefits from an increase in inbound tourism. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.90 from $1.20.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.3
If SGR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting upside of 55.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SRL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate the latest commodity price outlook. Long-term price increases of 3-4% are incorporated for copper and zinc.

Sunrise Energy Metals has one of the largest reductions in its target, to $0.78 from $1.16, largely because of cobalt and nickel price reductions.

Earnings per share reductions are also affected by increased dilution as the broker changes its equity funding scenario. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.01
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Reinstate Coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS reinstates coverage of Syrah Resources with a Buy rating and $1.10 target. The Balama graphite mine in Mozambique accounts for the bulk of valuation and the mine was "effectively turned off" in May/June because of the depressed market conditions.

Yet with EV demand growth expected to quintuple to 2030, UBS envisages robust growth for global battery demand and in turn the anode material for which natural graphite is a feedstock.

The planned commissioning of Vidalia in the US in the fourth quarter of 2023 is considered a catalyst for the stock as it aims to expand downstream, a development UBS asserts is well supported by policymakers and the industry.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.655
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 147% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 110.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage on Talga Group with a Buy rating and $2.20 target. The company is seeking to produce a fully integrated resource, with its flagship Vittangi project in Sweden aiming to produce a high-grade natural graphite anode product to service the EU electric vehicle market.

There are several areas that differentiate the business from other graphite/anode operators in that Talga Group plans only to sell anode material, potentially shielding it from the volatility of the Chinese-dominated market. This will be produced using Sweden's renewable energy resource.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $1.02
If TLG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 87.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

UBS observes signs the luxury wine market is accelerating in North America and points out 36% of the Treasury Wine Estates FY22 America's revenue was in luxury wine (over US$30/bottle).

A further 56% of revenue was in premium (US$8-30/bottle), although the portfolio is skewed to the lower end of that range.

The broker remains confident the company can execute on its luxury portfolio, particularly Frank Family Vineyards as supply is judiciously added. Buy rating and $13.75 target.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $12.17 Difference: $1.58
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources