Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Aussie Broadband has announced an indicative, conditional bid to buy 100% of the Symbio ((SYM)) business for a blended cash and scrip price equivalent of $3.15 and is entering a three-week period of exclusive due diligence.

The Symbio board intends to recommend the bid subject to binding documentation.

The price includes $2.36 cash (including up to a 35c Symbio dividend), and 0.192 Aussie Broadband shares for each Symbio share, and represents a 19.3% premium to Symbio's most recent close and a 10.5% premium to the lapsed Superloop ((SLC)) bid. It includes mix and match provisions, advises Ord Minnett.

Ord Minnett says the bid represents a discount to Aussie Broadband's forecast FY24 enterprise value/earnings (EBITDA) multiple (7x compared with 10.2x) and believes the bid could be 6% to 11% EPS accretive to the company in year one.

The broker says the company theoretically can fund the cash side of the transaction with debt while maintaining a respectable net debt to EBITDA ratio.

Rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy pending further details. Target price rises to $4.15 from $3.84.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.11
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Downgrade to Sell from Lighten (5) -

Ord Minnett downgrades ALS Ltd's rating to Sell from Lighten, expecting a slowing in its commodities business in FY24, which constitutes the majority of earnings.

While the broker expects demand for battery minerals will support the company over the long term, the near to medium term looks less encouraging. Given the company is barely earning its cost of capital including goodwill given recent expansion, the broker considers the company to be materially overvalued.

The less-cyclical Life Sciences segment is looking chirpier - the broker expecting a compound annual growth rate of 10%, compared with 1% for Commodities, but its weighting is insufficient to sway the earnings profile. Ord Minnett observes the company plans to raise Life Science's contribution to group revenue to 60% (Commodities comprises just under 50%).

Target price is steady at $8.40. The broker's 61c FY24 EPS forecast equates to a 3.7% partly franked yield.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: minus $2.74 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.66, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett expects the proposed increase in non-income tax at APPR in France (Atlas Arteria's major asset) will receive parliamentary approval late this year.

The proposal will raise APRR's non-income taxes by 42% in 2024, says the broker.

The broker also observes it has been a difficult year for the company but believes it is now trading near fair value, with an attractive yield of 7% balanced by a short average concession life and risks relating to Dulles Greenway.

Hold rating and $5.85 target price retained.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.44
If ALX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has identified Eagers Automotive as a key pick of the reporting season, given the company's capital allocation, strategic execution, and setup for the coming financial year. 

The broker expects sustainable earnings, supported by elevated backlogs and ongoing demand for electric vehicles, have potential to drive a re-rate for the company. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $16.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: $2.13
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Buy (1) -

Avita Medical warns approval for Recell Go looks likely to be delayed between four and six months, following the issue of a Substantive Information Request from the FDA. The company will collect additional patient skin samples to accommodate expanded analysis. 

As Bell Potter points out, this pushes approval to mid-2024, but at this point the broker retains its forecast for FY24 revenues of $86m. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.85 from $7.45.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $3.27
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 81.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVH as Add (1) -

Approval for Recell Go has been delayed by between four to six months, suggests Morgans, as the FDA in the US has requested additional information.

The broker had not previously incorporated a step-up of sales into forecasts for Recell Go and leaves its $6.74 target unchanged for Avita Medical. Add.

The main reason for the delay is time needed for a different method of statistical analysis to compare suspended skin cells from the automated process (Recell Go) and the current method of using Recell (manual disaggregation), explain the analysts.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $3.16
If AVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 81.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter is anticipating a strong first half result from Catapult International, including revenue growth of 15% and annual contract growth of 17%.

The company has guided for strong, low churn annual contract growth over the full year, as well as continued cost margin improvements and positive free cash flow. 

The broker expects a strong first half result could prove a share price catalyst. The Buy rating and target price of $1.35 are both retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.28
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CKF as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector-earnings to be pressured. The broker also expects a shift to preparing meals at home over eating out.

The good news is the broker sees signs of easing costs in global food commodity prices, suggesting Collins Foods is undervalued.

All up the broker spies likely lower operating margins for the industry.

Accumulate rating and $14 target price retained.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: $4.85
If CKF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.99, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CNI as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett re-initiates coverage of Centuria Capital with an Accumulate rating and $1.75 target price.

The company suspended trading of the company last year after the share price tanked but now considers the shares to be -21% undervalued.

The broker says the market is focussing on the near term rather than long-term growth opportunities from new funds and inflows.

Ord Minnett expects funds under management will "stagnate" for three years as redemptions and falling property prices offset new inflows, but expects funds under management growth to rise to 5% for the remainder of the 10-year forecast period.

Given no more than $900m of its $21bn in funds under management is eligible for withdrawal in FY24 and roughly the same in FY25, the broker expects the company will easily wait out the next few years.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.425
If CNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker sees signs of easing costs in global food commodity prices and forecasts a switch to preparing meals from eating out.

All up, the broker suspects lower operating margins are on the cards and that competition between Australian grocers will rise, and consumers will veer to private label products for Woolworths  or Coles, or discounter Aldi.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Lighten rating retained. Target price is $14.50.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $15.38 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.65, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Computershare has announced the sale of its US Mortgage Servicing business for around US$720m.

After incorporating this sale into forecasts along with a mark to markets exercise for interest income, the broker increases its target to $28 from $26.

Macquarie's sensitivity analysis reveals each 25bps movement in bond yields for the company's portfolio mix equates to an around 1.5% impact on group EPS. Most forward curves have increased since the FY23 result, explains the analyst.

The Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.82 Difference: $2.18
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as No Rating (-1) -

Computershare has sold its US mortgage services business for US$720m, a move Morgan Stanley expects will be earnings per share accretive.

The broker points out the segment has recently reported weak returns, and its sale should boost the company's already strong cash position and allow for capital-light growth. 

Morgan Stanley expects financial outcomes to be broadly reassuring for investors, but looks to how Computershare will deal with loss of scale moving forward.

The broker is currently not rated on the stock and has not provided a target price. 

Current Price is $25.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

Morgans feels the US$720m sale of Computershare's US Mortgage Services business is both positive and achieved at a reasonable price. It's thought proceeds can be deployed more constructively in other areas.

The transaction is expected to close early in Q4 this year and should not materially impact FY24 EPS guidance, suggests the analyst.

The target rises to $28.93 from $26.40 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $28.93 Current Price is $25.82 Difference: $3.11
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett considers the sale of Computershare's low-returning US mortgage servicing business a positive development. With mortgage servicing the only segment consistently incurring losses, its sale will free up capital for higher-returning investment. 

The sale is expected to lift Computershare's operating margins to an average 38% per year over the five years to FY28, which is an improvement on Ord Minnett's previously estimated 35% margins. 

The Hold rating and target price of $25.00 are retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $25.82 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Buy (1) -

In what UBS considers to be a positive outcome for Computershare, the company has announced the US$720m sale of its US mortgage services to Rithm Capital. The broker points out the company has achieved a sound price for a low-return and capital intensive division. 

The broker feels the divestment not only simplifies Computershare, but allows the market to focus on the company's core, highly cash generative, activities. No changes to full year earnings per share guidance. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $33.00 from $30.00.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $25.82 Difference: $7.18
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers CSL112 a key pipeline product for CSL and base case assumptions imply a valuation of around $30/share. 

CSL112 is a plasma-derived apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) aimed at the prevention of a major adverse cardiovascular event
(MACE) shortly after an initial myocardial infarction (AMI/heart attack).

The broker incorporates a risked valuation of only $5/share into its forecasts, up from $3.50/share and notes data from the Phase 3 Aegis-II trial is due by early-2024.

The CSL target slips to $321 from $326 after adjusting the broker's in-house risk free rate and assumption for terminal rate of growth. Outperform.

Target price is $321.00 Current Price is $248.71 Difference: $72.29
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CXO as Sell (5) -

Following FY23 results for Core Lithium, Citi lowers its target price to 35c from 38c and retains its Sell rating. Before possibly turning more positive, the analysts await an update on recoveries pending plant trials and engineering studies.

FY23 reported revenue missed forecasts by the broker and consensus, with the total figure excluding some prepayment revenue not settled.

Management and Tesla are seeking to resolve a potential legal claim by Tesla without litigation.

FY24 production guidance is unchanged. Shipments into the company's long-term offtake agreements with Yahua and Ganfeng commenced in early September.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DEG as Buy (1) -

De Grey Mining has released the Definitive Feasibility Study for its Hemi project, with the results largely as expected by Bell Potter. The broker considers the release of the report to be a key de-risking milestone for the project, and confirms Hemi as a global Tier 1 asset.

The study outlines five open-pit ore mines, with combined reserves of 120.8m tonnes, to be processed over a twelve year mine life. Pre-production capital costs are estimated at -$1,345m, with development including the construction of a 10m tonne per annum processing plant. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.80 from $1.93.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.735
If DEG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 60.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The good news is the broker sees signs of easing costs in global food commodity prices, which it expects will support fast-food restaurants.

All up, Ord Minnett spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks, which could work also work in Domino's Pizza Enterprises' favour.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price is $68.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $50.22 Difference: $17.78
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.33, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest remains elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker also spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks and considers Endeavour Group to be undervalued and therefore less exposed.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price is $6.10.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.89
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.95, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes a disconnect between large-cap gold miners and small caps, the latter underperforming by roughly -44% over the past year, and that this is starting to unwound as the gold price rises.

The broker says that continued strength in gold prices could trigger a shift to less expensive, more leveraged small caps and highlights Gold Road Resources.

Buy rating and $2.20 target price.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.625
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 32.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker sees signs of easing costs in global food commodity prices and forecasts a switch to preparing meals from eating out.

All up, the broker suspects lower operating margins are on the cards 

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, the broker spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Hold rating retained. Target price is $3.90

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.06
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett feels Incitec Pivot has fared an excessive reaction from investors following a number of updates around the core explosives business that include uncertainty around a fertiliser demerger, leadership changes, and a reduction of gas to Phosphate Hill under a supply agreement. 

While earnings from the core explosives business have slipped since FY19, the broker expects a turnaround is imminent and considers the stock to be trading below fair value. With recontracting taking place in a tighter market, the broker anticipates improved earnings. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $3.50 are retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.48
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Lighten rating retained. Target price is $36.50.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $44.71 Difference: minus $8.21 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.82, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interestrates  remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price is $10.70

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $5.45
If KGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie lowers its FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts for Link Administration by -11.5% and -13.6%, respectively, and by -6% to -12% thereafter.

These changes primarily reflect higher interest expenses following the broker's misinterpretation of pay-down in debt post sale of offshore assets.

Macquarie is currently on research restriction for Link Administration.

Current Price is $1.32. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOV as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Hold rating retained. Target price is $22.00

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.65 Difference: $3.35
If LOV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.49, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker sees signs of easing costs in global food commodity prices and forecasts a switch to preparing meals from eating out.

All up, the broker suspects lower operating margins are on the cards and that competition between Australian grocers will rise, and consumers will veer to private label products for Woolworths or Coles, or discounter Aldi.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Hold rating retained. Target price is $4.00.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.3
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price is $75c.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.205
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett recommends Newcrest Mining shareholders approve Newmont's proposed takeover offer, believing a better offer unlikely and the price to be fair.

If approved, the broker expects Newcrest shareholders will receive 0.4 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share, plus a fully franked dividend up to US$1.10 ($1.72), taking the total offer to $24.86 based on current markets.

The broker observes Newmont shares are trading at a -31% discount to fair value, having reported weak sales in the June half and given rising interest rates, but expects a recovery in sales and margins. The broker says Newmont weakness is driving Newcrest's -26% discount to fair value.

Accumulate rating and $33 target price retained.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $23.71 Difference: $9.29
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.08, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Management at Orica recently confirmed its FY23 outlook is in line with prior guidance and the underlying business performance has remained strong in the 2H.

FY23 results are due on November 9. Morgans believes the 2H will benefit from a material fall in the ammonia price and an improvement in supply chains.

Morgans lowers its target to $16.23 from $17.15 due to the cost of a significant number of major turnarounds scheduled in the 1H of FY24, including a major turnaround at the Koorabang Island ammonia plant (which occurs every six years).

Target price is $16.23 Current Price is $15.17 Difference: $1.06
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PMV as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Lighten rating retained. Target price is $19.50.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $23.79 Difference: minus $4.29 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.27, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes a disconnect between large-cap gold miners and small caps, the latter underperforming by roughly -44% over the past year, and advises this is starting to unwound as the gold price rises.

The broker expects the discount will further unwind if the gold price remains firm, driven by cashed-up mid caps seeking to improve their portfolios.

Ord Minnett highlights Pantoro and Red 5 ((RED)) in this respect. 

Buy rating and 10c target price retained.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.064
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 178% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

After undertaking a mark-to-markets exercise, Macquarie raises its FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts by 6.7% and 6.1%, respectively, and by 1.8-5.1% thereafter.

The analyst now forecasts FY23 gross written premium (GWP) growth of 10.3% in constant currency terms compared to around 10% guidance. A -40bps point currency headwind is also noted.

However, the broker's assumed risk free rate (RFR) is raised to 3.21% from 2.77% and target price slips to $16.50 from $16.80. Outperform.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.24 Difference: $1.26
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.06, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RED as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes Silverlake Resources' ((SLR)) purchase of an 11% stake (at 26c) in Red 5  provides a floor for the latter's share price and removes its speculative qualifier for the latter's stock.

The broker adds an M&A premium to its target price to reflect the strategic importance of Leonora. Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 34c from 26c.

This story was first published on October 3.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.075
If RED meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects an impending tour of Rio Tinto's West Australian Pilbara operations to highlight turnaround in the iron ore business and to provide better visibility of the next mine replacement cycle and business future-proofing. 

The broker also anticipates some insight into how stricter environmental and social risk mitigation practices may impact on operations and mine plans. 

The Overweight rating is retained with a target price of GBP58.40.

Current Price is $112.80. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $111.80, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes a disconnect between large-cap gold miners and small caps, the latter underperforming by roughly -44% over the past year, and that this is starting to unwound as the gold price rises.

The broker says that continued strength in gold prices could trigger a shift to less expensive, more leveraged small caps and highlights Ramelius Resources.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $2.05 compared with $1.95 on September 20.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.645
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes copper equities are losing their shine and recommends investors take position in either Sandfire Resources or AIC Mines ((A1M)) given both have the balance sheet and operational flexibility to withstand price falls with strong upside leverage when sentiment turns. 

The broker holds a medium-term positive view on the metal given short supply.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $1.15
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SLR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes merger and acquisition activity in the gold sector is heating up following Silver Lake Resources' recent purchase of an 11% stake in Red 5 ((RED)).

The broker says the stake gives Silver Lake Resources a seat at the evolving Leonora table, which includes Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) and Dacian Gold ((DCN)) plus exposure to a large, long life, low cost KOTH asset, which the company lacks.

Buy rating and $2 target price retained.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $1.175
If SLR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SOL as Lighten (4) -

WH Soul Pattinson's FY23 result appears to have met Ord Minnett's forecast and the dividend rose 21% to 87c.

Weaker returns from Brickworks and Aeris Resources weighed but this was partly offset by a strong year from New Hope.

The broker expects the thermal coal price to slump to its midcycle forecast of US$100 a ton from its record US$347 a ton in FY23, resulting in a -21% fall in New Hope's compound annual growth rate over the broker's forecast period.

Lighten rating and $26.90 target price retained.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $32.60 Difference: minus $5.7 (current price is over target).
If SOL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Lighten rating retained. Target price is $10.00.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.29, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SVW as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett has cuts its rating for Seven Group to Lighten from Hold, on valuation.

Target price is steady at $27.50.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $30.04 Difference: minus $2.54 (current price is over target).
If SVW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.16, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Tabcorp Holdings has breached Ord Minnett's trigger level and the broker upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is $1.10.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.155
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker expects Bunnings will be able to manage these pressures by introducing new product lines, but retains its view that Wesfarmers is overvalued.

Lighten rating retained. Target price is $42.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $52.72 Difference: minus $10.72 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.44, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Whitehaven Coal's rating to Hold from Accumulate, after a run in the share price.

While the broker expects strong saleable production growth, it expects the coal price will fall to US$100 a ton by 2026 (in line with consensus), from the spot price of US$160/t.

Add rising costs, royalty rates and capital expenditure and the broker thinks it's time to ease off the pedal.

Target price steady at $7.20.

This report was issued on 3 October 2023.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $0.27
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOW as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett reviews the retail sector and expects only mild discretionary goods sales growth in FY24 as interest rates remain elevated and households battle inflation.

Given rising wages, softening demand and likely promotions in discretionary retail, the broker expects sector earnings to be pressured.

The broker sees signs of easing costs in global food commodity prices and forecasts a switch to preparing meals from eating out.

All up, the broker suspects lower operating margins are on the cards and that competition between Australian grocers will rise, and consumers will veer to private label products for Woolworths or Coles or discounter Aldi.

The broker also observes shoplifting is on the rise. All up, it spies a possible derating of defensive yield stocks.

Sell rating retained. Target price is $27.50.

This story was published on October 3.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $36.89 Difference: minus $9.39 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.42, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources