Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

September quarter traffic figures across APPR, the Chicago Skyway and Dulles Greenway were all in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts.

Management confirmed completion of the Chicago Skyway refinancing.

The broker retains its Equal-weight rating and $6.66 target. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $6.66 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $1.29
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy (1) -

Following the release of 1Q results for AMA Group, Bell Potter highlights the fifth consecutive quarter of earnings (EBITDA) improvement.

Management maintained FY24 guidance for normalised earnings though noted potential upside given the 1Q was ahead of expectations.

The broker's Buy rating and 15c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.099
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 194% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Stronger than expected gold production has offset weaker than expected base metals production in Aurelia Metals' first quarter, and despite the mixed bag quarter the company has maintained full year guidance for 60-65,000 ounces of gold at $1,850-$2,050 per ounce. 

Macquarie points out development of Federation also recommenced in the period, with the company indicating 405 metres of decline was achieved during August and September. Aurelia Metals suggests first stope ore is expected in the first quarter of FY25.

The Outperform rating and target price of 21 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.113
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AOF as Hold (3) -

A lower than expected first quarter distribution from Australian Unity Office Fund of 1.3 cents per share was, says Ord Minnett, the result of a more conservative payout ratio alongside net expenses. 

With no further large lease expiries through to the end of the financial year, Ord Minnett expects the company will be able to maintain its current distribution run rate. It does point out this will be dependent on the company maintaining capital expenditure at 10 Valentine Ave. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.44 from $1.48.

Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.38
If AOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

The rating for ARB Corp rises by two notches, under Citi's system, to Buy from Sell following last Thursday's AGM update. In a truncated research note, the new target price (previously $24.40) was unavailable.

The broker expects Australian Aftermarket will be more resilient than previously expected and believes a stronger balance sheet will allow issues within the US business to be addressed.

Citi's research issued last Friday on the AGM was summarised as follows:

Overall, Citi considered the trading update at ARB Corp's AGM to be positive, with Sep Q profit growth well ahead of expectations. The beat appears to be driven by margins as sales were flat, below a forecast of 4% growth.

The broker believed the market will view the 30% investment in Off Road Warehouse as positive as it suggests ARB is taking a more aggressive approach to resolve its US export issues which have largely arisen from the sale of 4 Wheel Parts last year.

Current Price is $30.26. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $31.01, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARB as Hold (3) -

As predicted by management in August, 1Q margins for ARB Corp have returned to levels attained over FY21-22 on normalising cost pressures and as price rises took effect, explains Morgans.

The strong 1Q trading update showed not only improving margins but also a return to profit growth on flat group sales, note the analysts. A resilient Aftermarket performance was noted.

The broker maintains a Hold rating given the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop and near-term risks in the Export division. The target increases to $30.15 from $30.10.

Target price is $30.15 Current Price is $30.26 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.01, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses an in-line 3Q result for Alumina Ltd (via results from Alcoa, fellow joint venturer in AWAC) and sees signs the operational performance is starting to improve, though pressure on net distributions continues.

The broker is Overweight-rated on valuation and envisages around 70% upside from the current share price to the 12-month target of $1.40. Industry View: Attractive.

The analysts feel recent share underperformance stems from concerns around the ongoing mine plan approvals process, along with cost pressures from mining lower grade bauxite. Several operations are also running below full capacity, notes the broker.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.59
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 50.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett expects Alumina Ltd's part-owned Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) will not have access to higher grade bauxite reserves reinstated until later than initially thought. 

AWAC continues to make progress with relevant government agencies, and has submitted a revised mine management plan program through to FY27. 

With Alumina Ltd's share price having halved since January, Ord Minnett expects a positive ruling allowing access to higher grade bauxite would be a likely catalyst for a re-rate. The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target price decreases to $1.18 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.37
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 50.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Morgans lowers its FY24-26 EPS forecasts by -9%, -5% and -3%, respectively, following a 1Q trading update which missed the broker's profit expectation.

Bapcor noted elevated near-term cost pressures and pointed to some additional consumer demand pressures during the quarter.

Management expects a "solid underlying performance" in FY24, depending on market conditions.

The broker keeps its Hold rating pending further evidence on execution of the cost-out program and confirmation the 1Q profit disappointment doesn't relate to loss of market share.

The target falls to $6.95 from $7.58.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $1.43
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BKT as Buy (1) -

China has announced export controls of natural and synthetic graphite from 1 December, citing national security concerns. Shaw and Partners expects this to be very positive for near-term graphite prices and reiterates Buy recommendations across the sector.

Black Rock Mining’s 84% owned Mahenge Graphite Project in Tanzania is favourably positioned, the broker notes, to provide low carbon intensity high quality premium graphite feedstock to an emerging supply chain between POSCO and the rest of the world.

Buy and 46c target retained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.364
If BKT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 379% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

As Macquarie had predicted BlueScope Steel has downgraded its first half earnings guidance, now guiding to $620-670m compared to the earlier range of $700-$770. 

The announcement comes off the back of weak North Star steel spreads. Macquarie continues to monitor an apparent base forming in US steel prices.

Australia outperformed the broker's expectations, but Macquarie remains cautious on impacts of house and building headwinds. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $18.20 from $19.00.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: $0.3
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Underweight (5) -

BlueScope Steel's 1H earnings (EBIT) guidance of between $620-670m, down from prior guidance of 700-770m, is in line with Morgan Stanley's recently downgraded forecast.

While the broker believes management's lower guidance is already incorporated into the current share price, there will likely be an downward adjustment to the 2H consensus projection.

Management noted 1H North Star earnings should be on par with the 2H of FY23, driven by softer prices and spreads.

The Underweight rating and $18 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: $0.1
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

BlueScope Steel has downgraded guidance for its first half by around -12%, with earnings from North Star, which accounted for 25% of group earnings last year, set to halve in FY24. 

With US steel spreads reaching record highs in FY23, Ord Minnett is anticipating a return toward longer-term averages, and BlueScope Steel expects spreads to decline around -US$100 per metric tonne. 

Outside of North Star, the company has retained its outlook for the remainder of its business. The rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target price of $16.50 is retained.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes US mini-mill realised spreads accounted for around -$80m of a -$90m reduction in 1H earnings (EBIT) guidance by BlueScope Steel to $620-670m. The balance related to a deferral of a sale within the  BlueScope Steel Properties Group.

Other segments were broadly in line with the broker's forecasts, with realised pricing and the raw materials mix helping offset lower Australian Steel Products' (ASP) spreads.

The analyst's FY24 EPS forecast falls by -5% primarily due to lower North Star realised spreads. It's felt the US market has likely hit its nadir for spreads.

The target falls to $19.90 from $22.00. Neutral.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: $2
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.22, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

In anticipation of CommBank's 1Q trading update on November 14, Morgan Stanley forecasts a none-too-surprising modest earnings decline.

The broker highlights the importance of the 1Q margin update and the bank's response to the recent loss of mortgage market share. A  2.01% margin is forecast, which would be a -4bps drop compared to the 2H of FY23.

Morgan Stanley's target falls to $84.50 from $85.50 on a weaker loan growth projection for the 1H. Underweight is retained on weaker mortgage growth trends, margin pressure in retail banking and higher multi-year cost growth. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $84.50 Current Price is $98.75 Difference: minus $14.25 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $90.83, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -

In anticipation of Coles Group's 1Q results on October 26, UBS forecasts total sales of $10.2bn, a rise of 6.2% on the previous corresponding period, while consensus expects $10.1bn.

Due to modest forecast revenue declines for the Supermarkets and Liquor divisions, the broker lowers its target to $16.50 from $17.25. Neutral.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.13 Difference: $1.37
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.53, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management has announced full year guidance broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations. The company reported margin improvement is being driven by operational efficiency across the business, but particularly in challenging areas in Queensland. 

With improvements in operating performance seemingly going to plan, Macquarie expects this will underpin early confidence in the company's strategy execution. 

Macquarie does continue to point out the growing discount between Cleanaway Waste Management and key US peers, now at -12%. The Outperform rating and target price of $3.00 are retained. 

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.65
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Despite Cleanaway Waste Management guiding to strong year-on-year earnings growth of 16% in FY24, equating to $350m, Ord Minnett expects the benefits of price increases and easing costs are being muted by inflationary pressures.

While the broker retains its longer-term earnings assumptions for the company, it decreases its FY24 forecast by -4% to $358m. Ord Minnett finds the shares still slightly overvalued at current prices. 

The rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target price of $2.20 is retained. 

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Neutral (3) -

While FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance of around $350m provided at Cleanaway Waste Management's AGM was in line with the consensus forecast, UBS had assumed a quicker improvement for the core business.

The broker still assumes management beats its $450m FY26 earnings target though notes this will require some improvement to labour efficiency. Increased capex also remains a risk, should the core businesses not recover as expected.

The target falls to $2.55 from $2.65. Neutral.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.2
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EV1 as Buy (1) -

China has announced export controls of natural and synthetic graphite from 1 December, citing national security concerns. Shaw and Partners expects this to be very positive for near-term graphite prices and reiterates Buy recommendations across the sector.

Evolution Energy Minerals’ 84% owned Chilalo Graphite Project in Tanzania requires low upfront capital for a favourably large flake sized product suitable for specialty end markets and optionality to move downstream in the US, the broker notes.

Buy and 72c target retained.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.58
If EV1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 414% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Neutral (3) -

Last Friday's AGM update by EVT Ltd is difficult to assess by Citi as the updated earnings disclosure was based on a different accounting treatment compared to the broker's method.

Even though earnings from Thredbo were expected to be disappointing, given adverse weather and less runs operating, the magnitude of the slowdown was greater than the analyst anticipated.

Separately, management reiterated guidance for the FY24 box office to exceed FY23, assuming release dates hold. Overall, the company is guiding to FY24 earnings growth on FY23.

No mention in abbreviated research was made of target price or rating. Previously, Citi had a $13 target and Neutral rating.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.75 Difference: $2.25
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Following Iluka Resources' 3Q results, Morgan Stanley reduces its target to $7.15 from $8.20 and retains its Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

At the end of last week, the broker provided the following summary of the result:

Morgan Stanley suspected inventory builds in the 3Q were at the heart of weaker sales across all products for Iluka Resources. While production was in line with the broker's forecast, it fell short of the consensus estimate.

Pricing across zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile was weaker due to product mix, despite management previously flagging price stability, noted the broker.

Helping to alleviate some pressure on inventories, synthetic rutile production is due for a restart in January following outages, explained the analysts.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $0.19
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

A favourable business mix shift in the 1Q is supportive of sequential margin improvement for Imdex, in Citi's opinion.

The broker was encouraged by a higher average revenue per user (ARPU) metric, which helped offset expected weakness in instrumentation volumes.

While the broker has an optimistic bias, and it's felt the market is overly bearish on the stock, a Neutral rating is retained on a dearth of upcoming share price catalysts. The $1.60 target is retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.08
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Liontown Resources has secured $760m in debt funding which will fund progression of its Kathleen Valley project along with $376m in equity, largely composed of an institutional placement. 

The news of financing comes as Albemarle has decided to withdraw its bid for the company, a decision that Macquarie expects was driven by Hancock Prospecting's increased ownership in Liontown Resources. 

The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $2.70 from $3.00 on share dilution. 

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.8
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LTR as Hold (3) -

Following the withdrawn bid by Albermarle, Morgans retains its Hold rating due to uncertainty around the intentions of 19.9% shareholder Hancock Prospecting and the remaining construction risk for the Kathleen Valley project.

After updating forecasts for new funding arrangements and increased capital expenditure estimates, the broker's target falls to $2.03 from $3.00. New equity of $387m was paced with institutions and the chairman at $1.80/share.

A further $45m is being raised at the same price via a share purchase plan, while new debt of $760m has been secured.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.13
If LTR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Buy (1) -

First quarter NdPr production for Lynas Rare Earths was a -7% miss against Bell Potter's forecast due to maintenance works at Lynas Malaysia (LAMP).

Sales of rare earth oxide (REO) were -30% lower than the prior quarter with the company stockpiling around 22% of production over the quarter, compared to the broker's assumption of 15%. An unwind of inventory is expected to soften the impact of lower volumes in H2.

Management appears confident, suggest the analysts, the current ban on Malaysian cracking and leaching is overturned in the Malaysian courts. For now, Bell Potter's forecasts assume the ban remains in effect.

The target falls to $8.20 from $8.50. Buy.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $1.91
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths' 1Q rare earth oxide (REO) sales fell by -30% quarter-on-quarter and were a -21% miss versus Citi's forecast. The target is reduced to $7.15 from $7.35.

The broker retains its Neutral rating on caution around the ramp-up at Kalgoorlie. Key cracking and leaching personnel will be sent to Kalgoorlie from the Malaysian project, which will also shutdown in the 2Q to upgrade downstream NdPr capacity.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $0.86
If LYC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie described a mixed first quarter from Lynas Rare Earths, with solid NdPr production offset by lower actual sales volumes given inventory build. 

The company also announced its intention to undergo an expansion of its downstream processing capacity, which would allow its NdPr production capacity to increase to 10,500 tonnes per annum. This would see all plants, excluding MREC processing, temporarily close. 

Macquarie estimates the planned shutdown would result in -1,500 tonne NdPr supply loss in the coming six months, driving a tighter market. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.50 from $7.70.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $1.21
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Both consensus and UBS were expecting 1Q NdPr production of 1,800t, yet Lynas Rare Earths delivered 1,526t due to maintenance at the Malaysian cracking and leaching plant.

Additionally, sales volumes fell by -30% quarter-on-quarter in preparation for managing the (delayed) transition to the Kalgoorlie rare earths processing facility, explains the analyst.

While the timing at Kalgoorlie is unpredictable, the waste gas treatment plant has now been completed. The broker suggests first production should be imminent given the kiln heating cycle is underway.

The target slips to $7.90 from $8.00. Buy.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $1.61
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.69, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

First quarter shipments of 1.3m tonnes from Mount Gibson Iron have exceeded Macquarie's expectations, up 7% quarter-on-quarter, while realised prices of $105 per tonne were in-line. 

Cash flow was another positive for the period, with cash and investments increasing 58% quarter-on-quarter to $257m, partly as a result of Mount Gibson Iron divesting its Mid-West assets for $29m. 

The Outperform rating and target price of 50 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.025
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

First-time 1H profit guidance by Nick Scali of between $40-42m results in Citi trimming its profit estimates over the period FY24-26 by between -3% and -5%. Lower forecasts reflect a slower rate of sales and a higher cost-of-doing-business (CODB).

The broker's target falls to $13.35 from $14.35 on the lower forecasts and due to lower peer multiples.

Despite the lower target, the broker sees improving momentum in written sales orders. Along with Beacon Lighting ((BLX)), Nick Scali remains Citi's top pick in small cap retail. Buy.

Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $10.80 Difference: $2.55
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

First quarter production for Northern Star Resources was a 2% beat against Morgan Stanley's forecast with outperformance by Kalgoorlie and Thunderbox offset by misses at KCGM and Jundee.

Management maintained FY24 production guidance.

The broker's Equal-weight rating is unchanged, while the target rises to $12.30 from $11.90 on the 1Q result and updated hedging assumptions.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $12.13 Difference: $0.17
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.60, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Neutral (3) -

Panoramic Resources had largely pre-reported on its first quarter, including a strong quarter-on-quarter uplift in its mined tonnes to 185,200 tonnes. 

Macquarie was pleased that unit costs reduced significantly in the quarter with C1 cash costs and all-in sustaining costs down to $10.32 and $12.79 per pound respectively. Full year production and cost guidance was maintained.

The Neutral rating and target price of 4 cents are retained. 

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.002
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

The restart of Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich remains on track and on budget, with first production expected in the first quarter of 2024. Commissioning has commenced and a mining contractor for the stockpile reclamation phase announced. 

Macquarie points out the company is also fully funded for the restart. The broker likes that Paladin Energy has secured uranium offtake agreements with leading counterparties, and points out uranium prices have traded strongly recently. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.325
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy reported in its quarterly update that Langer Heinrich is 80% complete for restart, on time and on budget, and the company is well capitalised.

In other news, Paladin has announced it has moved to 100% ownership of the Michelin Uranium Project in Labrador, Canada. This now clears the way for Paladin to advance the project and Shaw and Partners expects the company to move relatively quickly.

Paladin is the premium and most liquid name in the sector and remains the broker's preferred exposure to an improving uranium market. Buy and $1.15 target retained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.175
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QRI as Buy (1) -

The investor day hosted by Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund confirmed Citi's view the commercial real estate (CRE) private credit market is outperforming traditional investment options.

Management noted credit in Australia continues to grow faster than the overall market, which is consistent with global private credit trends, notes the analyst.

The broker points to increasing investor interest in the Qualitas fund over the last year, given higher interest rates aide interest income, as opposed to incurring higher finance costs for traditional REITs.

The $1.60 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.01
If QRI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RDG as Buy (1) -

Central Systems, the mining services business of Resource Development has won a $140m contract from a subsidiary of Mineral Resources ((MIN)). Work will cover construction of non-processing infrastructure at the company's Onslow iron ore project.

The broker highlights the material nature of the contract compared to Resource Development' annual services revenue which has ranged been $47-67m over the last three years.

The target rises to 6.8c from 6.4c. Buy.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.021
If RDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RKN as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley identifies latent value and a potential realisation catalyst around Reckon's Legal Group, which has been a low growth and cash burning division.

In March, Reckon increased its stake in nQ Zebraworks to 76% from 70% by outlaying -US$4m, which implies to the broker around US$48m for the company's stake in the business on a fully diluted basis.

This estimated value exceeds Reckon's current market capitalisation, highlight the analysts.

The target rises to 60c from 50c. and the rating is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight based on operating leverage across not only Legal Group but also the Business division. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0
If RKN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

In a first look at today's September quarter operating results for South32, "decent" production misses are evident against Citi's forecasts for metallurgical coal, zinc and nickel.

Coal production fell by -33% due to an extended planned longwall move at the underground Dendrobium mine, explains the broker.

Management retained FY24 production guidance in the expectation of making-up met coal, zinc and nickel volumes over the balance of the financial year.

In a further negative, the broker notes a rise in net debt due to a temporary US$250m inventory build.

The US$2.4bn capital management program is 95% complete.

Target $3.90. Buy.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.53
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Following Q3 production results for Syrah Resources, Morgan Stanley keeps an Equal-weight rating and 60c target despite only a single production campaign at Balama of 18kt.

The Balama C1 cost under the revised operating mode remains at -US$580-620/t, notes the broker.

Assuming improved demand is sustained, management expects to undertake one production campaign at Balama in Q4 of around 20kt.

Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.07
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.99, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Buy (1) -

China has announced export controls of natural and synthetic graphite from 1 December, citing national security concerns. Shaw and Partners expects this to be very positive for near-term graphite prices and reiterates Buy recommendations across the sector.

Syrah Resources is the only vertically integrated natural graphite active anode material producer of scale in the world outside of China, the broker notes.

Buy and $1.30 target retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.77
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 145% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.99, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

With Transurban Group's share price declining -20% over the last six months, Ord Minnett now finds the stock fairly valued. The broker finds the company to benefit from relatively defensive revenue and expected strong growth from Consumer Price Index-linked tolls.

While Transurban Group carries significant debt, and has subsequently been hurt by the rapid and ongoing increase in bond yields, Ord Minnett points out the company has long-dated debt which will slow the rise of its borrowing costs. 

The rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target price of $12.50 is retained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.97 Difference: $0.53
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.26, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Australia and China have agreed to suspend their wine dispute in the world trade organisation (WTO), pending the outcome of an expedited (around five-month) review by China of its duties on wine.

Should duties not be removed at the end of the review, Australia will resume the dispute in the WTO, explains UBS, with a resultant risk to Treasury Wine Estates' earnings.

Despite this potential outcome, the broker believes progress, as indicated by the announcement, is a positive for the company by maybe allowing access to a large luxury wine market.

The $13.75 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $11.77 Difference: $1.98
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

In the lead-up to the FY23 result, Citi suggests Westpac will likely experience a further rise in costs. The broker's estimate that costs will exceed -$11bn over the next two years is around -3-5% worse (greater) than the consensus estimate.

The broker questions whether the consensus forecast is realistic given: an increased spend; higher amortisation, persistent wage inflation; and a slowdown in productivity benefits.

Neutral. $21.80 target.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $20.86 Difference: $0.94
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.50, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

While US$4.1bn was not a bargain price, in Morgans view, Whitehaven Coal has avoided dilutive/expensive equity and reduced the risks of expensive/excessive debt. Comments related to terms reached with BHP Group ((BHP)) for the acquisition of Blackwater and Daunia.

The broker also likes the diversification into met coal and the likely resultant improvements to financing optionality and a wider investor appeal.

More negatively, the analyst has some misgivings around execution (volumes and costs), and time needed to de-gear the balance sheet and return to similar shareholders returns.

The target rises to $8.60 from $8.55. Add.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: $1.06
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Whitehaven Coal is set to acquire 100% of the Blackwater and Daunia mines owned by the BHP Group ((BHP)) and Mitsubishi joint venture, BMA, at a cost of US$3.2bn, or US$4.1bn including contingent payments. 

Ord Minnett finds the purchase strategically sensible for Whitehaven, noting it will make Whitehaven the largest met coal producer in Australia, alongside diversifying its mix and improving ESG credentials. 

Incorporating the purchase sees Ord Minnett's net asset valuation for the company increase 31%. The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target price increases to $8.20 from $7.20.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: $0.66
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Buy (1) -

Prior to the release of Woolworths Group's 1Q sales on October 25, UBS suggests the total sales number will land at $17.2bn, a rise of 4.7% on the previous corresponding period. No guidance for FY24 sales or earnings is expected.

After only minor forecast changes, the broker retains its $43 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $36.55 Difference: $6.45
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.42, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources