Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

AIC Mines delivered a strong first quarter, including record production thanks to better than expected mill throughput. Ord Minnett points out with the Elouise asset now operating more reliably, the company is able to shift focus to reducing costs. 

Elsewhere, the broker finds the company's approach to development at Jericho to be pragmatic in the current environment. AIC Mines will fully optimise the project prior to committing to development. 

While the stock price has declined -38% in the last year, Ord Minnett believes the company can offer significant leverage and upside growth in a more constructive market. The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 70 cents from 73 cents. 

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.4
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the $14.6m quarter-on-quarter jump in net mine cashflow registered by AIC Mines in the September quarter, with the Eloise project producing 3,402t of copper at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $4.94/lb.

This outcome at Eloise was the highest quarterly production achieved since AIC Mines took ownership in November 2021 and 18% higher than the June quarter.

AIC Mines provides one of few alternatives for simple leveraged exposure to the copper price on the ASX, points out  Shaw and Partners.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 80c target are retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.5
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

AGL Energy's 1Q was appreciably better than the previous corresponding period, notes Macquarie, due to a strong coal fleet performance, offset by lower income from spot sales. A solid start to FY24 was tempered by mild weather.

While still above historical levels, retail churn normalised from recent highs, observes the analyst, and average discounting was materially lower than FY21 and FY22, which should eventually be positive for retail margins.

The Outperform rating and $11.51 target are unchanged.

Target price is $11.51 Current Price is $10.77 Difference: $0.74
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.67, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lowers its revenue growth and margin forecasts for Bapcor by more than -10% across FY24-26 following an AGM trading update showing a slowdown in trading from July to September. 

Trade & Wholesale growth moderated and retail conditions worsened further, notes the analyst, as profit fell due to higher costs.

Management noted short-term margin pressures from higher payroll tax, investments in capability, D&A costs and higher interest payments. However, FY24 guidance was left unchanged with 2H benefits expected via the company's cost-out program.

The target falls to $7.58 from $8.45. Outperform.

Target price is $7.58 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $1.67
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Underweight (5) -

Bapcor's AGM trading update fell short of Morgan Stanley's forecasts and the broker now anticipates meaningful consensus downgrades to estimates along with an earnings skew to the 2H.

Management attributes cost inflation and increased payroll taxes for the underperformance though still expects a "solid underlying performance" in FY24, while also noting the cost-out program targets were on track.

Underweight. Target $6.20. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $0.29
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

A slow start to the year for Bapcor, with year-to-date revenue in the low single digits compared to the double digit headline growth of the last two years.

While a return to longer-term growth rates had been expected, 3% quarterly growth is a miss on Ord Minnett's expected 6.4% for the first half.

With the result significantly impacted by higher costs, Ord Minnett points out price increases and cost saving initiatives that could offset will take some time to implement and take effect. 

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price decreases to $6.40 from $7.50.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $0.49
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

An AGM trading update revealed moderating growth for Trade/Wholesale on macroeconomic headwinds, while Retail has deteriorated further, observes UBS.

More positively, Bapcor is still expecting a solid FY24 underlying performance and re-iterated cost-out targets from the Better Than Before program. The company is confident pricing and cost actions can improve underlying earnings from this point.

UBS leaves its -7% below consensus forecasts unchanged and retains the $7.20 target and Neutral rating.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $1.29
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.99, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group's quarterly trading update, released this morning, marked a slight "miss" on Citi's forecasts, the broker reports upon initial glance.

The culprit is met coal where longwall issues, maintenance and higher stripping costs weighed down performance for the September quarter.

No changes have been announced to cost and production guidances. Neutral. Target $45.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $45.57 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BKT as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Black Rock Mining, which has an 84% stake in the Mahenge Graphite Project in Tanzania, a world class ore body, the broker suggests.

This project is set to provide low-carbon intensity high-quality premium graphite feedstock to an emerging supply chain between POSCO and the rest of the world, explains the broker.

POSCO, the world's largest anode producer outside of China, is an 11.5% shareholder.

Around 70% of natural graphite globally is currently mined and produced in China, a situation governments in the US, Europe and Australia are looking to counter with funding, explain the analysts.

The broker begins with a Buy, High Risk rating and a 46c target is set.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.371
If BKT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 417% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Bank of Queensland hosted an information session two days after releasing FY23 results. Management expects total costs to increase in FY24 though is aiming for a lower absolute cost base as the cost-out program is executed and the digital bank platform is commissioned.

As a result of this update, Morgans raises its FY24-26 cash EPS and DPS forecasts by 3% and 4%, respectively, and the target rises to $5.45 from $5.22.

The Hold rating is unchanged as the bank's return on equity is significantly below its market-based cost of equity. The analyst also takes into account a declining earnings outlook.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Sell (5) -

While Challenger appeared surprised, says Citi, by strong shorter-duration institutional flows in the quarter underpinned by the reinvestment of a $300m mandate, the broker points out total annuity sales have declined, as compared to the same quarter last year. 

More encouragingly, much of this decline is in lower-margin, one-year fixed term sales. Combined with a decline in institutional sales, the company reported a slightly worse than anticipated net book contraction. 

The Sell rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.05 from $6.25.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

First quarter total life sales of $2.8bn, a rise of 17% on the previous corresponding period, were broadly in line with Macquarie's expectation for $3.0bn. Total annuity net flows rose by $597m while institutional outflows were down by -$636m.

Challenger's Retail annuity sales fell by -10.1% compared to the previous corresponding period and Institutional sales fell by -26%, impacted by the Aware Super sale.

FY24 normalised profit (NPBT) guidance of $555-605m was reaffirmed.

Neutral rating retained. While the broker likes the long-term (ageing population) thematic, caution is warranted over short-term investment markets. Target price rises to $6.30 from $6.20.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett finds Challenger to be effectvely executing its strategy to improve higher-margin product sales in early FY24, and expects the company will continue to improve earnings margins through to FY28.

The broker expects a favourable shift in product mix, alongside higher yields on investment assets, will spur on earnings margin expansion and support further stock re-rating. 

The Hold rating and target price of $7.30 are retained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $0.91
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

While UBS assesses solid gross inflows for Challenger in the 1Q for both the Life and Funds divisions, these were countered by large outflows, leaving book growth fairly flat.

Sales rose by 2% on the previous corresponding quarter. This outcome was a -7% miss on the broker's forecast, yet, positively, the mix improved towards longer tenors.

The main disappointment for the analyst was the continuation of negative net flows for the last five quarters in the retail channel.

Neutral rating and $6.80 target price retained.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $0.41
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Underweight (5) -

FY24 underlying net profit growth guidance of 16-23% was re-iterated at Cochlear's AGM though this projection is based upon currency rates at the time of the FY23 result, notes Morgan Stanley.

After adjusting for current spot currency rates, the broker's EPS estimates rise by around 3-4%.

Cochlear unit guidance for high-single-digit growth was also re-iterated, which compares to forecasts by the analysts and consensus of 9% and 8%, respectively.

The Underweight rating and $240 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $240.00 Current Price is $253.90 Difference: minus $13.9 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $237.40, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -

Cochlear has reiterated full year guidance at its annual general, anticipating net profit after tax of $335-375m. The guidance range, as Ord Minnett points out, suggests 16-23% growth on the previous year, and accounts for modest profit margin expansion. 

The broker does, however, note guidance remains predicated on exchange rate assumptions made in August, and that a weakening Australian dollar has seen Ord Minnett's net profit forecasts for the coming ten years increase by an average 3%. 

The Lighten rating is retained and the target price increases to $210.00 from $200.00.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $253.90 Difference: minus $43.9 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $237.40, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

CSL has reiterated full year guidance, implying 13-17% constant currency growth on the previous year. As Ord Minnett highlights, guidance does incorporate gross margin recovery in Behring. 

The broker considers CSL's shares to be undervalued, expecting Behring's gross margins can recover to prepandemic levels by 2027. Further, it expects cost per litre efficiencies to improve from the roll out of a new donation system, reducing average donation time -30%. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $330.00 are retained. 

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $236.40 Difference: $93.6
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 38.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GT1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Green Technology Metals updated its Mineral Resources Estimate for the Root Bay lithium project in Canada to 10.1Mt at 1.29% Li2O, up from 8.1MT.

This is across a 1.3km strike with 9.4MT in the indicated category allowing economic valuation, advises Bell Potter. Drilling continues.

The broker says the company plans to announce a Preliminary Economic Assessment for an integrated project by year-end.

The assessment will separately consider a mine and concentrator development at Seymour, which is expected to produce first lithium by the end of 2025 and a lithium conversion facility at Thunder Bay. The latter is expected to start in mid 2028, advises Bell Potter.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $1.15 from $1.46 to reflect "highly" conservative assumptions about capital requirements, and restricts the valuation to Seymour and Root only, over Wisa and other assets.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.685
If GT1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 147% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

Citi has considered the potential readthrough impacts on G.U.D. Holdings from a weaker than anticipated trading update from Bapcor. With the latter closer to the end consumer, Citi would expect any consumer slow down to first reach Bapcor. 

However, the broker points out being in the process of major business transformation and distribution consolidation programs, the update may simply reflect that Bapcor is underperforming. 

The Buy rating and target price of $13.78 are retained.

Target price is $13.78 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: $2.52
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.28, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

First quarter net flows of around $2.8bn for Hub24 beat Macquarie's forecast by $0.4bn, excluding Equity Trustees ((EQT)) where the transition of funds under administration (FUA) has been delayed.

Again excluding Equity Trustees, the broker still forecasts net flows of around $10.0bn per year, with any larger transitions
providing upside to these expectations.

The broker sees limited scope for a further re-rating of Hub24 and retains a Neutral rating. The target falls to $33.40 from $33.60.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.38, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24 has reported net platform flows of $2.8bn in the first quarter, in line with Ord Minnett's expectations but a strong improvement from prior quarters. Results comprised a favourable mix, with no contribution from the previously flagged lower-margin $4bn Equity Trustees ((EQT)) transaction. 

The company has announced a range of product and platform developments, including a low cost platform option (Discover), a new retirement product (AGILE), and a headline fee reduction slated for November. 

The Buy rating and target price of $37.00 are retained.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: $3.41
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.38, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Following reporting of Hub24's 1Q fund flows, UBS sees supportive factors for the flows outlook from the rebound in momentum, new product launches as well as the recruitment of additional advisers.

Platform funds under administration (FUA) climbed by 3.8% to $65.1bn with net fund flows (NFF) contributing 4.5% and market movements detracting -0.7%. The NFF figure shows a solid recovery from the soft March and June quarters, suggests the analyst.

The broker's target rises to $35 from $33. Neutral.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $33.59 Difference: $1.41
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.38, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter advises Immutep has shared more information from its Phase 2 clinical trial in non-small cell lung cancer, the highlight being a much higher median overall survival rate; 38.8 months compared with the historical average of 20.

However, outside the median were some strong variances and the company and the broker are awaiting greater conviction in the results, with more data set for publication on Saturday (October 21).

Speculative Buy and 55c target retained.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.275
If IMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees a potentially material catalyst for shares of Incitec Pivot. It's believed management may announce a decision on the sale of the company's fertiliser assets at or before the November 13 FY23 result.

A sale is the least likely (though best case) scenario, suggests the analyst, while retention of the business, with a possible reconsideration of a de-merger, the most likely.

On the broker's projections, a sale for $1.5bn and alternatively no sale would impact the share price by 5-10% and -5-10%, respectively.

The Equal-weight rating and $3.29 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.25
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates for Judo Capital by -8% and -11%, respectively, due to weaker forecast revenue growth. Hence, the broker's target falls to $1.07 from $1.20.

Since the release of FY23 results, the Judo share price has fallen by more than -30%, the result of no FY24 guidance in the analysts' view, and a significantly worse margin outlook. An increase in non-performing loans and uncertainty about FY24 loan losses also contributed.

During the 2H of FY24, Morgan Stanley forecasts a further margin decline to a nadir of 2.79%.

The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.215
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

According to Morgan Stanley's timeline, based on commentary by Lendlease Group at August results, the sale of the company's $1-1.1bn Communities business could occur just prior to year's end.

The broker runs three potential scenarios and notes the likely impact upon the Lendlease share price.

A sale of 100% at a premium to book value could result in a 5-10% share price lift, while a 50% sale in line with book value would provide a 2-5% rise, suggest the analysts. A -1-5% share price fall is expected should the Communities business be retained.

The Equal-weight rating and $7.95 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: $1.19
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.94, suggesting upside of 49.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

A fourth quarter production miss from Newcrest Mining, as compared to both Citi and consensus expectations, has been chalked up to additional unplanned maintenance downtime

The takeover of Newcrest Mining by Newmont Corp has been approved, and Newcrest Mining shares will cease to trade in late October. Citi points out quarterly variability will be able to be absorbed by the larger Newcrest Mining-Newmont portfolio moving forward. 

The Buy rating is retained. 

Current Price is $26.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $28.50, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Hold (3) -

While Newcrest Mining's 1Q operating results were a miss against forecasts by consensus and Morgans, the broker suggests more relevant news related to the proposed scheme of arrangement for the takeover by Newmont.

The Federal Court of Australia has approved the proposed scheme. It will be effective on October 18.

Newcrest shareholders will be entitled to receive the scheme consideration of 0.400 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held on October 30. Also, a US$1.10ps special fully franked dividend will be paid for shares held before the ASX closing on October 17.

Morgans target falls to $26.90 from $27.20. Hold.

The Newmont CDI ((NEM)) will be listed on the ASX with normal trading of CDIs to commence from November 7.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $26.90 Difference: $0
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.50, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Morgans slightly trims its forecasts ahead of Pilbara Minerals' 1Q  production report though retains its $5.60 target. Near-term pricing expectations are lowered in reaction to ongoing falls for spot hydroxide and carbonate.

The company is considered the best pure-play exposure under the broker's coverage and the Add rating is duly kept.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $1.53
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.00, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

An in-line 3Q result for Pilbara Iron Ore was offset by weakness at the Canadian iron ore joint venture IOC, notes Macquarie.

Management's FY23 guidance for production in the Pilbara is toward the upper half of the guidance range of 320-335mt, while unit costs guidance was unchanged.

Aluminium volumes and copper production were beats of 2% and 4% compared to the broker's forecasts.

The aluminium performance was driven by a stronger-than-expected performance at Kitimat in Canada, explains the analyst. Copper benefited from higher grades at Oyu Tolgoi and Escondida and a better-than-expected performance at Kennecott.

The target falls by -1% to $111 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $117.11 Difference: minus $6.11 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $119.75, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Third quarter production of aluminium and copper were beats of 2% and 4%, respectively, against consensus forecasts, with the copper outcome due to a faster recovery at Kennecott, explains Morgan Stanley.

FY23 guidance was left unchanged apart from a minor downgrade to production guidance at the Canadian iron ore joint venture IOC, due to extended plant downtime and conveyor belt failures, notes the broker.

The Overweight rating and $134.50 target price are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $134.50 Current Price is $117.11 Difference: $17.39
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.75, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a strong 3Q operational result from Rio Tinto with production across most assets in line or slightly above expectations held by both consensus and the broker.

Quarter-on-quarter, production increased for the iron ore, copper, and aluminium divisions.

FY23 production guidance for the Canadian iron ore joint venture IOC was lowered by around -10%, though this had limited impact on the overall picture. Management expects Pilbara iron ore shipments in the upper half of 2023 guidance.

All other FY23 production and cost guidances were maintained. Morgans rating of Add and $123 target are unchanged, after minor forecast changes.

Target price is $123.00 Current Price is $117.11 Difference: $5.89
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.75, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Rio Tinto has met Ord Minnett's expectations with its third quarter sales. The company is on track to meet the broker's Pilbara iron ore sales forecast for 2023 of around 280m metric tonnes, up 4% on the previous year, having reported shipments of 72m metric tonnes in the quarter. 

The broker expects earnings to fall by a third in 2027, largely on the impact of lower iron ore prices, but does expect Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore sales to increase to 300m metric tonnes by the same year at a compound annual growth rate of 1.9% from 2023. 

The Hold rating and target price of $111.00 are retained.

Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $117.11 Difference: minus $6.11 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $119.75, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

The Rio Tinto 3Q production results included pre-reported 3Q iron ore shipments and FY24 guidance, notes UBS, which remains Neutral-rated and forecasts iron ore prices will hold around US$100-130/t over the next six months.

The broker notes mined copper rose by 5% year-on-year as Oyu Tolgoi ramps-up with high copper grades offsetting softer production at Kennecott Utah Copper.

On the aluminium/alumina front, all smelters are performing well, notes the analyst, with Kitimat back at full capacity. The $115 target is retained.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $117.11 Difference: minus $2.11 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $119.75, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Overweight (1) -

SG Fleet's 1Q results revealed robust activity levels across fleet and novated, according to Morgan Stanley. While supply is improving, the strong demand has kept the backlog broadly unchanged.

Electric vehicles comprised around 33% of 1Q novated orders, the highest ever. Management is also seeing price stabilisation for used cars, due to growth in disposal volumes.

The Overweight rating and $3.00 target are unchanged. The analysts see potential for overall half-on-half fleet growth in the 1H, which would be a key positive catalyst. Industry View: In-line. 

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.52
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Third quarter sales and production for Stanmore Resources beat Morgans forecasts by 7% and 5%, respectively.

The broker is encouraged by an improving rate of sales and re-affirmed 2023 guidance.

The analyst attributes a recent re-rating of the share price to the company's now unlikely participation in BHP Group's ((BHP)) coal sale process.

The Hold rating is retained, while the target eases to $4.35 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.68
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Stanmore Resources has marginally outperformed Ord Minnett's expectations for production and sales in its third quarter, but the broker notes cost pressures and capital spend appeared to weigh on free cash flow, with cash in line for the quarter. 

The result is Ord Minnett lifting its cost and capital expenditure assumptions for both 2023 and 2024. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.30 from $4.50.

The broker reiterates Stanmore Resources as its preferred met coal name. 

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.63
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

Campaign mining, higher costs and the delay to the Vidalia expansion, in addition to increased dilution, decreases Macquarie's EPS forecasts by -30-50% for 2025-28, following 3Q results.

Campaign mining refers to Syrah's strategy for the Balama mine (which has not resumed full time production) of making opportunistic sales on the back of short bursts of production.

The final investment decision on the expansion at Vidalia has been delayed to the 1H of 2024 on funding hurdles, notes the broker.

The target falls by -23% to $1.00 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.525
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 122.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

While September quarter production at Balma was ahead of the prior quarter and Shaw and Partners estimate, campaign mining continues, with the production pause extended through to October.

A return to full production is dependent on increasing sales from inventory and new sales orders above operating costs, notes the broker.

Prices fell to US$528/t from US$688/t in the June quarter, due to a higher mix of fines and lower prices during China domestic
production season, explain the analysts.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $1.30 target are unchanged. The broker expects conditions will recover in FY24 and has left Balama forecasts intact.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.825
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 174% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.00, suggesting upside of 122.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Strong 2Q cash receipts, notes Morgans, resulted in the fourth consecutive quarter of positive net operating cashflow for Volpara Health Technologies.

Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA) was US$40,400 up from US$39,000 in the 1Q, and has been growing at a compounding rate of over 20% since 2022, point out the analysts.

The $1.20 target and Add rating are unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.44
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Given higher operational expenditure and increased bad and doubtful debt, Citi has reduced earnings assumptions for Westpac by -1% through to FY25.

Better lending growth partially offset the impacts, but also leaves the broker cautious of further bad and doubtful debts. Citi lifts its lending growth forecast 2-5% for the period, but lifts bad and doubtful debt estimates 5-10%. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $21.80 from $22.50.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $21.48 Difference: $0.32
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.50, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy has earlier today released its September quarter production report and Citi, upon initial glance, believes the report shows slight "misses" in production and revenues, but is labeled largely in line regardless.

Mad Dog 2 ramp-up appears slower than expected and is highlighted as one of the minor disappointments. With Scarborough awaiting environmental approvals, capex guidance has been lowered.

Citi expects a downgrade to Scarborough schedule and guidance in 2024, likely with the February result. Sell. Target $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $36.09 Difference: minus $3.09 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.15, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

At this Friday's AGM, Macquarie expects management at Worley will reiterate the positive outlook conveyed at the FY23 result.

The company is expecting  an improvement in ex-procurement earnings (EBITA) margins to 7.5-8% in FY24.

The broker eases the target to $18.85 from $19. Outperform.

Macquarie points out the Worley share price has decoupled from the oil price over the last two years, which reflects a growing sustainability contribution.

Target price is $18.85 Current Price is $17.29 Difference: $1.56
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.21, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources