Australian Broker Call
April 06, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 10:49 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| IAG - | INSURANCE AUSTRALIA | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
Deutsche Bank rates AGL as Buy (1) -
Since the closure of Hazelwood, wholesale electricity prices have continued to rise. While the broker forecasts an eventual moderation as new gas-fired and renewable sources come on line, in the meantime electricity price forecasts have been revised upward.
AGL's target rises to $27.80 from $26.00. Buy retained.
Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $26.39 Difference: $1.41
If AGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.17, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 116.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 153.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.6, implying annual growth of 24.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALU as Buy (1) -
The broker has taken on board investor belief that at 22.4x forward earnings, Altium is overvalued. Not wishing to look at PEs in isolation, the broker looked at a range of comparative metrics and has decided the company is strong relative to other ASX listings on growth, risk and quality.
Altium has underperformed since missing with its first half result but it only missed optimistic analyst forecasts, the broker notes, not guidance. The miss was related to margins but it is revenue growth that is the key driver of valuation.
Buy rating strongly reinforced. target unchanged at $8.80.
Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.55 Difference: $1.25
If ALU meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.12, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.65 cents and EPS of 30.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.98 cents and EPS of 34.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 17.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AMC as Buy (1) -
The broker has applied new currency assumptions to its paper & packaging coverage. The net result is a slight earnings forecast increase for Amcor.
Buy and $17.35 target retained.
Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $2.28
If AMC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.53, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 57.11 cents and EPS of 71.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 64.02 cents and EPS of 90.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.0, implying annual growth of 13.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ASX as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse analyses new data provided by the company which shows that within the ASX24 derivatives business ASX has been successful in expanding its offshore client base and attracting new proprietary traders.
Night trading session contract volumes have tripled since FY09 and proprietary trading volumes are up around 80% since the first half of 2013. Credit Suisse believes this strong growth justifies the investment in an offshore sales team.
Despite a slight pull-back in the share price, the broker continues to believe the stock is trading above fair value and, therefore, maintains an Underperform rating. Target is $49.
Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $50.32 Difference: minus $1.32 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $47.98, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 200.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 204.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.6, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 210.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ASX as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie believes the recommendations from regulators have the potential to negatively impact the company's revenue by around -20%.
Recent media reports suggest setl, a financial block-chain specialist, is engaging with the market to offer an alternative venue to reduce costs. Irrespective of the technology, structural barriers need to be removed before a competitor can be successful, The broker notes.
Meanwhile, Macquarie believes fair and equal access requirements pose a medium term risk to ASX. In the short term, the company is raising fees. Underperform retained. Target rises to $43.90 from $42.20.
Target price is $43.90 Current Price is $50.32 Difference: minus $6.42 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $47.98, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 205.30 cents and EPS of 228.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 209.30 cents and EPS of 232.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.6, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 210.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AWE as Hold (3) -
Compliance to OPEC production cuts has been more stringent than the broker expected but on the flipside, the rebound in US shale production, thanks to both a rising rig count and productivity gains, has been faster than expected. To that end the broker has reduced Brent forecasts across the curve.
AWE's target falls to 50c from 55c. Hold retained.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -
UBS finds data on industry pallet trends suggests the issues in the US are temporary in nature and driven by cyclical weakness and an oversupply of white wood pallets.
The balance of the company's business is performing well. The broker believes management will be in a better position to lay out an attractive strategy for the business in August, after re-basing expectations away from the prior management narrative.
Buy rating and $10.60 target retained.
Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.33 Difference: $1.27
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.27, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.19 cents and EPS of 70.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 41.30 cents and EPS of 74.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse observes demand for IG in the US, Australia and Canada remains robust. The broker estimates these three countries represent around 70% of total IG administered globally.
The broker increases IG growth assumptions in line with its analysis and this results in upgrades to earnings per share for CSL of 2..5% over the forecast period. Target rises to $134 from $125. Outperform retained.
Target price is $134.00 Current Price is $126.40 Difference: $7.6
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $129.64, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 180.64 cents and EPS of 398.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 399.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 227.12 cents and EPS of 484.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 471.2, implying annual growth of 18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 210.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates EHE as Underweight (5) -
Sentinel, which owns 4.988% of Estia Health, has presented a plan to acquire a controlling interest and create value through a sale and lease-back transaction. Morgan Stanley believes the plan is highly speculative and there is little certainty that value can be created.
The broker also envisages hurdles to the success of a sale and lease-back transaction, relating to how the refundable accommodation deposit cash and liability will be moved to the operator.
Underweight rating retained. Target is $2.30. In-Line industry view.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If EHE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 43.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.40 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -18.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley believes consensus is too optimistic regarding a bounce in FY18 in earnings.The broker notes international flight price deflation is moderating and this will ease the headwinds in FY17 and there is now little risk to current guidance
Nevertheless, recent industry discussions highlight the pressure on the company's business model and, while the company is improving its digital offer, the broker cannot envisage how it can compete with other online travel agencies. The cost of generating leads has risen considerably, which means that conversion becomes even more important.
Underweight retained. Target is $25. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $28.90 Difference: minus $3.9 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.74, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 214.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.3, implying annual growth of -12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 201.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.1, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GUD as Neutral (3) -
The company has an agreement to purchase the shares of Innovative Mechatronics, which has annual sales of $7m and EBIT of around $1m.
While the transaction is small, Macquarie notes it is consistent with the company's strategy to add bolt-on acquisitions that complement and expand its attractive automotive division.
The broker retains a Neutral rating and $10.40 target.
Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: minus $1.45 (current price is over target).
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.27, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 61.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 65.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 14.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts have reduced EPS estimate for FY17 by -10% in response to Cyclone Debbie and other natural hazard costs. Neutral rating retained, as well as the $6.05 price target.
Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.1
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 33.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates IAG as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse observes the focus from Cyclone Debbie switches to reinsurance now. The company expects FY17 natural peril claims to be around $850m, similar to the broker's estimates.
Should there be another major event the earnings risk is less than 2%. Should there be two more major events the company would be looking at almost 7% in earnings risk and would likely need to reinstate cover for the rest of the year. Neutral and $6.05 target retained.
Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.1
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 33.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates IAG as Hold (3) -
The broker has reviewed the numbers in the wake of Debbie and has lifted its FY17 claims cost forecast for IAG to $850m from an initial $802m. Pre-Debbie guidance sat at $680m. The broker expects premiums to rise as a result.
IAG still has plenty of capacity to cover any further disasters before end-June, the broker notes. With the share price currently suggesting fair value, the broker retains Hold and a $5.80 target.
Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 33.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IAG as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
The company has downgraded its FY17 reported insurance margin guidance to 10.5-12.5% from 12.5-14.5% as a result of $170m in additional natural peril claims cost assumptions.
The current reinsurance structure means the company will receive a benefit in the first half of FY18.
Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, allowing for the improved margin outlook in FY18, with a claims environment that allows the insurer to retain a larger portion of the $250m gross cost reductions over the next three years.
Target is raised to $5.95 from $5.75.
Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 33.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 38.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -
Cyclone Debbie will cost $140m, the company's maximum event exposure.The net natural perils claims cost assumption has been increased for FY17 to $850m from $680m.
Subsequently, FY17 reported insurance margin expectations are downgraded to 10.5-12.5% from 12.5-14.5%.
Morgans is encouraged by the recent cost reductions but believes, in order to be bullish, one must be a believer in the margin expansion story. The broker struggles to believe this is likely, given margins are at cyclical highs.
Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $5.56 from $5.72.
Target price is $5.56 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.60 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 33.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.70 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -
UBS notes its revision on the day after Cyclone Debbie made landfall correctly factored in the likely losses but underestimated smaller event losses that contribute to the company's natural peril costs.
The broker aligns its FY17 estimates to the company's fairly cautious view, resulting in a further -5.6% downgrade to earnings per share.
The company has now lifted its FY17 estimate for natural peril cost allowances to $850m from $680m. Neutral rating and $6.00 target retained.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $0.05
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 33.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IOF as Sell (5) -
The updated $4.85 a share proposal from Cromwell ((CMW)) reflects a 7% increase on its initial offer. Independent directors have stated they propose to engage with the company in relation to this proposal.
UBS notes, what has not changed, is that this is not a bid under the Corporations Act and independent directors will separately negotiate terms of the acquisition of a partial interest in the Investa platform. The identity of Cromwell's consortium is still unknown.
UBS retains a view that there is very limited upside compared to the downside if the deal does not complete and retains a Sell rating and $4.48 target.
Target price is $4.48 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If IOF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of -64.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.70 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -
The broker has revised its Incitec earnings forecasts to account for higher DAP prices, lower urea prices and a stronger A$. The net result is a slight downgrade. Th broker expects only a minor impact on demand due to Debbie.
Otherwise the signs are positive in Incitec's key markets, and particularly in North America, the broker suggests. Buy and $4.35 target retained.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.66
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 139.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie does not believe the impact of Cyclone Debbie will be material for Incitec Pivot. The broker notes the Moranbah ammonium nitrate plant, which is exposed to Queensland coking coal customers, has recently undertaken a four-week maintenance turnaround.
Assuming that some stockpiling is undertaken, the broker estimates around a -3% impact on FY17 earnings per share. Outperform rating and $3.95 target retained.
Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.26
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 139.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MTS as Sell (5) -
Metcash did the right thing in 2014 in investing in pricing, improving execution and extracting costs, the broker suggests. But now that Woolworths ((WOW)) has also invested heavily in price since losing market share, the benefits have faded.
Further cost reductions will thus only offset the decline rather than boost margins. Metcash will need to reinvest in pricing, the broker believes, but as to how that could be funded is unclear. Sell and $2.60 target retained.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of -16.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 10.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORA as Hold (3) -
The broker has applied new currency assumptions to its paper & packaging coverage. The net result is a slight earnings forecast decrease for Orora.
Hold retained, target falls to $2.95 from $3.00.
Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.1
If ORA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.20 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORG as Hold (3) -
Since the closure of Hazelwood, wholesale electricity prices have continued to rise. While the broker forecasts an eventual moderation as new gas-fired and renewable sources come on line, in the meantime electricity price forecasts have been revised upward.
Origin's target falls to $6.40 from $6.45. Hold retained.
Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 54.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.8, implying annual growth of 213.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORI as Buy (1) -
A revision to the broker's currency assumptions has provided a boost to Orica forecast earnings but this is more than offset by the delay in the commissioning of the Burrup AN plant. Forecasts have been trimmed.
While the outlook is improving, the broker sees FY17 as a transitional year for Orica. The stock is offering value nonetheless, hence Buy and $20 target retained.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.64 Difference: $2.36
If ORI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.45, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.6, implying annual growth of -1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie does not believe the impact of Cyclone Debbie will be material for Orica.The company has a broad Australian business mix and coking coal, which is heavily represented in Queensland, was only 4% of its FY16 revenue.
The broker estimates a -1% impact on earnings per share in FY17, assuming the impact on the Yarwun plant will be 2-3 weeks.
Target is $17.12. Neutral retained.
Target price is $17.12 Current Price is $17.64 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.45, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 49.80 cents and EPS of 99.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.6, implying annual growth of -1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.30 cents and EPS of 104.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates OSH as Buy (1) -
Compliance to OPEC production cuts has been more stringent than the broker expected but on the flipside, the rebound in US shale production, thanks to both a rising rig count and productivity gains, has been faster than expected. To that end the broker has reduced Brent forecasts across the curve.
Oil Search's target falls to $8.00 from $8.60. Buy retained.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: $0.66
If OSH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.05, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 24.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.28 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 21.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates OSH as Add (1) -
Morgans suspects the company is capable of breaking out of its trading range this yar, particularly as some Australian peers may start to struggle.
Oil Search holds more viable growth on spot oil prices than the likes of Woodside ((WPL)), Santos ((STO)) or Origin ((ORG)) combined, in the broker's view.
Consensus targets are observed to have hardly moved over the last six months, despite a series of material developments which further de-risk portions of the company's growth.
Morgans suspects the market will be forced to price in more of the company's growth as it progresses throughout 2017. Add rating retained. Target rises to $10.21 from $9.70.
Target price is $10.21 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: $2.87
If OSH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.05, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.28 cents and EPS of 31.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.61 cents and EPS of 35.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 21.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates PGH as Buy (1) -
The broker has applied new currency assumptions to its paper & packaging coverage. The net result is a slight earnings forecast decrease for Pact.
Buy and $7.20 target retained.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.3
If PGH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.70 cents and EPS of 37.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 24.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.70 cents and EPS of 44.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 16.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SBM as Outperform (1) -
Preliminary gold production data for the quarter reveals strong grades continue at Gwalia and Simberi is setting a production record of 30,430 ozs of gold, well ahead of the 23,000 ozs Macquarie was expecting.
The broker increases mining and milling assumptions for Simberi, resulting in a 13% and 9% uplift to earnings estimates in FY17 and FY18 respectively. Higher throughput results in a shorter assumed mine life, which has a negative impact on FY19.
The broker lifts the target to $3.00 from $2.90. Outperform maintained.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.38
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of -7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 9.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -
The company faces funding cuts in both the US and Germany and FY18, countries which account for over 40% of its revenue. Ord Minnett suggests this is a reminder of the well-established downward trajectory of funding across most of its major markets.
The broker reduces estimates for earnings by -3% in FY18 to allow for the reforms, reducing earnings growth to single digits despite the benefit of acquisitions. Target is reduced to $21.00 from $23.50. Hold rating retained.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $21.76 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.47, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.7, implying annual growth of -3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.0, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates STO as Buy (1) -
Compliance to OPEC production cuts has been more stringent than the broker expected but on the flipside, the rebound in US shale production, thanks to both a rising rig count and productivity gains, has been faster than expected. To that end the broker has reduced Brent forecasts across the curve.
Santos' target falls to $4.50 from $5.00. Buy retained.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.7
If STO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 22.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.28 cents and EPS of 31.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 31.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SUN as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse notes the company share prices been the hardest hit during the recent Queensland-based events such as flooding and Cyclone Debbie, despite the reduced earnings risk under its new catastrophe cover.
While the events of FY17 demonstrate the strength of the company's new reinsurance cover and adequacy of its natural hazard allowance, with the July 1 renewal fast approaching, Credit Suisse suspects questions will be raised about the ability to place this couple again in FY18.
The stock is now trading at a 13% discount to its peers and remains the broker's top pick on valuation appeal. Outperform and $14.20 target retained.
Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $12.92 Difference: $1.28
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.64, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.1, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.4, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SXY as Hold (3) -
Compliance to OPEC production cuts has been more stringent than the broker expected but on the flipside, the rebound in US shale production, thanks to both a rising rig count and productivity gains, has been faster than expected. To that end the broker has reduced Brent forecasts across the curve.
Senex' target falls to 30c from 35c. Hold retained.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SXY meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WPL as Hold (3) -
Compliance to OPEC production cuts has been more stringent than the broker expected but on the flipside, the rebound in US shale production, thanks to both a rising rig count and productivity gains, has been faster than expected. To that end the broker has reduced Brent forecasts across the curve.
Woodside's target falls to $28 from $30. Hold retained.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $32.78 Difference: minus $4.78 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.43, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 138.13 cents and EPS of 172.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 138.13 cents and EPS of 197.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.2, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $26.39 |
| ALU - | ALTIUM | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.55 |
| AMC - | AMCOR | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $15.07 |
| ASX - | ASX | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $50.32 |
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $50.32 | ||
| AWE - | AWE | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.51 |
| BXB - | BRAMBLES | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $9.33 |
| CSL - | CSL | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $126.40 |
| EHE - | ESTIA HEALTH | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.15 |
| FLT - | FLIGHT CENTRE | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $28.90 |
| GUD - | G.U.D. HOLDINGS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.85 |
| IAG - | INSURANCE AUSTRALIA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.95 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.95 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.95 | ||
| Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.95 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.95 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $5.95 | ||
| IOF - | INVESTA OFFICE | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $4.80 |
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.69 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.69 | ||
| MTS - | METCASH | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.31 |
| ORA - | ORORA | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.85 |
| ORG - | ORIGIN ENERGY | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.12 |
| ORI - | ORICA | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $17.64 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.64 | ||
| OSH - | OIL SEARCH | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.34 |
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.34 | ||
| PGH - | PACT GROUP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.90 |
| SBM - | ST BARBARA | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.62 |
| SHL - | SONIC HEALTHCARE | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $21.76 |
| STO - | SANTOS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.80 |
| SUN - | SUNCORP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.92 |
| SXY - | SENEX ENERGY | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.34 |
| WPL - | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $32.78 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 14 |
| 3. Hold | 14 |
| 5. Sell | 6 |
Thursday 06 April 2017
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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