Australian Broker Call

September 14, 2016

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 01:23 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
JBH - JB HI-FI Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
MQA - MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
PTM - PLATINUM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
BGL  BIGAIR GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication Services

Overnight Price: $0.84

Credit Suisse rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Superloop ((SLC)) has announced a bid to acquire BigAir. Superloop believes the acquisition will allow it to leverage the fibre network and broaden connectivity offerings.

The consideration involves two alternatives, with 100% scrip at 0.371 shares per BigAir share or a mixture of 70c cash and 0.118 SLC shares per BGL share.

Credit Suisse expects the deal to go ahead, subject to the usual approvals but does not foresee any issues. Outperform retained. Target rises to $1.21 from 90c.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.37
If BGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 1.10 cents and EPS of 6.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.18 cents and EPS of 7.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $20.00

UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

UBS does not expect BHP to get involved in the merger plans of Potash Corp and Agrium Inc. The company bid for Potash Corp in 2010 and this was withdrawn when the Canadian government decided the merger was not of net benefit to Canada.

BHP has remained committed to Jansen since abandoning the bid and intends to spend US$300m on the project in FY17. Buy rating and $23 target retained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.00 Difference: $3
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.25, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.75 cents and EPS of 54.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 82.10 cents and EPS of 98.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.2, implying annual growth of 40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $6.24

Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Underweight (5) -

Boral's focus was on fly ash and a brick update at its US investor briefing. Combined market share across the proposed brick joint venture would be 29-30% across North America and 27% in the US.

Competition approvals remain a hurdle, the broker observes, and given higher share in certain regions this may create problems.

Morgan Stanley remains of the view that the earnings profile of the company's US assets is somewhat over-estimated by the market, given the lower operating leverage in this business.

Underweight rating and $6.15 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.72, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.10 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.5, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Overnight Price: $99.94

ADDED

Citi rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

CSL's subcutaneous Berinert will be rapidly adopted, Citi believes. The broker expects half of FY18 profit growth will come from this high priced, high margin product.

Following the recent fall in the share price the broker is more positive on the stock but considers trading multiples are high, given increasing volatility in the composition of earnings.

Neutral rating and $110.73 target retained.

Target price is $110.73 Current Price is $99.94 Difference: $10.79
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.67, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 179.76 cents and EPS of 389.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 365.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 190.18 cents and EPS of 483.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 442.7, implying annual growth of 21.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYB  CYBG PLC

Banks

Overnight Price: $4.63

Credit Suisse rates CYB as Outperform (1) -

Following the company's briefing Credit Suisse makes only compositional changes to FY16-17 estimates but reduces FY18 earnings estimates by 8%.

The broker envisages the stock as an inexpensive self-help story.  $5.25 target and Outperform rating are retained.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.62
If CYB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 29.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates CYB as Lighten (4) -

The company has held an investor briefing and provided new targets along with a strategic plan which targets double digit returns on tangible equity by 2019.

Ord Minnett observes this will require double-digit cumulative revenue growth in addition to a lower cost base and a move to internal ratings-based accreditation risk weighting on the mortgage book.

Lighten rating and $4.00 target retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If CYB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.99 cents and EPS of 23.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.42

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

The company has updated on the addition of Ernest Henry and divestment of Pajingo and confirmed Credit Suisse's production and cost forecasts.

Upside is envisaged at Cowal in the near term from productivity gains and cost reductions. An Outperform rating and $2.45 target are retained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.03
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.26 cents and EPS of 24.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.38 cents and EPS of 23.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

The company has updated its guidance for production and costs to incorporate recent deals. FY17 guidance for the economic interest in Ernest Henry has been clarified at 55-60,000 ozs, with an all-in cash cost of $100-150/oz.

UBS is cautious about Ernest Henry and attributes no value to the upside potential. A Buy rating is retained. Target is $2.89.

Target price is $2.89 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.47
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Materials

Overnight Price: $4.74

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

The company has issued a US$700m repayment notice for the 2019 senior secured term loan. Incorporating the repayment of the debt means the broker's FY17/18 earnings estimates lift 1%. Neutral and $5.00 target retained.

UBS believes the quantum of the company's debt remains of concern to the market and early redemption and partial terming out would be a positive, given a view that iron ore prices will decline from current levels. UBS forecasts iron ore to average US$50/dmt CFR, sufficient for the company to de-gear.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.51
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.07 cents and EPS of 36.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.04 cents and EPS of 21.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -34.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Retailing

Overnight Price: $28.85

ADDED

Citi rates JBH as Sell (5) -

The company has acquired The Good Guys at an attractive price in Citi's view. The broker believes the acquisition represents a fair multiple for a rare industry consolidation opportunity.

The broker does express surprise that JB Hi-Fi intends to roll out Home stores, given the cannibalisation of The Good Guys sales and lack of profitability in Home.

The acquisition has been factored into the share price for some months, Citi observes, and while the earnings and synergy targets may be seen as conservative Citi sticks to its Sell rating. Price target moves up to $27.20 from $25.00.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $28.85 Difference: minus $1.65 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 106.00 cents and EPS of 155.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 127.00 cents and EPS of 191.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

JB Hi-Fi will acquire The Good Guys for $820m, to be funded by an accelerated rights issue and debt. Credit Suisse finds the debt metrics remain acceptable and the transaction is 11% accretive on a pro forma FY16 basis.

JB Hi-Fi expects the synergies of $15-20m after three years and year one implementation costs of $10-12m. The broker's Underperform rating and $25.21 target are retained.

Target price is $25.21 Current Price is $28.85 Difference: minus $3.64 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 185.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates JBH as Hold (3) -

JB Hi-Fi has paid less than expected for The Good Guys, $870m, which Deutsche Bank considers is a good sign that payment for growth the vendor was expecting was not made.

Still, subdued expectations for FY17 signal to the broker the departure of key people is affecting sales during a buoyant period and the housing tailwind may ebb by the time the business has been integrated.

The broker believes the benefits of the synergies have already been priced in and retains a Hold rating. Target rises to $30 from $29.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.85 Difference: $1.15
If JBH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 181.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 129.00 cents and EPS of 199.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Equal-weight (3) -

The acquisition of The Good Guys for $870m is full, given the three-year synergy target of $15-20m, in Morgan Stanley's view.

The broker considers the critical issue centres on the integration of two very different retail cultures as well as the future of JB Home and the longer term profit outlook for The Good Guys.

Morgan Stanley observes The Good Guys is a high cost, high service retailer which compares with JB Hi-Fi which operates on a low cost, low service model. Equal-weight rating and $28 target retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $28.85 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 169.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 178.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates JBH as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

JB Hi-Fi will acquire The Good Guys for $870m. Morgans likes the deal and expects the power of the combined group's increased scale will become evident in coming years.

The broker acknowledges the risks in the transaction, particularly in the case of the joint venture stores which were dissolved ahead of the merger, with 30 retiring and the remaining 25 staying on a store managers.

Morgans assumes the company's synergy target of $15-20m is achieved progressively over three years. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target increases to $32.55 from $28.70.

Target price is $32.55 Current Price is $28.85 Difference: $3.7
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 129.00 cents and EPS of 199.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

JB Hi-Fi will acquire The Good Guys for $870m. Ord Minnett believes the acquisition provides valuation support with forecast earnings growth to be strong in the medium term as synergies are realised.

The broker acknowledges execution risks, especially with the significant number of joint venture partners that are leaving. The broker, nevertheless, considers the operating performance has been strong and, given the retention of senior management from The Good Guys, suggests a return to Accumulate rating from Hold is justified.

Target price rises to $32 from $28.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.85 Difference: $3.15
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 168.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates JBH as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The company will acquire The Good Guys for $870m and expects the deal to be around 12% accretive, funded by equity and debt. UBS upgrades estimates to incorporate the acquisition and assumes a 3-year sales compound growth rate of 3%.

UBS expects the acquisition will provide upside risk to forecasts in coming years via upside to synergies and a more rational market. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $31.60 from $28.60.

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $28.85 Difference: $2.75
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.51, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 173.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 201.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQA  MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP

Transportation

Overnight Price: $5.07

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates MQA as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The Supreme Court of Virginia's positive ruling on toll increases clears the way for Macquarie Atlas'  50% partner in the Dulles Greenway asset to start a sale process.

Credit Suisse suspects MQA will probably sell its stake as well but may keep the proceeds to finance an additional 10% stake in APRR which could become available next year.

As the share have fallen 13% since late August the broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral on valuation grounds. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.90.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: $0.93
If MQA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.95, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 60.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 14.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 74.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT  NEXTDC LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $3.99

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Another strong contract win has meant the trigger for expanding to a second Sydney data centre has been hit.

With evidence that the transition to the cloud is accelerating, UBS remains comfortable around the long-term structural drivers for the company.

A Buy rating is retained. Target is raised to $4.75 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.76
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 79.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 75.0.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 79.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 79.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLG  

Overnight Price: $2.74

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates PLG as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Propertylink, an internally managed property trust and fund manager, with an Accumulate rating and 95c target.

The company owns a $685m portfolio of 33 industrial properties, predominantly in Sydney and Melbourne and is the manager of a suite of institutional funds and mandates.

In FY17 Propertylink is aiming to lift occupancy to 96% and grow external assets under management to $1.5bn.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: minus $1.79 (current price is over target).
If PLG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $4.88

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates PTM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The company has announced a buy-back of 10% of equity, funded out of existing cash flow. Following a period of underperformance Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is lowered to $5.25 from $5.65.

Credit Suisse assumes the company completes only half of the buy-back and the buy-back has a minimal impact on valuation, given excess cash was already valued. Fund performance remains weak over the medium term and the broker expects outflows to continue.

 

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $0.37
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -12.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley suspects the company is unlikely to buy back its full 10% of issued capital at the current share price. The timing of the announcement is surprising to the broker, given the company reduced its pay-out ratio in FY16 and dropped its special dividend.

The company intends to fund the buy-back from existing cash flow, although the balance sheet is ungeared. Underweight rating retained. Target is $4.50. In-Line sector view retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -12.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation

Overnight Price: $2.33

ADDED

Citi rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Citi resumes coverage of the company after its acquisition of 50% of Patrick Ports, and the respective capital raising and placement.

The broker notes the growth in rail volumes to and from Port Botany highlights the critical need for rail to increase its share of freight and avoid a significant increase in congestion costs for the NSW economy.

Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $2.98 from $2.91.

Target price is $2.98 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.65
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of 27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 10.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
BGL - BIGAIR GROUP Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.84
BHP - BHP BILLITON Buy - UBS Overnight Price $20.00
BLD - BORAL Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.24
CSL - CSL Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $99.94
CYB - CYBG Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.63
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.63
EVN - EVOLUTION MINING Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.42
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.42
FMG - FORTESCUE Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.74
JBH - JB HI-FI Sell - Citi Overnight Price $28.85
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $28.85
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $28.85
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $28.85
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $28.85
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $28.85
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $28.85
MQA - MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.07
NXT - NEXTDC Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.99
PLG - Initiation of coverage with Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.74
PTM - PLATINUM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.88
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.88
QUB - QUBE HOLDINGS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.33
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

5

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

4

Wednesday 14 September 2016

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.