Australian Broker Call

August 28, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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Last Updated: 12:31 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AWC - ALUMINA Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
CTX - CALTEX AUSTRALIA Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten Ord Minnett
HPI - HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
MND - MONADELPHOUS GROUP Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
MPL - MEDIBANK PRIVATE Upgrade to Hold from Reduce Morgans
QAN - QANTAS AIRWAYS Downgrade to Sell from Hold Ord Minnett
SHV - SELECT HARVESTS Upgrade to Hold from Reduce Morgans
SRV - SERVCORP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
AFG  AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

Banks

Overnight Price: $1.54

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

FY17 net profit beat Macquarie's estimates. The broker believes the stock continues to offer attractive value while the new platform should support growth.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $2.07 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.07 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.535
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.17.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.03.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AFG as Add (1) -

FY17 net profit was ahead of guidance. Morgans flags the commentary suggesting increased regulatory intervention has driven a more complex market and greater need for broker expertise.

The growth outlook suggests the stock offers compelling value and Morgans increases estimates for earnings per share by 3.0% and 1.3% for FY18 and FY19 respectively.

Add retained. Target rises to $1.70 from $1.65.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.165
If AFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.23.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AHG  AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

Overnight Price: $3.31

Credit Suisse rates AHG as Outperform (1) -

FY17 results and the FY18 outlook are in line with Credit Suisse. The exception is the impact from add-on insurance regulation, which is worse than the broker expected.

Favourable factors such as cost reductions and a recovery in refrigerated logistics will be needed to offset lower insurance income, at least in the near term.

Outperform rating. Target is $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.29
If AHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.97 cents and EPS of 26.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.12 cents and EPS of 29.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AHG as Buy (1) -

Earnings were weaker than Deutsche Bank expected in FY17. This reflected the soft new car market in Western Australia, regulatory pressures on the vehicle finance industry and continuing problems with refrigerated logistics.

Guidance is for modest growth in FY18 with a full year of benefits from the cost savings. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.90 from $4.30.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.59
If AHG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AHG as Underweight (5) -

The weak result from Auto Holdings' auto business was due to margin squeeze, the broker notes, combined with company restructuring and cost-out plans. Margins were hit by ASIC's crackdown on financing and by ongoing general weakness in WA.

The broker expects the pressure to continue into FY18 and while Logistics put in an improved performance in FY17, it will not be the company's saviour in FY18. The first half has already begun where FY17 left off and despite a second half skew, the broker believes guidance will be hard to achieve as it relies on both cost-outs and improvement in WA.

Underweight and $3.00 target retained. Industry View: In line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.20 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.10 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AHG as Hold (3) -

FY17 results were in line with guidance and Morgans expectations. Cost reductions are expected to soften the blow from regulatory change in a difficult Western Australia market.

Management did not provide FY18 guidance but noted a modest uplift in operating net profit was expected.

Until the broker has evidence this is happening, a Hold rating is retained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $3.79.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.29
If AHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AHG as Accumulate (2) -

FY17 results were towards the low end of guidance and just below Ord Minnett's estimate. Guidance for a modest FY18 uplift was provided.

The broker believes previously outlined savings and initiatives will be required to offset an estimated $15m reduction in FY18 insurance earnings. Ord Minnett suggests the company is nearing the trough and expects a return to robust earnings growth as these headwinds cycle through.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate recommendation and $3.50 price target.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.19
If AHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AHG as Neutral (3) -

FY17 was a tough year for the group, with earnings down -4.2% on the pcp. The outlook was for modest growth given an estimated -$15m hit to insurance income following an ASIC revue of add-on insurance.

UBS has cut FY18 earnings forecast by -9% but leaves longer term untouched as the logistic division showed strong growth.

Neutral retained and target raised to $3.30 from $3.05.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC  ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

Overnight Price: $2.15

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

First half numbers were solid and ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The broker updates for commodity price forecasts and 2017 guidance, which is largely unchanged.

Marginally higher cash costs are assumed. The dividend yield is attractive and there are reasonably undemanding valuation multiples. Hence, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $2.30 from $1.70.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.15
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.57 cents and EPS of 12.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.98 cents and EPS of 11.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWE  AWE LIMITED

NatGas

Overnight Price: $0.47

Citi rates AWE as Buy (1) -

The FY17 performance turned out weaker-than-expected (bigger loss) with Citi analysts blaming higher costs and a higher tax rate, with the latter notoriously difficult to predict for a company such as is AWE, explain the analysts.

Citi reduced the value of Ande Ande Lumut now that management has communicated the project needs an oil price of US$50-55/bbl to justify the economics of bringing in a partner-operator.

For upside potential, Citi analysts are looking towards Waitsia and maybe AAL too. The stockbroker's risked DCF valuation falls to $0.55/shr at present forward oil price, but it increases to $0.65/shr at US$65/bbl oil price, with very low oil sensitivity given AWE is a gas business, explain the analysts. Target $60 (was $66). Buy.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.135
If AWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 77.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 462.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AWE as Neutral (3) -

FY17 earnings missed Credit Suisse estimates. Despite lower production, the broker hopes more profitable operations will be delivered as gas contract revenue increases from March via re-contracting of volumes at Casino.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $0.50 target.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.035
If AWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 462.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AWE as Hold (3) -

The FY17 underlying loss of -$30m was larger than Deutsche Bank estimated. The broker observes, with a declining production base, the company is increasingly reliant on progressing Waitsia to a larger scale development.

FY18 production guidance of 2.5-2.7mmboe is slightly lower than FY17. Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.45 from $0.50.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If AWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 462.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AWE as Neutral (3) -

FY17 results missed Macquarie's expectations. The broker observes asset divestments have reduced field operating costs by -9%. Unit operating expenditure across the Western Australian business has reduced significantly.

The stock continues to trade around the broker's target and there is little upside envisaged in the near-term to impact valuation.

Neutral and 50c target retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.035
If AWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 155.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 462.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AWE as Neutral (3) -

AWE Ltd's FY17 results were below UBS expectations, mainly due to a larger than forecast tax expense.

Production guidance for 2.5mmboe to 2.7mmboe was below UBS forecast, as were revenue and capex forecasts. With Waitsia representing 65% of the company's net value, share price will increasingly be tied to progress on stage 2 of the project in the broker's opinion.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to 46c from 55c.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If AWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2906.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46500.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 462.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAL  BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dairy

Overnight Price: $7.73

Citi rates BAL as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts suggest Bellamy's sales improvement is due to competitors experiencing supply shortages. Hence they believe the real test for the company lays ahead as those competitors are improving their stock availability.

Also, the analysts note competitors, as well as Bellamy's, are selling substantial amounts into China ahead of the new registration regime starting on January 1st. This poses risk of excess inventory and discounting next year.

While commending new management for its early successes, Citi analysts believe a successful turnaround has already been priced in. a2 Milk ((A2M)) is very much preferred in the sector. Sell/High Risk. Target lifts to $6.40 from $5.80.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: minus $1.33 (current price is over target).
If BAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 48.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates BAL as Hold (3) -

FY17 results exceeded recent guidance and Morgans' expectations. The company has made a strong start to its 18-month turnaround, in the broker's opinion.

However, the share price is considered to have run ahead of short-term fundamentals. Hold rating retained. Target rises to $7.30 from $6.40.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If BAL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 48.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLH  COLLECTION HOUSE LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

Overnight Price: $1.33

Morgans rates CLH as Hold (3) -

FY17 results were in line with the broker's forecasts. Efficiency improvements look positive, but the broker requires more evidence that the company is able to improve cash generation.

Cash collections were relatively flat and the broker believes growing these will be key to allowing the business to de-gear and/or invest in growth. FY18 guidance was for $19m to $19.7m NPAT, similar to FY17.

Target price raised to $1.37 from $1.35 and Hold rating retained.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.04
If CLH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.87.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMW  CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

Overnight Price: $0.94

Macquarie rates CMW as Re-instate Coverage with Underperform (5) -

FY17 results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. FY18 free funds from operation guidance is 8.25c per share, representing a -4.6% decline against FY17.

Guidance for FY18 is more prudent, in Macquarie's opinion and indicative of the company addressing concerns regarding the sustainability of distribution policy.

Macquarie resumes coverage with an Underperform rating and $0.90 target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CMW as Underweight (5) -

Lower debt costs led Cromwell to a beat of consensus. The dividend implied a payout ratio of 99% but that climbs to 110% after accounting for maintenance and leasing capex. An increase in asset values was offset by an increase in gearing, to the highest level of all REITs covered by the broker.

An inflated dividend, elevated gearing and falling funds from operations keep the broker on Underweight with a 90c target. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CMW as Sell (5) -

FY17 results were below the broker's forecast. Management has guided to FY18 EPS of 8.5c, down -4.5%, but maintained the current distribution of 8.34c, suggesting asset sale profits will fund the shortfall.

The guidance is above Ord Minnett's forecast of 7.8c and the broker sees the additional earnings as possibly being derived from either higher property income, IPO fees, lower debt costs or income from warehoused assets.

Sell rating and 87c target price maintained.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTX  CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Crude Oil

Overnight Price: $32.89

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Lighten and raises the target to $35 from $28. The main reason for the changes includes a belief that refiner margins and transport fuel margins are likely to remain elevated.

Moreover, the broker has increased confidence in the opportunities in the convenience store business.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.89 Difference: $2.11
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.13, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.7, implying annual growth of -0.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 259.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.9, implying annual growth of -2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HPI  HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS

Infra & Property Developers

Overnight Price: $3.03

Morgans rates HPI as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

FY17 results were in line with guidance, with no revaluations announced. FY18 distribution guidance of 19.6c was provided, below the broker's forecast and implying flat growth on the previous corresponding period.

Incorporating FY18 guidance into its forecasts, Morgans cuts FY18 DPS forecast by -1.8% and FY19 DPS forecast by -1%.

The broker has downgraded the stock to Hold from Add and cut price target to $3.02 from $3.06.

Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If HPI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.46.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.78.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HT1  HT&E LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

Overnight Price: $2.32

UBS rates HT1 as Buy (1) -

HT&E's first half results were disappointing to the broker. Licence fees of $2m for the half were booked, but with the possibility fees will be scrapped going forward, UBS sees a $4m tailwind in the second half for the radio operations.

However, UBS believes earnings will be flat, with a delay in digital roll-out possibly impacting second half revenue growth at Adshel.

UBS views the stock as inexpensive compared to market peers and retains a Buy rating. Target drops to $2.75 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.43
If HT1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of -3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IOF  INVESTA OFFICE FUND

REITs

Overnight Price: $4.58

Credit Suisse rates IOF as Neutral (3) -

FY17 results underwhelmed Credit Suisse. While management has announced a potential 5% buy-back, the broker notes this will only be initiated at levels that are significantly accretive to earnings and net tangible assets.

The broker is also less impressed with FY18 guidance for like-for-like growth of just 2%. Neutral retained. Target is $4.53.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If IOF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of -62.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of -3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LGD  LEGEND CORPORATION LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

Overnight Price: $0.19

Morgans rates LGD as Hold (3) -

Legend's FY17 results were below the broker's expectations. Morgans is encouraged to see the company focus on reducing overheads and clearance of slow moving inventory in the competitive environment.

Earning margins within gas and plumbing have been lowered to 18% from 24% until evidence is seen of sustained cost controls. Due to these changes Morgans has cut FY 18 earnings forecast by -16.3% and FY19 forecast by -18%.

Hold rating retained and target reduced to 20c from 22c.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.01
If LGD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.13.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGC  MG UNIT TRUST

Dairy

Overnight Price: $0.65

Morgans rates MGC as Hold (3) -

FY17 results were weak in the broker's opinion, although strong operating cashflow and reduction in net debt were stand-outs.

No formal FY18 guidance was forthcoming, but the company did advise that expected milk intake would be in the region of 2bn litres, a -13% reduction on previous July forecast.

Morgans has lowered FY18 earnings forecast by -25.2%, FY19 forecast by -14.7% and FY20 forecast by -12.7%. A lot more needs to be done to make MG more competitive and generate acceptable returns, the broker notes.

Hold rating retained and target is reduced to 70c from 75c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.05
If MGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.56.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

Overnight Price: $15.27

Morgans rates MND as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

FY17 results were broadly in line with estimates and Morgans notes no formal guidance was provided for FY18. The outlook suggests some revenue growth is possible. EBITDA margins are expected to remain under pressure.

Morgans appreciates the resource sector has stabilised, and remains bullish on the sector, but cannot justify the current valuation and downgrades to Reduce from Hold. Target is raised to $11.32 from $10.95.

Target price is $11.32 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: minus $3.95 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.48, suggesting downside of -30.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of 0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.3, implying annual growth of 7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL  MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance

Overnight Price: $2.87

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

The insurer is delivering upon expectations, report Citi analysts, explicitly pointing out this is occurring against a background of bearish views elsewhere. Having said all this, the analysts remain convinced investment earnings will no longer provide a boost in FY18, with declining EPS the result.

Gross margins are expected to fall this year. Smaller acquisitions to further strengthen Medibank Health should be expected. Neutral rating retained as the price target climbs to $2.95 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.08
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates MPL as Underperform (5) -

FY17 results were largely in line with Credit Suisse estimates. The broker increases FY18 underlying net profit estimates by 1.8% and FY19 by 1.5%.

The broker assumes the positive reaction in the stock was driven by the CEO commenting that the government should announce industry-supportive reforms before the end of the year. However, the broker believes regulation potential to be a downside risk.

Underperform maintained. Target is $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates MPL as Outperform (1) -

FY17 results beat estimates. Management has improved key aspects of the business, Macquarie observes, as well as invested in initiatives that should increase value for policy-holders.

The broker believes the stock is well-positioned for supportive regulatory change. FY18 estimates are raised by 3.7%. Target is raised to $3.24 from $3.08. Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.37
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.10 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Underweight (5) -

While Medibank's result reflected weak revenues and deterioration of the company brand, subdued claims were again the surprise. Issues with the new DelPHI platform and customer servicing look to have been resolved, the broker notes.

The broker continues to see a tough market ahead and believes management's guidance to flat FY18 growth may prove bullish. Structural challenges overhang and valuation is full on weak earnings growth. Underweight retained. Target rises to $2.50 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates MPL as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

FY17  net profit was ahead of Morgans, largely on higher investment income. FY18 outlook is more positive than the broker expected regarding health insurance gross profit margins and management expenses.

Morgans upgrades FY18 and FY19 estimates by 6-7%. Target is raised to $2.68 from $2.40. The broker is now more comfortable with the outlook and a narrower gap to valuation, thus upgrades to Hold from Reduce.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MPL as Hold (3) -

FY17 results beat Ord Minnett forecasts. The broker believes the valuation is undemanding, as long as growth eventually returns to policy numbers. However, the prospect appears to be some distance away.

The broker believes an emerging risk is the outside chance of an early election and a change of government may be seen as potentially harmful to private health insurers. Hold retained. Target is raised to $3.05 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.18
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MPL as Sell (5) -

Medibank Private's FY17 results were mainly in line with the broker's forecasts. Outlook commentary was relatively vague and mixed, with expectation FY17's 3.6% utilisation growth would continue.

However, UBS notes some contraction is likely. Outlook for management expenses is better than the broker's estimates, but not enough to offset gross margin drivers. FY18 forecast raised by 1.2% and FY19 by 1.1%.

Sell rating and $2.50 target retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYO  MYOB LIMITED

Accountancy

Overnight Price: $3.61

Credit Suisse rates MYO as Neutral (3) -

The company has provided 2017 guidance for 13-15% growth in revenue. In addition to cloud migration and recent acquisitions, incremental growth is being provided by payments which the company continues to believe is a $1bn addressable market opportunity.

Credit Suisse slightly raises revenue forecasts on the back of the outlook. The broker notes the on-market buy-back has cheered the market. Neutral retained. Target  is raised to $3.60 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MYO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.25 cents and EPS of 17.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 18.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates MYO as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings were below Macquarie's estimates. The company announced a non-market share buy-back which was not expected as the broker had expected the balance sheet capacity would be used for other purposes.

The broker considers the stock a quality, well-managed business that deserves to trade at a premium to the market, but the current valuation largely reflects this. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $3.91 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.3
If MYO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.77 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 20.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX  MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

Overnight Price: $0.68

Credit Suisse rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse observes FY17 EBITDA was below guidance provided at the trading update. This was attributed to a -US$6.6m adjustment for an unrecorded liability associated with the Teva portfolio.

The broker considers the outlook challenging, as one key US generics purchasing group is still to contract with manufacturers. Neutral maintained. Target is lowered to $0.77 from $0.92, which includes a 10% risk weighting because of potential US litigation.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.095
If MYX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.27.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MYX as Buy (1) -

Mayne Pharma's FY17 results were broadly in line with UBS forecasts.

No formal guidance was forthcoming, but the broker expects additional weakness in FY18 on ongoing US price declines. FY18 earnings forecasts cut by -10% and FY19 by -7%.

Buy retained and target reduced to $1.55 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.875
If MYX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE  OROCOBRE LIMITED

Rare Earth & Minerals

Overnight Price: $3.29

Morgans rates ORE as Add (1) -

Morgans observes operating cash flow is comfortably servicing debt at 70% of design capacity. FY17 production was 11,862t, 68% of nameplate.

The broker believes investors should focus on FY18, projecting another weak quarter of production, with a lift in the December quarter and cash costs declining towards US$3000/t for lithium carbonate equivalent in 2018.

A slower ramp-up reduces valuation and the target is lowered to $5.21 from $5.36. Add retained.

Target price is $5.21 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: $1.92
If ORE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of 83.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEP  PEPPER GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

Overnight Price: $3.61

Macquarie rates PEP as Outperform (1) -

First half income was ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker likes the exposure to domestic and international earnings growth and the prudent risk management and diversified funding.

Outperform retained. Target slips to $4.54 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.54 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.93
If PEP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.53.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 45.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.99.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $5.98

Credit Suisse rates PTM as Underperform (5) -

FY17 management fees and net outflows were in line with expectations. Overall, the FY17 financials did little to shift the focus from flows, which Credit Suisse believes are the key driver. CS increases flow forecasts to over $500m in FY18.

On upgraded forecasts, the broker still struggles to find valuation support. Underperform retained. Target rises to $5.10 from $4.40.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting downside of -26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of -12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of -2.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

Following up on its first-glance assessment of Platinum's result, the broker notes a sharp turnaround was achieved through investing in distribution and staff, launching new funds and increasing marketing spend. But the broker does not see any re-rating in the near term until the fund manager starts to see material inflows.

Given the share price implies new funds flow in excess of 10% in FY18, the broker believes the stock remains overvalued. Underweight retained. Target rises to $4.40 from $3.90. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting downside of -26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of -12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of -2.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWH  PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

Overnight Price: $2.21

Morgans rates PWH as Add (1) -

FY17 results were well ahead of expectations. Morgans liked the solid, constant-currency revenue growth of 11%. Motorsports remains the key driver.

FY18  underlying EBITDA estimates are raised by 7%.  Add rating retained. Target rises to $3.10 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.89
If PWH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.09.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

Overnight Price: $6.02

UPDATED

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Citi saw a quality result, ahead of the top end of guidance, with an in-line dividend of 7c. Strength of the domestic RASK performance was the stand-out feature on the stockbroker's assessment.

Backed by a rational duopoly in Australia, Citi sees more return of surplus capital to shareholders on the horizon. The analysts continue to be of the view the shares look underappreciated.

Target price lifts to $7.19 from $7.09. Buy rating retained. Estimates have been lowered.

Target price is $7.19 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: $1.17
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 62.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 68.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

FY17 results were in line with Credit Suisse. So long as fuel prices remain low and the domestic duopoly is stable, the broker expects the business to generate high levels of cash.

Outperform retained. Target is $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: $0.73
If QAN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 54.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 58.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

FY17 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. While no specific guidance was provided the broker is confident about growth in FY18.

Macquarie considers the stock cheap relative to historical levels and global peers and retains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $7.30 from $6.90.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: $1.28
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 67.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 67.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates QAN as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

FY17 results were in line with guidance. Ord Minnett downgrades to Sell from Hold, noting the strong gains in 2017. The broker cannot justify any other recommendation at the current share price.

To support current valuations, the broker estimates further domestic airfare increases in the order of 10% are required and such a view appears optimistic. Target is raised to $4.55 from $4.15.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

UBS upgrades revenue assumptions given the stabilising of international and a benign market capacity outlook. Despite sluggish domestic demand and industry-wide pressure on yields the broker observes underlying pre-tax profit was only slightly lower than the record FY16 performance.

The broker expects the company to distribute $1bn in FY18 and FY19 through distributions and buy-backs while still remaining in its target gearing range. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $6.60 from $5.90.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: $0.58
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RBL  REDBUBBLE LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $0.80

Morgans rates RBL as Add (1) -

Redbubble's FY17 results were in line with expectations. Guidance was for 30% constant currency revenue growth, steady gross margin and restrained cost growth.

Morgans has revised its forecasts to reflect the company's outlook. In the broker's view, the global market potential for Redbubble's merchandise is highly attractive, but the company has yet to reach cash flow break even and is thus high risk. 

Add rating retained and target is raised to $1.27 from $1.21.

Target price is $1.27 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.47
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG  REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

Overnight Price: $3.69

UPDATED

Macquarie rates REG as Neutral (3) -

FY17 results were in line with Macquarie's estimates. FY18 guidance for EBITDA is flat on FY17, below expectations.

The company has acquired a 287-bed, three-site portfolio from Presbyterian Care. The acquisition price of $115,000 is attractive in Macquarie's opinion, given the low refundable accommodation deposit balance. The acquisition is not expected to make a meaningful contribution in FY18.

The broker has elected to retain a Neutral rating as a result of near-term regulatory uncertainty. Target is reduced to $4.25 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.56
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgans rates REG as Hold (3) -

FY17 results were in line with guidance but slightly below Morgans' estimates. Management has guided to a similar level of earnings in FY18.

The broker has revised forward earnings estimates in line with management guidance, lowering NPAT by -13.1% for FY18 and -9.6% in FY19.

The stock is offering a yield of approx 5% which may be attractive to investors while waiting for the potential profit growth to come through, suggests Morgans. Hold retained and target reduced to $4.13 from $4.54.

Target price is $4.13 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.44
If REG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates REG as Buy (1) -

FY17 results were in line with the broker's forecasts. FY18 guidance is broadly in line with FY17, falling short of UBS's targets.

The broker expects strong cash flows and increased debt headroom will aid the company's growth strategy. The acquisition of Presbyterian Care Tasmania is set to be accretive from FY19.

Target reduced to $4.60 from $4.80 and Buy rating retained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.91
If REG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

Overnight Price: $2.85

Morgans rates S32 as Hold (3) -

FY17 earnings were modestly ahead of Morgans estimates. The year disappointed in terms of operations but the company still enjoyed powerful support from rising metal prices and cost reductions.

Morgans is now more interested in what could become a future of conservative industry investment and robust cash flow, with sentiment increasingly being driven by the upgrade cycle unfolding as earnings lift off a low forward base.

Hold rating retained. Target rises to $3.08 from $2.96.

Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.23
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.10 cents and EPS of 18.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.93 cents and EPS of 26.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

Overnight Price: $14.75

Citi rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts remain of the view the company's operating leverage will allow it to comfortably achieve management's 10% ROIC target, but also this already seems reflected in market expectations, including at Citi.

While new management appears to be making positive moves, the analysts highlight the reasons for the sudden departure of the previous CEO and CFO remain unanswered.

Citi's view is that the global trading environment for scrap remains positive as Chinese steel exports diminish and demand remains in an uptrend. Neutral rating retained. Target price has gained 40c to $14.40. Estimates have been reduced.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.75 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 80.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

FY17 results were weaker than Credit Suisse estimated. The broker observes a lack of guidance other than the FY18 return target of 10%, which is struck off a reduced capital base.

Neutral retained. Target rises to $14.00 from $13.50.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 41.06 cents and EPS of 82.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.48 cents and EPS of 88.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates SGM as Hold (3) -

FY17 earnings were in line with prior guidance. The main positive for Deutsche Bank was the refined strategy from the new CEO and CFO. The primary focus is on organic growth in the US and Australasia, the two best businesses.

The 10% return target is expected to be achieved in FY18 and exceeded in FY19. Deutsche Bank considers the stock fully valued and retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $13.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.75 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

FY17 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. Cash stood out, with net cash of $373m meaningfully beating estimates.

While new management has made a good start, the broker believes visibility on intent needs to improve further to support the investment case. Neutral retained. Target rises to $15.40 from $14.80.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $14.75 Difference: $0.65
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 77.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 82.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SGM as Hold (3) -

Underlying net profit in FY17 was below Ord Minnett forecasts. The broker observes no volume benefits arising from a strong macro tailwind.

BlueScope ((BSL)) is prefered in the Australian steel sector. The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $14.00 from $13.60.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates SGM as Buy (1) -

FY17 earnings were in line with recent guidance. The company has reiterated its FY18 10% return target which implies FY18 EBIT of $230m. UBS considers this conservative, given the fourth quarter volume and run rate that has continued into the first quarter.

The fact the company has not walked away from prior targets provides some confidence in the orderly transition to new management, in the broker's view. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $18.00 from $14.10.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.75 Difference: $3.25
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV  SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $4.22

Morgans rates SHV as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

The company's weak FY17 results were in line with recently downgraded guidance. Cash flows were materially lower and gearing is too high in Morgans' opinion.

Further almond orchard sale and leaseback opportunities or capital raising to restore the balance sheet cannot be ruled out by the broker. FY18 production guidance was lower than expected prompting Morgans to lower FY18 forecasts by -31% and FY19 forecasts by -24.1%.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Reduce and target reduced to $4.00 from $4.05.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SHV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.21.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.63.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

Overnight Price: $8.92

UPDATED

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

First half underlying earnings beat Macquarie's estimates. The broker observes the company is developing a strong track record of under-promising and over-delivering.

As such, the stock deserves to trade at a premium to peers, opines the broker. Target is raised to $8.82 from $7.72. Outperform retained.

Target price is $8.82 Current Price is $8.92 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.41, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.70 cents and EPS of 49.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.7, implying annual growth of 53.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.60 cents and EPS of 53.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.1, implying annual growth of 14.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SRV  SERVCORP LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

Overnight Price: $5.97

UBS rates SRV as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Despite a beat on FY17 earnings, UBS has downgraded Servcorp to Neutral from Buy and lowered the target price to $6.15 from $6.75.

The broker believes the company is well placed to increase occupancy, however a ramp up in competition leaves the broker cautious in the short to medium term.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.97 Difference: $0.18
If SRV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.21.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

Overnight Price: $3.66

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with Macquarie's forecasts. The broker was impressed with the reduction in upstream costs.

Sales guidance for 2017 has risen to 77-82mmboe and, as production guidance is unchanged, the broker anticipates volumes to come through the gas portfolio via swaps and trading. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $4.40 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.74
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 53.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL  SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

Overnight Price: $8.40

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts saw a high quality result coming in near the top end of management's guidance for FY17. It appears FY18 has seen a promising start to top it all off.

Citi analysts made small changes to forecasts only. Target price remains unchanged at $10. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: $1.6
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.50 cents and EPS of 74.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 81.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Underperform (5) -

FY17 results were mixed. At a divisional level, sports and automotive were in line with the broker's forecasts while leisure was weaker than expected.

Credit Suisse pushes out assumptions for gross margin declines for another year, given no apparent desire to take pre-emptive action to correct higher costs and prices.

The above results in a modest upgrade to forecasts. Underperform retained. Target rises to $7.58 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.58 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.68 cents and EPS of 69.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.19 cents and EPS of 70.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates SUL as Buy (1) -

FY17 underlying net profit was ahead of Deutsche Bank estimates. The broker found the result hard to fault and the margin momentum bodes well for FY18, considering the further $10m in cost benefits to come.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $11.00 from $11.50.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: $2.6
If SUL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SUL as Outperform (1) -

FY17 EBIT was in line with Macquarie's estimates. The broker believes the company continues to execute well and remains positive regarding the market-leading brands.

The broker continues to envisage value in the current price and trading momentum provides greater confidence in the near-term earnings profile. Outperform maintained. Target rises to $9.70 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: $1.3
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 77.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 84.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Overweight (1) -

Super Retail posted another resilient result featuring strong trading in the face of a weaker consumer environment, the broker notes. FY18 will cycle the Masters' tool clearance of last year, implying a jump in comparables, and the upcoming soccer World Cup should boost Sports sales.

The Leisure turnaround remains a work in progress but the broker believes valuation implies the market is overestimating the impact of Amazon. Overweight retained. Target falls to $10.00 from $11.00. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: $1.6
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

FY17 results were slightly ahead of Morgans. Strength was broad, although Rays disappointed the broker, with higher losses because of increased marketing costs.

Morgans expects more of the same in FY18 and, while acknowledging the headwinds, notes management is responding to potential disruption via restructuring. Add rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.17 from $10.11.

Target price is $9.17 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: $0.77
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Lighten (4) -

FY17 results were in line with Ord Minnett forecasts but the outlook is considered subdued.

The broker believes the Australian consumer environment will become more challenging and the entry of Amazon and other international retailers disrupt industries in which the company operates.

Given this backdrop, the broker envisages limited valuation support. Lighten rating and $8 target retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Underlying FY17 EBIT was in line with UBS. The Leisure segment was the main disappointment for the broker, missing estimates by around -12%.

The broker downgrades Leisure estimates by -5-12% with some offset from lower interest costs. Buy rating retained. Target is $9.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: $1.1
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 72.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 78.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TGR  TASSAL GROUP LIMITED

Aquaculture

Overnight Price: $3.97

Morgans rates TGR as Hold (3) -

FY17 results were broadly in line with expectations. Morgans believes FY18 could be a pivotal year.

The share price has been weak following a dilutive equity raising, environmental concerns and conflict with a major competitor. If volume targets materialise, and international salmon pricing remains high, the stock appears reasonable value to the broker.

Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $4.35 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.38
If TGR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -15.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPP  WPP AUNZ LTD

Media

Overnight Price: $1.12

Credit Suisse rates WPP as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. The broker considers the stock cheap, with the merged entity's size and breadth providing significant advantage in a market that is looking for more consolidated solutions for its advertising needs.

Outperform and target of $1.25 maintained.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.13
If WPP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.01 cents and EPS of 10.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 35.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.94 cents and EPS of 11.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates WPP as Outperform (1) -

First half net profit was ahead of Macquarie's estimates.  The broker observes revenue grew modestly in a tough advertising market.

Synergies are commencing and the broker suspects the company could realise more than its $15m target but has not factored this in.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $1.43 from $1.60 because of earnings changes in the outer years and working capital.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.31
If WPP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 35.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AFG - AUSTRALIAN FINANCE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.54
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.54
AHG - AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.31
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.31
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.31
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.31
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.31
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.31
AWC - ALUMINA Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.15
AWE - AWE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.47
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.47
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $0.47
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.47
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.47
BAL - BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA Sell - Citi Overnight Price $7.73
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.73
CLH - COLLECTION HOUSE Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.33
CMW - CROMWELL PROPERTY Re-instate Coverage with Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.94
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.94
Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.94
CTX - CALTEX AUSTRALIA Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $32.89
HPI - HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.03
HT1 - HT&E LTD Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.32
IOF - INVESTA OFFICE Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.58
LGD - LEGEND CORP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.19
MGC - MURRAY GOULBURN Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.65
MND - MONADELPHOUS GROUP Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $15.27
MPL - MEDIBANK PRIVATE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.87
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.87
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.87
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.87
Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $2.87
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.87
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $2.87
MYO - MYOB Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.61
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.61
MYX - MAYNE PHARMA GROUP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.68
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $0.68
ORE - OROCOBRE Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.29
PEP - PEPPER GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.61
PTM - PLATINUM Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.98
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.98
PWH - PWR HOLDINGS Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.21
QAN - QANTAS AIRWAYS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $6.02
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.02
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.02
Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.02
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.02
RBL - REDBUBBLE Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.80
REG - REGIS HEALTHCARE Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.69
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.69
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.69
S32 - SOUTH32 Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.85
SGM - SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.75
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $14.75
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $14.75
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.75
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $14.75
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $14.75
SHV - SELECT HARVESTS Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $4.22
SIQ - SMARTGROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.92
SRV - SERVCORP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.97
STO - SANTOS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.66
SUL - SUPER RETAIL Buy - Citi Overnight Price $8.40
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.40
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $8.40
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.40
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $8.40
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $8.40
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.40
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $8.40
TGR - TASSAL GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.97
WPP - WPP AUNZ Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.12
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.12
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

28

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

30

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

13

Monday 28 August 2017

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.