Australian Broker Call

February 10, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 01:03 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AMP - AMP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
SGM - SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Utilities

Overnight Price: $24.00

Citi rates AGL as Buy (1) -

Following the "beat" in the interim report, Citi now thinks AGL can potentially beat the top end of management's $760-800m guidance range. Target lifts to $25.64 from $23.80. Buy.

Target price is $25.64 Current Price is $24.00 Difference: $1.64
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 93.50 cents and EPS of 122.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 141.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.2, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

The first half underlying net profit was in line with Credit Suisse forecasts. FY17 guidance has been tightened with the company now expecting $720-800m.

The broker expects the company to hit the top end of the guidance range, and increases the target to $26 from $25. Outperform retained.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.00 Difference: $2
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 140.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.2, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AGL as Buy (1) -

First half results beat Deutsche Bank's estimates. The result featured higher-than-expected  wholesale electricity margins, which the broker believes represents a taste of things to come over the next 2-3 years.

The broker expects rising wholesale electricity prices will drive a 15% CAGR growth in net profit over FY16-19.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $26.00 from $20.85.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.00 Difference: $2
If AGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 139.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.2, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

Underlying interim net profit for the first half was above expectations. Operating cash flow disappointed Macquarie, as working capital and margins deposits were required.

The broker notes the nature of the business has changed, with the primary driver being electricity generation. This first half was the first time the leverage has become evident, with wholesale electricity EBIT up $100m.

The trend is expected to continue over FY18 and FY19 as the current forward curves are priced through to customers. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $25.63 from $23.44.

Target price is $25.63 Current Price is $24.00 Difference: $1.63
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 121.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 154.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.2, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

The broker has lifted earnings forecasts in the wake of AGL's result, on the back of execution of productivity targets, higher electricity pool prices and expected margin expansion for Largescale Generation Certificates. 

The market has pushed AGL's forward PE and enterprise valuation to historical highs, suggesting strong wholesale prices beyond the broker's forecast period. The broker has less conviction. Equal-weight retained. Target rises to $24.44 from $21.02. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $24.44 Current Price is $24.00 Difference: $0.44
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 150.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.2, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

First half underlying net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts, driven by higher-than-expected retail electricity prices.

The longer-dated hedge book means generation assets will only progressively experience the benefit of increasing forward prices and Ord Minnett believes the market is yet to factor in these tail winds.

The broker retains a Accumulate rating and raises the target to $25 from $23.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $24.00 Difference: $1
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.2, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

Overnight Price: $5.23

UPDATED

Citi rates AMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi analysts had been praying for the absence of any further negative surprises beforehand, and they got what they were hoping for, but still the decision was made to downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

Citi now thinks significant headwinds for the company's Wealth Management business will weigh on the share price. They see no real value and prefer QBE Insurance ((QBE)) in the sector instead. Target $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: $0.37
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

2016 underlying profit was ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The broker believes 2017 will still be a challenging year, as the company is facing margin pressure in wealth management and a reduction in planned profit in life insurance, as well as a mature business running off at around 6% per annum.

The broker appreciates the positive sentiment around costs and capital management  but does not come away from the results with great confidence. Neutral maintained. Target is $5.20.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

2016 normalised profit was broadly in line with expectations. The company has taken a $42m post tax restructuring charge in the result and announced a $500m on-market buy-back.

Macquarie believes the confirmation of the buy-back and the cost-cutting targets for 2017 should be well received and the company's ability to deliver on these targets is the key to sustaining growth in earnings per share.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $5.10 from $4.40.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.70 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.10 cents and EPS of 34.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

In the wake of AMP's result, the broker suggests the stock should re-rate to a higher PE multiple. De-risking of the Life business continues and the wealth manager is transitioning to a higher growth, less capital intensive business, delivering on capital, costs and cash flows.

The Dec Q also saw signs of a recovery in funds flows and AMP has other cards up its sleeve, the broker notes, including a pipeline of corporate mandates and a move into "robo advice". Overweight retained. Target rises to $5.90 from $5.85. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: $0.67
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -

2016 operating earnings were slightly below Ord Minnett's forecast. Financial protection was around $25m better than previously guided and within expectations.

The main negative was operating costs, around $44m more than the broker had forecast, but which the company explains as a one-off structuring charge of $60m.

Ord Minnett believes the stock offers a good risk/reward trade-off and retains an Accumulate rating and $6.00 target.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: $0.77
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

2016 is a year to forget, UBS believes. After the October profit warning, experience losses and cap loss reversals were better than UBS estimated, partly offset by one-off costs.

The broker observes this company is on a firmer footing in 2017, although wealth management drivers are slowing. Neutral retained. Target rises to $5.15 from $4.85.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ  ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation

Overnight Price: $0.79

Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Outperform (1) -

First half results support Credit Suisse's expectations for strong FY17 growth in earnings per share, with the key positives being cash flow and reduced net debt.

The results were in line with estimates and comprised weaker contract revenue and strength in aviation services. Outperform rating and $0.95 target retained.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.165
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 11.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.67.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.99.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAL  BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $4.79

ADDED

Citi rates BAL as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts suspect a recent take-over offer for Mead Johnson is supporting the Bellamy's share price. They acknowledge an unforeseen take-over offer to Bellamy's shareholders is the key risk to their Sell rating.

Other than that, Citi retains a negative view. The analysts argue Bellamy’s is facing multiple company-specific and industry issues.While the restructuring strategy has merits, they comment, short-term risks are still seen as skewed to the downside.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If BAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -59.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP  BAPCOR LIMITED

Retailing

Overnight Price: $5.52

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Resume coverage: Overweight (1) -

The broker has been on restriction during the Hellaby takeover process and is now back to resume coverage with Overweight and a $6.75 target. The broker sees the acquisition as earnings accretive and strategically attractive in providing Bapcor with exposure in NZ and plenty of growth opportunities.

The broker forecasts a compound annual earnings growth rate of 27% for FY16-19 after incorporating Hellaby and expects the market to now refocus on growth. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $1.23
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.14, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 29.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $25.42

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The board has formally given the go-ahead for the Mad Dog  phase 2 project, of which the company's share of capital is US$2.2bn. Approval was expected.

BHP has also ceased production at Escondida ahead of the planned strike which is set to start tomorrow. The duration is uncertain but Macquarie has incorporated a two-week shutdown and 56,000t cut to production estimates for Escondida in FY17.

Outperform and $31 target retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $25.42 Difference: $5.58
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 96.13 cents and EPS of 175.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 62.79 cents and EPS of 127.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.2, implying annual growth of -18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $11.04

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Overweight (1) -

The broker has re-run its numbers following BlueScope's guidance upgrade late last month. Earnings forecast upgrades result and the broker suspects guidance may be conservative, if history is a guide.

Falling debt and strong cash flow generation suggest capital management is increasingly likely over the next six months, the broker believes. With earnings risk remaining to the upside, the broker retains Overweight. Target rises to $12.96 from $11.49. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $12.96 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: $1.92
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.18, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.1, implying annual growth of 69.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.6, implying annual growth of -7.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA  COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks

Overnight Price: $81.93

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Ahead of CBA's result release, the broker has tweaked earnings forecasts while maintaining an Underweight rating and $69 target.

On a PE of 15x and price to book value of 2.3x, it had better be a good first half result, the broker warns. Margins and costs are the key areas of focus, while the broker sees the potential for some change in strategy under the new chairman. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $69.00 Current Price is $81.93 Difference: minus $12.93 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $79.09, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 536.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 550.0, implying annual growth of -0.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 421.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 546.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 561.4, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 418.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF  CHALLENGER LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $11.26

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett remains concerned about valuation metrics and the risks from issuing fixed liabilities to fund investments in riskier asset classes. The broker acknowledges the market likes the strong growth outlook.

While noting it is difficult to find what may cause a de-rating in the stock, the broker maintains a Lighten rating. Target is raised to $9.00 from $7.33.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: minus $2.26 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.49, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.9, implying annual growth of 10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CL1  CLASS LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $3.00

UPDATED

Morgans rates CL1 as Hold (3) -

The analysts comment it was a strong performance from the company in the six months to December. Annualised growth rate in new SMSF accounts came out at 27%.

Morgans has made minor changes to forecasts only. Outer years have received upgrades due to stronger than anticipated growth in SMSF market share (now at 21.7% according to the company). Hold rating retained. Target lifts to $3.37 (was $3.17).

Target price is $3.37 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.37
If CL1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.86.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.70 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CL1 as Buy (1) -

First half results beat Ord Minnett's forecasts.. Revenue increased by 31%, underpinned by growth in billable portfolios as well as impressive cost control.

The broker believes the stock offers a compelling market penetration story in an attractive niche vertical. The broker suspects that net portfolio additions could increase around 20% from current levels and exceed estimates.

Buy rating retained. Target drops to $3.75 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.75
If CL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.18.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.47.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMA  CENTURIA METROPOLITAN REIT

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $2.23

UBS rates CMA as Buy (1) -

First half earnings per share were in line with UBS. Re-valuations surprised on the upside.

Guidance for earnings per share of 17-19c is unchanged. The broker continues to believe in the company's strategy to grow. Buy retained. Target rises to $2.35 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.12
If CMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.74.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Software & Services

Overnight Price: $12.89

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett forecasts management-basis FY17 net profit of US$297m. The broker believes the risk for guidance is low but notes the currency has negatively affected FY17 management earnings per share by around -2% more since the FY16 result.

Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $13.00 from $10.50.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.89 Difference: $0.11
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.41, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 30.71 cents and EPS of 52.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.38 cents and EPS of 61.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of 9.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Overnight Price: $113.20

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Merck and GSK have reported HPV vaccine sales relevant to the company's first half royalty.

Taking third and fourth quarter HPV sales combined, Credit Suisse estimates around US$76m in royalties to CSL, slightly ahead of its first half forecast.

Outperform retained. Target is $119.50.

Target price is $119.50 Current Price is $113.20 Difference: $6.3
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.55, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 182.91 cents and EPS of 395.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 393.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 180.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 217.62 cents and EPS of 465.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 465.2, implying annual growth of 18.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 207.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUA  CENTURIA URBAN REIT

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $2.18

Morgans rates CUA as Hold (3) -

Stockbroker Morgans comments the entity formerly known as 360 Capital Office Fund released an interim result with no surprises. FY17 earnings guidance (and distribution) was reaffirmed at 16c, assuming no acquisitions.

The analysts highlight management's near term focus remains on FY18 lease expiries and executing a new debt facility. Hold rating retained. Target climbs to $2.30 (was $2.26).

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.12
If CUA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.46.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.21.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWN  CROWN RESORTS LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $11.29

Deutsche Bank rates CWN as Buy (1) -

Conditional planning approval for the proposed Queensbridge Hotel Tower has been granted.

As a condition Crown and Schiavello have agreed to invest $100m in tourism and public realm amenities, and a pedestrian link will provide access to Crown Melbourne.

Buy rating and $14.57 target retained.

Target price is $14.57 Current Price is $11.29 Difference: $3.28
If CWN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.46, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 148.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of -58.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.37

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

The  Cowal gold operation has been granted regulatory approval to extend the mine life to 2032.Credit Suisse had already assumed this in its numbers as the previous owner, Barrick, was granted a five-year extension to 2024 in 2014.

The next approval due is for the proposed recovery enhancement project that could increase gold recovery by 5-7%. An Outperform rating is retained and the target is unchanged at $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.73 cents and EPS of 17.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.37 cents and EPS of 22.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.1, implying annual growth of 35.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT  FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $29.65

ADDED

Citi rates FLT as Re-initiation of coverage: Neutral (3) -

Back in early 2015 Citi abandoned coverage with a final Sell rating. Today the broker is back with a Neutral rating. The irony here is the FNArena archive shows $32 as the final price target two years ago. The same target is shown on today's initiation report.

Citi analysts believe the company is facing a challenging near term cyclical outlook on top of long term structural risks which will require a step-up in capex. They expect to see one more downgrade from the company in this cycle.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $29.65 Difference: $2.35
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.15, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 129.20 cents and EPS of 215.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of -6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 136.30 cents and EPS of 227.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.5, implying annual growth of 4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGG  HENDERSON GROUP PLC.

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $3.60

UPDATED

Citi rates HGG as Neutral (3) -

Citi has cut estimates by double digits on continued outflows in the USA and Europe. The analysts acknowledge it appears US outflows have moderated in 2017 to date, but outflows are still ongoing. Near term they see no positive catalysts to change this.

Citi remains of the view upside from the Janus merger synergies should still deliver 10% accretion but for now negative newsflow around outflows is set to dominate market sentiment. Neutral rating retained. Target loses 20c to $3.60. Estimates have been reduced.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $0
If HGG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.15 cents and EPS of 28.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 29.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 5.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates HGG as Neutral (3) -

Pre-tax profit beat Macquarie's estimates, driven by better-than-expected base fees which were partially offset by elevated expenses.

While the valuation appears attractive Macquarie does not expect the stock to outperform until flows turned positive. The broker is forecasting net outflows until June quarter 2018. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $4.23 from $4.32.

Target price is $4.23 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $0.63
If HGG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.79 cents and EPS of 29.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 29.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 5.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL  IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $4.37

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The beat on headline net profit reflected gross margin improvement and lower depreciation.

The broker believes the company's global infrastructure and established relationships in student placement and English-language testing are relatively unique.

This provides barriers to entry for new players and a platform for the company to leverage what is expected to be strong rates of industry growth. Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $4.70 from $4.67.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.33
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.26.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGX  MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $0.36

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

The company has received final statutory approvals for the Iron Hill development and has upgraded its FY17 shipment forecast. This is earlier than Macquarie expected.

The broker upgrades its shipment forecasts to reflect this news. Nevertheless, Iron Hill is expected to generate only modest profits. Outperform rating and $0.53 target retained.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.17
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of -78.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of -94.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 372.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $30.69

ADDED

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Post recent trading update, estimates have been reduced by -1%. Neutral rating and $30.50 price target retained.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $30.69 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 232.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.4, implying annual growth of -3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 178.00 cents and EPS of 232.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA  ORORA LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.89

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett forecasts net profit of $90.4m for the first half, representing a 10.3% increase on the prior corresponding half. Attention will be on the acquisition integration and synergies, the broker expects.

Accumulate retained. Target rises to $3.30 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.41
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $65.25

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

2016 underlying earnings were broadly in line with Credit Suisse estimates. The dividend was better-than-expected and the company will also re-purchase $500m in plc shares in 2017. There was no change in production or capital expenditure guidance.

The broker replaces assumed additional dividends with buy-backs. Credit Suisse now assumes the company will re-purchase $5bn in plc shares in 2018 and $2bn in 2019.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $72 from $70.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $65.25 Difference: $6.75
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.36, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 347.13 cents and EPS of 590.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 546.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 314.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 247.00 cents and EPS of 419.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 399.9, implying annual growth of -26.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Net profit in 2016 was in line with UBS estimates. Cash generation was ahead of the broker's estimate by around US$1bn.

Management has emphasised 2017 would be a continuation of 2016, with a focus on cash returns.

The big issue in the portfolio is Grasberg, because of Indonesian mining policy risk, for which the broker believes the company has a key decision ahead.

Buy retained. Target rises to $75 from $71.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $65.25 Difference: $9.75
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.36, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 265.69 cents and EPS of 535.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 546.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 314.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 216.29 cents and EPS of 429.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 399.9, implying annual growth of -26.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC  RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED

Capital Goods

Overnight Price: $2.75

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

The price has drifted but Macquarie reiterates a liking for the stock and retains an Outperform rating. Target is $3.40.

The broker believes the structural growth potential of the business in the context of a solid US market supports the investment case. Macquarie believes the issues that are weighing on the stock are manageable and of little consequence.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.65
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 15.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $11.21

Citi rates SGM as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Increased confidence about the potential for a positive surprise at the upcoming interim report release has triggered an upgrade to Buy from Neutral at Citi. The analysts mention increased confidence around the company's near term volume outlook.

Citi analysts are currently positioned 10% ahead of consensus for FY17 EBIT forecast. Target remains $13.70.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $11.21 Difference: $2.49
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.39, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 67.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 85.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

Overnight Price: $13.15

ADDED

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts saw an interim update that slightly missed expectations. They have reduced estimates in response, but kept the Neutral rating. Price target rises to $13.35 from $13.15.

The analysts highlight the snail's pace at which margin improvement is being achieved, while pointing out the financial performance, below expectations, was buoyed by items such as an artificially low bad debt charge and capitalised loss reversals in Australia Life.

The shares are not expensive, and there is a dividend yield, but all in all, the analysts find the Suncorp investment story "relatively unexciting".

Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $13.15 Difference: $0.2
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 93.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 97.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Suncorp's first half results were below the broker's expectations. Credit Suisse was pleased with the improvement in underlying insurance margins and a lack of bad debts in the bank.

The broker has decreased its FY17 forecast by -4.9% to reflect the flow-through of actuals, and lowers further out forecasts by -1% reflecting the flagged reinsurance reinstatement.

Outperform rating and $14.20 target retained.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.15 Difference: $1.05
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

First half cash earnings  were slightly below consensus expectations. Macquarie observes operational metrics for home and motor claims are now back to long-term averages.

Second half margins are expected to benefit as the impact of premium re-pricing flows through and costs remain under control.

The broker continues to prefer the stock over Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), given the relative valuation discount as well as the company's ability to grow in profitable markets and its relative margin trajectory.

Outperform  maintained. Target rises to $14.24 from $13.17.

Target price is $14.24 Current Price is $13.15 Difference: $1.09
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 98.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

Suncorp's result was disappointing, falling short of consensus. This despite elevated reserve releases and cyclically low impairments, the broker notes.

The personal lines business remains slow, the broker notes, and reliant on reserve releases, and while NSW CTP pricing is helping, reserving assumptions are clouded. Underweight and $12.00 target retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $13.15 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Analysts at Morgans saw Suncorp releasing an interim report suggesting operations have broadly stabilised, but they like to see more evidence on a sustained turnaround for the general insurance operations.

The analysts have slightly reduced forecasts, while observing the GI underlying insurance margin in 1H17 (11%) remains well below the targeted 12%. Hold rating retained. Target drops to $13.50 from $13.75.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.15 Difference: $0.35
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 73.50 cents and EPS of 92.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 96.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SUN as Accumulate (2) -

First half net profit was above Ord Minnett's forecast although the broker notes the result was messy because of changes in divisions. The dividend was higher than forecast, $0.33 versus $0.26.

The broker is cautious about underlying margin improvement, particularly given the seeming inability to push through price rises that more than offset the claims pressures.

Given a lack of other cheap alternatives in the sector, which is trading at relatively high earnings multiples, Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and trims the target to $14.14 from $14.60.

Target price is $14.14 Current Price is $13.15 Difference: $0.99
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

The first half met the company's broad aim to grow revenues and hold costs flat. At a divisional level, UBS believes this theme is key to the investment case.

With early signs of rate stability, the broker believes the stock still offers relatively safe exposure to a less challenging general insurance environment.

A Buy rating is maintained. Target is raised to $14.45 from $14.25.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $13.15 Difference: $1.3
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.0, implying annual growth of 13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food & Staples Retailing

Overnight Price: $40.98

Morgans rates WES as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects EBIT growth of 9% to $2,303m for the first half, driven by continued growth in Bunnings and Officeworks and a strong result from the resources business on the back of higher coal prices.

The broker expects industry conditions will remain difficult for Coles. Hold rating retained and target raised to $42.27 from $42.

Target price is $42.27 Current Price is $40.98 Difference: $1.29
If WES meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.41, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 210.00 cents and EPS of 255.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.9, implying annual growth of 620.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 224.00 cents and EPS of 258.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 263.5, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW  WOOLWORTHS LIMITED

Food & Staples Retailing

Overnight Price: $25.25

Morgans rates WOW as Reduce (5) -

Morgans expects first half EBIT to fall by -8% to $1,451m, driven by margin pressure in the core food and liquor business. Big W is also expected to show weakness.

The broker's FY17 revenue forecast remains broadly unchanged, while FY18 and FY19 forecasts have been lifted by 6%.

Reduce retained and target reduced to $20.86 from $21.00.

Target price is $20.86 Current Price is $25.25 Difference: minus $4.39 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.29, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 83.00 cents and EPS of 116.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.1, implying annual growth of 10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $31.39

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts have updated their modeling. No changes have been made to Neutral rating or $31.16 price target.

Target price is $31.16 Current Price is $31.39 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.18, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 112.15 cents and EPS of 144.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 137.52 cents and EPS of 171.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.9, implying annual growth of 18.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AGL - AGL ENERGY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $24.00
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $24.00
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $24.00
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $24.00
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $24.00
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $24.00
AMP - AMP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $5.23
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.23
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.23
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.23
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.23
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.23
AQZ - ALLIANCE AVIATION Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.79
BAL - BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA Sell - Citi Overnight Price $4.79
BAP - BAPCOR LIMITED Resume coverage: Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.52
BHP - BHP BILLITON Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $25.42
BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.04
CBA - COMMBANK Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $81.93
CGF - CHALLENGER Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.26
CL1 - CLASS Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.00
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.00
CMA - CENTURIA METROPOLITAN REIT Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.23
CPU - COMPUTERSHARE Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.89
CSL - CSL Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $113.20
CUA - CENTURIA URBAN REIT Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.18
CWN - CROWN RESORTS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $11.29
EVN - EVOLUTION MINING Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.37
FLT - FLIGHT CENTRE Re-initiation of coverage: Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $29.65
HGG - HENDERSON GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.60
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.60
IEL - IDP EDUCATION Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.37
MGX - MOUNT GIBSON IRON Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.36
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $30.69
ORA - ORORA Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.89
RIO - RIO TINTO Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $65.25
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $65.25
RWC - RELIANCE WORLDWIDE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.75
SGM - SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $11.21
SUN - SUNCORP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $13.15
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.15
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.15
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.15
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $13.15
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.15
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $13.15
WES - WESFARMERS Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $40.98
WOW - WOOLWORTHS Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $25.25
WPL - WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $31.39
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

23

2. Accumulate

4

3. Hold

16

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

4

Friday 10 February 2017

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.