Australian Broker Call

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May 11, 2023

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
APX - Appen Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
BOQ - Bank of Queensland Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate Ord Minnett
CGS - Cogstate Downgrade to Hold from Buy Bell Potter
CSR - CSR Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
IDX - Integral Diagnostics Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
MAD - Mader Group Downgrade to Hold from Buy Bell Potter
NXD - NextEd Group Downgrade to Hold from Buy Bell Potter
AKE  ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $12.91

Citi rates AKE as Buy (1) -

Allkem has announced a US$10.6bn merger with Livent. Synergies are expected to be US$125m per annum with US$200m in one-off capital expenditure savings. Livent brings expertise in hydroxide processing via operations in the US.

The merged company would be the third largest producer of lithium carbonate with growth projects such as Sal de Vida and Hombre Muerto.

Allkem shareholders, primarily domiciled in Australia, will get one share of the merged company and own 56%. Citi notes Allkem shares are up 14% over a year compared with Livent being flat. Buy rating maintained. Target is $14.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.91 Difference: $1.59
If AKE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 83.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of 33.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

Allkem will merge with Livent Corp, to create a lithium producer with production capacity of around 250,000tpa by 2027. Management of the merged entity will be dominated by Livent, while Allkem shareholders will have 56% of the merged entity.

Macquarie believes the merger offers potential for significant synergies particularly given the complimentary operating footprints in Argentina and Canada, and Allkem's growing need for additional conversion capacity from technical grade carbonate as Olaroz stage 2 and Sal de Vida ramp up.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $16.70 target.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $12.91 Difference: $3.79
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 100.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 157.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of 33.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AKE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's site visit to Allkem's Olaroz project appears to have pleased, and the broker observes Stage 1 is setting production records and Stage 2 is on track to start production this quarter, heading into a positive pricing period.

Meanwhile, management and economists suggest Argentinian capital controls are easing within the next 18 months, along with the prospect of nationalisation (the government has made no mention of nationalising resources).

Overweight rating and $13.80 target price retained.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $12.91 Difference: $0.89
If AKE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 128.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 102.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of 33.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA  APA GROUP

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $10.44

Macquarie rates APA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes, with the Alinta North West WA asset auction emerging with numerous bidders, this aligns APA Group's pursuit of its remote energy business.

The assets include a residual 11% interest in the Goldfields pipeline, which APA Group already owns, a Newman remote energy grid and a Port Hedland power plant.

The Alinda assets would double the company's dispatchable and non-dispatchable power. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating, noting there is a pain point for investors as pricing for these assets is heated. Target is reduced to $10.36 from $10.52.

Target price is $10.36 Current Price is $10.44 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 34.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 14.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX  APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $2.29

Bell Potter rates APX as Sell (5) -

Appen has released a trading update for the first four months of the year and noted the challenging external operating and
macroeconomic conditions from FY22 have persisted into FY23.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) -excluding FX- was -US$12.4m versus US$7.9m in the previous corresponding period. More positively, annualisied cost savings of US$36m were announced.

Bell Potter now forecasts an FY23 earnings loss of -US$23.2, down from the positive US$14.3 prior. Earnings forecasts for FY24 and FY25 are also downgraded by -49% and -30%, respectively.

After taking into account its lower earnings forecasts and the announced cost savings, the broker lowers its target to $2.05 from $2.25. Sell.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -34.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates APX as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Appen's trading update for April reveals revenue down -21% in the year to date. The company is responding with a -US$46m cost reduction program.

Moreover, 2023 is expected to be loss-making and Macquarie notes a continued risk to revenue in 2024/25 that will affect cash flow and the balance sheet.

The company has no debt but the cash balance is limited and the broker envisages a capital raising is a "modest risk". Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target lowered, amid a change in methodology, to $1.18 from $2.50.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 34.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -34.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates APX as Underweight (5) -

At first glance, Appen's March-quarter result appears to have disappointed Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts, the technology slump continuing to hit revenues.

Management's annual cost savings of US$46m pleased the broker but Morgan Stanley expects this will continue to constrain the company's revenue growth. The broker believes this vindicates its Underweight thesis: that "APX's human-based model is less economical than competitor automated solutions".

FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts fall sharply.

Morgan Stanley prefers Wisetech ((WTC)) and Altium ((ALU)), which offer proven high profits/free cash flow and opportunity to scale.

Target price falls to $2 from $2.25. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -34.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8  BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.50

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy (1) -

Black Cat Syndicate has announced a 25% upgrade to its Paulsen Gold Project Resource, and Shaw and Partners observes 58% of the Resource is now Measured and Indicated, suggesting a mine restart could be on the cards as early as mid-2023.

It is the second Resource upgrade in three months, and the broker observes it is now 360% higher than when first purchase from Northern Star last June, and expects more upgrades to come.

The broker expects mill refurbishment will cost roughly $15m to $20m with the overall funding needed to reach production estimated at $40m, including working capital.

Buy recommendation and 77c target price retained.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.275
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ  BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $5.66

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

As the share price of Bank of Queensland has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $2.84
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 73.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.2, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 68.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.0, implying annual growth of -11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX  CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $0.43

Citi rates CCX as Neutral (3) -

Citi has analysed website traffic across Australia, the USand EMEA as well as US credit card expenditure in the online apparel segment. City Chic Collective's traffic declined again in April, with the broker noting the growth in January appears to have been short lived.

On the other hand the US websites continue to outperform relative to Europe and Australasia. Website visits are considered an important driver of online sales, which account for 75% of the company's revenue in FY22.

The Neutral/High Risk rating and target price of $0.56 are retained.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.13
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS  COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $1.57

Bell Potter rates CGS as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

A one-off restructuring charge will be incurred in the June quarter as Cogstate moves to reduce its full time workforce by -13%, explains Bell Potter.  As a result, management has downgraded FY23 guidance for revenue, earnings and profit.

The broker downgrades its rating to Hold from Buy and lowers its target to $1.70 from $1.80, driven by conservative downgrades to clinical trial contract execution during the remainder of FY23 and FY24.

The analyst also notes the current macroeconomic backdrop is weighing on pipeline strength due to the limited availability of capital across the biotechnology/drug development sector.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.13
If CGS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 152.13.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.45.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $5.33

Citi rates CSR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

CSR's FY23 results beat Citi's estimates and momentum is expected to continue into the first half of FY24 as price rises continued for gyprock while there is a backlog of work yet to be completed.

Yet the broker believes the addition of the aluminium overhang will be too much for investors. Cost volatility and the unpredictability of energy and raw materials makes this segment challenging, in the broker's view.

Moreover, the new loss range of -$5-15m is likely to disappoint and, in the current environment, may not be wide enough, Citi adds.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target lowered to $5.45 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.12
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 39.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 38.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CSR as Underperform (5) -

FY23 results were slightly ahead of Macquarie's expectations. Real price growth produced strong building products margins while aluminium was weaker than expected and the outlook for costs led to markedly weaker guidance for FY24.

CSR did not guide to a building products EBIT outcome for FY24 so the broker considers the outlook is opaque at best and remains cautious about detached housing market developments.

Macquarie acknowledges the medium-term perspective where an aggravated housing shortage could support solid market dynamics but considers the near-term risks are significant. Underperform retained. Target edges down to $4.50 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 37.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Equal-weight (3) -

CSR's FY23 interim result outpaced Morgan Stanley's forecasts, thanks to higher margins as backlogs supported strong volumes.

Management guided to a strong start to FY24 in building products but a sharply weaker-than forecast outlook for Aluminium (bottom end of guidance and below both consensus and the broker's forecasts), but the business is expected to return to profitability in FY25.

The broker posits that building products earnings may have topped out while remaining strong in September half as backlogs cycle out. Morgan Stanley spies challenges ahead for the domestic housing construction market and expects a pronounced cyclical fall.

On the upside, the broker believes the company's strong balance sheet positions it well relative to peers in the event of a downturn.

Equal-Weight rating retained. Target price rises to $5.50 from $4.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.17
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

FY23 results were weaker than Ord Minnett expected amid a disappointing second half outcome in aluminium. Aluminium EBIT was down -80% on the prior year. The Tomago smelter experienced significant volatility in input costs which affected operating margins.

CSR did not provide quantitative guidance but expects a backlog of six months and a near-term emphasis on apartments and non-residential work will offset the anticipated weakness in detached residential construction.

Ord Minnett considers the stock modestly undervalued and retains a Hold rating. Target is $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.17
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.60 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.50 cents and EPS of 36.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CSR as Buy (1) -

CSR's March-quarter result appears to have met UBS's forecasts but Aluminium guidance disappointed.

The broker observes the building products outlook remains firm with apartments bearing the brunt of softer approvals over detached housing, the latter constituting a slim majority of CSR's business.

UBS posits that the company is more than capable of passing through rising input prices and expects the predicted house-price decline may be less than feared.  

While Darra and Badgerys Creek remain uncertain given the delay of the Warragamba dam decision, the broker see this as a potential price mover given Nancy Bird Walton Airport opens in 2026.

The broker perceives slightly elevated FY24 capital expenditure guidance as a positive, auguring strong cash from property sales, and observes the company remains net cash and that the company can always modify its buyback if need be.

Buy rating and $6.50 target price retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $1.17
If CSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EXP  EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $0.28

Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -

Experience Co provided a trading update, flagging a 69% increase in March quarter revenue. Ord Minnett remains confident in the company's leverage to holiday visitors, particularly from China, but is mindful this may not have a meaningful impact until later in the year.

In the interim, the business is expected to increase staffing ahead of the expected surge in demand.

At the same time, FY23 earnings are expected to be particularly affected by disruptions associated with the expansion of the Bamurru Plains site in Northern Territory.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.42 from $0.45.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.135
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 142.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.40 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPR  FLEETPARTNERS GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $2.22

Macquarie rates FPR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the trends across the automotive finance sector remain supportive. The complexity and risk of gradually transitioning automotive fleets to electric vehicles should increase demand for outsourced fleet services and expertise.

Outperform rating and $2.41 target retained for FleetPartners Group.

Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.19
If FPR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.51.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.49.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT  GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.40

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

Strong leasing in retail and industrial occurred in the March quarter and GPT Group has reaffirmed guidance for FY23. Yet Macquarie asserts, with consumer expenditure likely to soften through 2023, re-leasing spreads in both these segments could start to moderate.

Given leasing in the year to date, the company has reiterated a target for office occupancy to reach more than 90% by the end of the year. Macquarie suspects execution on the suite strategy will be key, although progress towards this target will be a positive catalyst.

Outperform retained. Target is steady at $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.6
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 27.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GPT as Buy (1) -

GPT Group's March-quarter operating metrics met UBS's forecasts and managemetnt reiterated guidance.

The broker observes office expiries in FY23/FY24 remain a concern but says the company is set to achieve occupancy of more than 90% by December 30, suggesting it is outpacing peers.

Key drivers going forward include: the transition to a new CEO which could trigger the adoption of an asset-light strategy (separating out REIT properties); and the divestment of the company's stake in Australia Square.

Buy rating and $5.17 target price retained. 

Target price is $5.17 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.77
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 27.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS  HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $3.05

Macquarie rates HLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's analysis suggests high market concentration among Australian pathology providers and this has potential to affect the ACCC clearance conditions on the Australian Clinical Labs ((ACL)) offer.

Competition issues have been identified in previous transactions, the broker points out. With improving volume trends, supplemented by recent bulk billing initiatives, and valuation appeal Macquarie retains an Outperform rating on Healius. Target is $4.05.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $1
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.4, implying annual growth of -89.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 153.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX  INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $3.25

Ord Minnett rates IDX as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

As the share price of Integral Diagnostics has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.35
If IDX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of 20.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 52.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD  MADER GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $4.93

Bell Potter rates MAD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

While Bell Potter downgrades its rating for Mader Group to Hold from Buy (on valuation alone), overall commentary by the broker is very buoyant.

In the group's key market of North America, feedback from several heavy mobile equipment OEMs and dealers suggests equipment orders/backlogs remain at or near-record levels.

It's thought Mader's 96% valuation premium against Mining Services sector peers justifies the analyst's high-growth earnings outlook. The $5.10 target is unchanged.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $0.17
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.96 cents and EPS of 28.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF  MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $1.17

Shaw and Partners rates MVF as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners  found plenty of good takes from Monash IVF's investment day, including an estimated 50% upside to industry volumes. 

Of that, the broker expects Genetics and Disability could generate 20% upside, thanks to extra Federal Budget Medicare funding for genetic screening relating to "Mackenzie's Mission" for three genetic conditions to be made available through Monash IVF's home genetic test kit (and a gap for 700 other conditions).

The broker expects LGBTQI business could account for another 30% upside, as demand for IVF growth, supported by more flexible and remote work options and legislation of same sex marriage.

The broker also spies another potential 20% to profit before tax by 2025 from the SE Asian strategy.

Collectively the broker believes these elements will drive sharply higher profits than consensus suggests but for now, the broker retains a Buy rating and $1.50 target price.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.33
If MVF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of 31.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of 16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXD  NEXTED GROUP LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $1.69

Bell Potter rates NXD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

After NextEd Group provided a lead indicator and campus expansion update, Bell Potter increases its revenue forecasts for FY23-25 by 4%, 9% and 3%, respectively.

Management announced another record number of actively studying English students, at a level more than three times peak pre-covid.

The broker highlights this ongoing strength in English language student numbers and recent pricing increases, along with an expected ramp-up in international Vocational revenue in FY24.

As the analyst's new target of $1.90 (up from $1.70) is set at less than a 15% premium to the current share price, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.21
If NXD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.42.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI  ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $16.47

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial glance, Citi analysts believe today's half-yearly release by Orica revealed underlying EBIT -6% below forecast, but apparently the performance was good enough to beat market consensus.

Cash flow conversion proved less robust, but the 18c dividend beat the 17c put forward by consensus. Citi highlights management retains a positive outlook supported by demand for commodities and an improved mix to higher value services.

Management thus forecasts ongoing strong momentum for the business in H2 FY23. Neutral. Target $15.55.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $16.47 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.59, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 49.30 cents and EPS of 85.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of 118.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 52.60 cents and EPS of 95.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.7, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PIQ  PROTEOMICS INTERNATIONAL LABORATORIES LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $1.00

Morgans rates PIQ as Speculative Buy (1) -

In a significant de-risking event, suggests Morgans, Proteomics International Laboratories has partnered with Sonic Healthcare's ((SHL)) US division.

Pathology labs in general seek mass-market tests to fill excess capacity, explains the broker, and now Sonic has exclusive distribution rights (for five years) to Proteomic's Diabetic Kidney Disease (DKD) prognostic.

The analysts also anticipate success in the US for DKD will trigger further distribution deals over the short to medium term.

Morgans leaves its Speculative Buy rating and $1.77 target unchanged but notes its assumptions are conservative.

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.77
If PIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.26.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RBL  REDBUBBLE LIMITED

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $0.42

Morgans rates RBL as Hold (3) -

Aiming to become cashflow positive, Redbubble has announced additional cost-out measures largely via a reduced headcount.

Management has lowered FY23 opex guidance to $125m-$130m from $128m-$133m and the majority of savings should be in place from FY24, notes Morgans.

The broker lowers its target to 63c from 66c, after allowing for lower opex guidance, as well as implementing minor decreases to forecast revenues due to a softer outlook for consumer spending. Hold.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.215
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK  SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services

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Overnight Price: $23.48

Macquarie rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has started tracking the classic advertising price for 15 industries across for major capital cities and one regional town. This yield tracker shows pricing increased 7%.

There are supportive data points on the top line amid early signs of progress on the dynamic pricing strategy for Seek.

The Seek job advertisement index for April declined -1.4% month-on-month or -19% year-on-year, which reflects a continued moderation over 2023.

Macquarie concludes the cost base of Seek has the most flexibility and can weather expectations for continued job ad declines. Outperform retained. Target is raised to $33.30 from $32.50.

Target price is $33.30 Current Price is $23.48 Difference: $9.82
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.44, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 74.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.2, implying annual growth of 51.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 86.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 6.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SRG  SRG GLOBAL LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $0.75

Shaw and Partners rates SRG as Buy (1) -

SRG Global has upgraded FY23 guidance, a 4.5% beat on the consensus midpoint, observes Shaw and Partners.

The broker sheets 1% of this back to am upgrade to the original pre-acquisition guidance for Asset Care, and observes the integration is proceeding "exceptionally well".

Asset Maintenance, Mining Services and Engineering & Construction are all posting strong performances says the broker, the company contracting more than $1bn of wor in FY23.

Buy rating and $1.10 target price retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.35
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.71.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.74.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TOY  TOYS 'R' US ANZ LIMITED

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $0.02

Shaw and Partners rates TOY as Buy (1) -

Toys 'R' Us A&NZ's trading updated pleased Shaw and Partners, the company reporting cost cuts, working capital releases, and a $1.5m debt facility.

Management reaffirmed its January-half goal of gaining 5% market penetration in the toys, baby and hobby markets in Australian and the UK.

The broker now expects all key metrics to improve from the end of July onwards. 

Buy rating and 10c target price retained.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.083
If TOY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 488% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.13.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.43.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSP  WHISPIR LIMITED

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $0.28

Shaw and Partners rates WSP as Buy (1) -

Whispir's March-quarter trading update disappointed Shaw and Partners, management cutting revenue guidance (again).

Like many tech companies, the company has performed well on cost cutting but has been unable to grain revenue traction post covid.

Shaw and Partners keeps a keen eye peeled to the company's cash position, expecting a small cash burn of -$900,000 on its less-than $5m cash base.

The broker acknowledges the company's risk profile has risen but so has its value relative to the share price, and believes the company presents as an attractive acquisition.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 70c from $1.10.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.42
If WSP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.58.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
APA APA Group $10.27 Macquarie 10.36 10.52 -1.52%
APX Appen $2.21 Bell Potter 2.05 2.25 -8.89%
Macquarie 1.18 2.50 -52.80%
Morgan Stanley 2.00 2.25 -11.11%
CGS Cogstate $1.54 Bell Potter 1.70 1.80 -5.56%
CSR CSR $5.18 Citi 5.45 5.80 -6.03%
Macquarie 4.50 4.55 -1.10%
Morgan Stanley 5.50 4.70 17.02%
Ord Minnett 5.50 4.92 11.79%
EXP Experience Co $0.28 Ord Minnett 0.42 0.45 -6.67%
NXD NextEd Group $1.68 Bell Potter 1.90 1.70 11.76%
RBL Redbubble $0.43 Morgans 0.63 0.66 -4.55%
SEK Seek $24.37 Macquarie 33.30 32.50 2.46%
WSP Whispir $0.29 Shaw and Partners 0.70 1.10 -36.36%
Summaries
AKE Allkem Buy - Citi Overnight Price $12.91
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.91
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.91
APA APA Group Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.44
APX Appen Sell - Bell Potter Overnight Price $2.29
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.29
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.29
BC8 Black Cat Syndicate Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.50
BOQ Bank of Queensland Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.66
CCX City Chic Collective Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.43
CGS Cogstate Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.57
CSR CSR Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $5.33
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.33
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.33
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.33
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.33
EXP Experience Co Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.28
FPR FleetPartners Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.22
GPT GPT Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.40
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.40
HLS Healius Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.05
IDX Integral Diagnostics Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.25
MAD Mader Group Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $4.93
MVF Monash IVF Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $1.17
NXD NextEd Group Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.69
ORI Orica Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $16.47
PIQ Proteomics International Laboratories Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $1.00
RBL Redbubble Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.42
SEK Seek Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $23.48
SRG SRG Global Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.75
TOY Toys 'R' Us ANZ Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.02
WSP Whispir Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.28
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

17

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

4

Thursday 11 May 2023

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