Australian Broker Call

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March 11, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
IPH - IPH Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $23.65

Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank believes the result and guidance from IGT supports its view that the North American gaming market is stable, and Aristocrat Leisure is continuing to gain share in the gaming operations segment and hold share in a very competitive outright sales segment.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $39.75 target as the share price is trading at a -39% discount to its valuation.

Target price is $39.75 Current Price is $23.65 Difference: $16.1
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.3, implying annual growth of 15.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.2, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HPI  HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $3.26

Deutsche Bank rates HPI as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Hotel Property is the owner/landlord of 42 hotels, of which 41 are leased by and operated by Coles ((COL)). Coles has entered a JV with Australian Venue Co in relation to its hotels business.

Deutsche Bank believes the value in Hotel Property is in its liquor and gaming licenses, assets that may be underutilised under the Coles JV arrangement.

Because of the size, relevance and client interest the broker initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $3.44 target.

Target price is $3.44 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.18
If HPI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of -35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH  IPH LIMITED

Legal

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Overnight Price: $6.53

Macquarie rates IPH as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes IPH is well-positioned in the three-way merger tussle, as the Qantm ((QIP)) merger deal with Xenith ((XIP)) remains subject to a number of hurdles.

Importantly, there is the opportunity for a competing proposal should it emerge and Macquarie calculates there is material accretion potential.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $7.10 from $6.00. The broker factors in earnings upgrades driven by FX and a multiple re-rating, with M&A risk skewed to the upside.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: $0.57
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.69.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.30 cents and EPS of 32.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.34.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC  INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $13.91

Deutsche Bank rates IVC as Sell (5) -

InvoCare has announced an underwritten placement to raise $65m and a share purchase plan to raise a further $20m. The funds will be raised via a book build at an underwritten price of $13.30 a share, a -7.3% discount to the last closing price.

The funds will be used to de-leverage the business. Deutsche Bank maintains a Sell rating and $11.70 target.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.5, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.9, implying annual growth of 8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.69

Credit Suisse rates OGC as Underperform (5) -

After the strategy briefing, Credit Suisse notes visibility on the company's production profile now stretches to over five years, and longer if Macraes is extended as expected.

The joint ventures have potential, and the broker points to the company's aspiration of 1.0m ounces/year via corporate activity or greenfield/JV exploration.

Credit Suisse acknowledges actual mining and processed costs are above projections, but reserve and production growth has preserved returns.

The broker maintains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $4.20 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.09 cents and EPS of 10.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.45 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 39.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
IPH IPH Macquarie 7.10 6.00 18.33%
OGC OCEANAGOLD Credit Suisse 4.20 4.00 5.00%
Summaries
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $23.65
HPI HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS Initiation of coverage with Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.26
IPH IPH Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.53
IVC INVOCARE Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $13.91
OGC OCEANAGOLD Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.69
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

3

5. Sell

2

Monday 11 March 2019

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