Australian Broker Call

April 19, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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Last Updated: 10:31 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CSR - CSR Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
MYR - MYER Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
NCM - NEWCREST MINING Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
TPM - TPG TELECOM Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
AHY  ASALEO CARE LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

Overnight Price: $1.73

Citi rates AHY as Neutral (3) -

The Swedish company, SCA, which owns 35% of Azaleo and licenses some of its brands for sale in Australia and the Pacific has received a private equity bid.

There is no change of control in the contracts and, in Citi's view, the main risk could be a stock overhang, if a new owner does not believe the stake in Azaleo is a core holding. Neutral and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: minus $0.225 (current price is over target).
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

Overnight Price: $5.21

Citi rates AZJ as Sell (5) -

The company has lowered EBIT guidance to $800-850m, having assessed the damage from Cyclone Debbie.

While the network will probably be able to recover repair costs through the regulatory process, earnings from some railings will not be recovered, Citi believes, and, as many miners are still able to operate, in contrast to 2011, there is scope for some higher tonnage in FY18.

 As a result, the broker does not envisage any lasting impact on the company.  Target rises to $4.85 from $4.70.  Sell rating retained.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 550.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

The company expects Cyclone Debbie will reduce FY17 EBIT by -$100-115m and guidance is revised to $800-850m.

Three of the four coal networks are currently up and running while the Goonyella network is expected to be operating again by next week.

Deutsche Bank incorporates the update into earnings estimates and, given the one-off nature of the cyclone, the Hold rating and $5.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 550.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

The company suggests Cyclone Debbie will have minimal long-term impact. Around $70-80m of the impact is associated with the network business, where Macquarie observes costs will be recovered in FY19. Revised guidance has fallen by $100m  to EBIT of $800-850m.

Macquarie considers the dividend a potential area of uncertainty. The board has moved to 100% pay-out ratio but the broker calculates that a simple application would mean 22.4c for FY17 from 24.6c in FY16.

Neutral rating and $4.98 target retained.

Target price is $4.98 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 550.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has reduced FY17 EBIT guidance to $800-850m, down -$100-115m as a result of disruptions caused by Cyclone Debbie.

Morgan Stanley considers the disruptions non-recurring and does not envisage an incremental delay to the company achieving its cost reductions in FY17 and FY18.

Equal -weighted rating retained. Target is raised to $5.15 from $4.85. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.70 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 550.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes, while Cyclone Debbie has caused a material impact on the company's earnings outlook, the valuation impact is immaterial, given the value protections within the network regulatory regime.

The company expects a negative impact on EBIT of $100-115m in FY17, of which $70-80m will be recovered through the regulatory regime.

The broker considers the stock to be fair to fully priced at present, given its growth outlook and risk profile. The backdrop of strong coal prices also is a positive for the company and its customers.

Morgans lifts the target to $4.92 from $4.88. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $4.92 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 550.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Sell (5) -

While Cyclone Debbie has affected FY17 earnings, Ord Minnett believes the company has the recovery mechanisms in place to largely re-coup this in future years.

Nevertheless, the broker maintains a Sell recommendation, continuing to envisage significant downside risk associated with the upcoming UT5 decision on rail access, the freight review and iron ore volumes.

The broker trims the target to $4.15 from $4.20. Ord Minnett considers the damage done to the central Queensland coal network by Cyclone Debbie, in particular the Goonyella system, is far worse than the damage from Cyclone Yazi in 2011.

The company stated Cyclone Debbie is likely to reduce FY17 group EBIT by -$100-115m, of which $70-80m should be recovered through the regulatory processes. Ord Minnett downgrades FY17 forecasts by -14% and upgrades FY18 by 3%.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 550.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AZJ as Sell (5) -

Following the company's quantification of the impact from Cyclone Debbie, and incorporating a delay to the UT5 regulatory review process, UBS downgrades forecasts for earnings per share by -15% and -5% in FY17 and FY18 respectively.

The first year of normalised earnings is now envisaged to be FY20, in which the broker forecasts earnings per share and distributions per share of $0.30. Sell rating and $4.80 target retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 550.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTT  BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $11.15

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates BTT as Hold (3) -

Second-quarter funds under management numbers signal strong inflows in JO Hambro and a large institutional cash mandate in the Australian business.

 Ord Minnett observes currency movements had a negative impact in the quarter, lowering funds under management by around -4%, although this was offset by performance.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $10.50 from $9.80.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If BTT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.76, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.2, implying annual growth of 16.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $4.50

Citi rates CSR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi reviews aluminium and FX forecasts and maintains FY17 EBIT estimates unchanged. FY18 and FY19 EBIT estimates rise by 13% and 8% respectively.

The target is raised to $4.32 from $4.30, as the broker observes the company has been inactive in its share buy-back since September.

Due to this inactivity, and despite a 6.2% dividend yield, the broker's recommendation is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 31.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 41.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates CSR as Hold (3) -

The company has sold its Monier Roofing manufacturing site, which is expected to generate EBIT for the property division of $49.2m over FY17 and FY18.

Manufacturing operations will continue under an operating lease in the short term and the company will transfer this to a new site over the next three to four years. Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and $4.57 target.

Target price is $4.57 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.07
If CSR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 31.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

The company has announced the sale of the Monier Roofing manufacturing site for an EBIT contribution of $49.2m. Macquarie expects EBIT of $300.6m and net profit of $183.4m in FY17.

Weather may have affected some demand towards the end of the year but the broker does not expect a discernible impact across the portfolio.

While the  property sale adds a fillip to FY18, and FY17 results are expected to be solid, the broker expects cyclical risks will outweigh potential near-term positives. Neutral retained. Target is $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.1
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 31.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 38.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $7.47

Morgans rates LNK as Hold (3) -

Sunsuper and Kinetic Super intend to merge. This suggests Link will lose Kinetic as a funds administration client. Morgans estimates a -2-3% impact on both revenue and EBITDA if this scenario plays out.

The broker still expects the company to benefit in the longer term from the consolidation in super funds as it provides funds administration services to some of the largest industry funds. Hold rating and $8.16 target retained.

Target price is $8.16 Current Price is $7.47 Difference: $0.69
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.20, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 160.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.10 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

Overnight Price: $10.13

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Recent weakness in iron ore prices have been a driver of the stock moving lower, although Morgan Stanley's forecast for FY18 and beyond are below the current spot price and the broker assumes a price realisation for iron ore fines of 77% in the second half of FY17.

A majority of the company's EBITDA is expected to come from lithium production from FY19 onwards, reducing the impact of any negative moves in the iron ore market.

Morgan Stanley awaits further information on the Wodgina offtake contract but identifies this as a positive value driver for the company.

Overweight retained. Target is $13.15. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $3.02
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.10 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.7, implying annual growth of -24.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYR  MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

Overnight Price: $1.16

Macquarie rates MYR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie finds industry feedback in the apparel sector of concern. The company and a number of its peers report weak sales post Christmas.

The broker believes Myer remains one of the most sensitive retail businesses to a change in sales and cost reductions remain a key factor in supporting earnings over the short term.

Ongoing sales weakness in the industry is an increasing risk and the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. $1.21 target retained.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.055
If MYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $23.98

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

The operations at Cadia East underground have been suspended following an earthquake. All mine personnel were evacuated safely and no injuries were reported. An investigation of the mine is in progress.

The company believes it will miss FY17 guidance for Cadia but considers it too early to know if group guidance will be affected.

Citi lowers FY17 production expectations for Cadia to 718,000 ounces. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $27.40 from $27.70.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: $3.42
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.24 cents and EPS of 99.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.21 cents and EPS of 125.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates NCM as Sell (5) -

The company has advised that an earthquake near its Cadia operation has forced mining operations to be suspended.

Cadia will not meet full year guidance and Deutsche Bank downgrades production estimates by -10%. FY17 earnings estimates are reduced by -15%, such as the importance of Cadia to the portfolio.

The broker maintains a Sell rating and reduces the target to $18.20 from $18.50.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: minus $5.78 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

The company has advised that the earthquake which has closed Cadia East has caused only modest damage to underground infrastructure. Cadia will miss production guidance in FY17.

Macquarie reduces FY17 earnings forecast for Cadia by -18%, after factoring in the seismic event and processing of low-grade stockpiles as a result.

Neutral rating and $24 target retained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: $0.02
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 57.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 82.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

Mining operations at Cadia have been suspended following an earthquake in the region. Assuming a month is lost in production, Morgan Stanley's Cadia estimates for FY17 drop to 37,000 ounces.

Cadia is the lowest cost operation in the group and the impact on earnings per share is calculated at around -4%.

The broker believes the outage has the potential to affect sentiment in the short term but should not significantly alter the fundamental valuation, provided normal operations are resumed. Equal-weight rating,  Attractive industry view and $21.50 target retained.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: minus $2.48 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates NCM as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The company has reported an earthquake occurred near its Cadia East mine. Cadia comprises 31% of total production.

 No major damage is apparent and the company only expects a small impact on the FY17 result, although it will take more time to assess the damage fully. At this stage Morgans factors in a two-month interruption to production.

After recent share price strength and, with the expected earnings impact from Cadia, the broker downgrades the rating to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $25.78 from $26.10.

Target price is $25.78 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: $1.8
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NCM as Sell (5) -

The company has noted some damage to the Cadia mine, which was affected by a recent earthquake. Further investigations are underway and mining has been temporarily suspended.

UBS observes Cadia is the jewel in the company's crown and accounts for 31% of FY17 production guidance. Cadia is not expected to meet guidance for FY17, and every month of lost production risks around 70,000 ounces or around -9% to the broker's earnings estimates.

It is too early to tell, UBS believes, if production will be affected beyond FY17 or what the remediation costs could be. Initial company commentary suggests that the medium to long-term outlook has not been compromised.  UBS retains a Sell rating and $14.02 target.

Target price is $14.02 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: minus $9.96 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

Overnight Price: $2.79

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates S32 as Hold (3) -

The company has dropped the proposed acquisition of the Metropolitan Colliery and associated 17% stake in the Port Kembla terminal.

Deutsche Bank believe the acquisition was value accretive and removing this has reduced FY17 and FY18 earnings estimates by -4% and -6% respectively. The broker also incorporates the US$500m by-back in its numbers.

Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 26.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 22.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of -13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

The company will not proceed with the acquisition of the Metropolitan Colliery because of the number of concessions required by the ACCC.

Macquarie suspects the concessions related to some level of sustained price discounting of the benchmark coking coal price and/or a commitment to domestic volumes, as well as maintaining the current product mix.

Meanwhile, the broker finds the farm-in deal with Trilogy interesting as it could mean the company adds copper production in the medium to longer term.

The broker suspects the US$200m allocated to the Metropolitan acquisition could be used to boost the US$500m buy-back later this year. Outperform rating retained. Target is $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.81
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.75 cents and EPS of 31.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.68 cents and EPS of 31.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of -13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

The company's decision not to proceed with the US$200m acquisition of Metropolitan mine leaves, in Morgan Stanley's view, an additional cash buffer following the recent US$500m buy-back announcement.

The broker does not consider the acquisition was material but the company's adherence to a value focus resonates favourably. The company has determined it would not be prepared to make concessions to the regulator regarding coal supply to domestic steel manufacturers.

Overweight retained. Target is $3.35. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.56
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.61 cents and EPS of 38.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.93 cents and EPS of 31.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of -13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

The company has announced that the concessions required to complete its proposed transaction for the Metropolitan Colliery would adversely affect the value proposition and it will no longer proceed.

While disappointed that the company has missed out on Metropolitan, UBS believes it was a minor acquisition and welcomes the company's revelation that it is not prepared to compromise shareholder value in pursuit of growth.

UBS continues to believe the company will look for value-accretive acquisitions and foster early entry joint ventures. Buy and $2.80 target retained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.01
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.29 cents and EPS of 31.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.96 cents and EPS of 31.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of -13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEH  SINO GAS & ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED

NatGas

Overnight Price: $0.09

Citi rates SEH as Buy (1) -

The company has acquired CBM Energy's option in Linxing to earn an additional 5.25% interest  for US$3.9m. The deal adds 6% to Citi's target price and is 3% accretive  to the un-risked discounted cash flow estimate.

If exercised, the option would provide the company with a seat on the joint management committee and, the broker suspects, more influence.  Buy, High Risk retained. Target raised to $0.17 from $0.16.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.076
If SEH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 94.00.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SEH as Outperform (1) -

The company has purchased CBM Energy's option to acquire an additional 5.25% interest in the Linxing PSC for US$3.9m. As a result, the company will have around a 37% interest in the PSC.

Macquarie believes the market is over-estimating the risk in the company's project, and the ability to move money out of the subsidiary, and that there is a significant de-risking if Sino Energy can deliver on its 2017 production target.

Outperform and $0.20 target retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.106
If SEH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.83.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.27.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYD  SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

Overnight Price: $6.91

Morgan Stanley rates SYD as Overweight (1) -

The company is due to respond to the Commonwealth Governments proposal for the western Sydney airport by May 8. Morgan Stanley believes there is share price upside if the company exercises its right of first refusal or lets the opportunity pass.

The government has proposed that Sydney Airport fund and develop the western Sydney airport but Morgan Stanley believes the company is highly unlikely to accept the proposal as it stands.The broker believes it is in the company's interest to preserve its right of refusal for as long as possible.

Morgan Stanley retains a Overweight rating, $7.07 target and Cautious industry view.

Target price is $7.07 Current Price is $6.91 Difference: $0.16
If SYD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.65, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPM  TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication

Overnight Price: $5.50

UBS rates TPM as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has decided it is time to buy the stock and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is steady at $6.70.

The broker believes the decline in the share price suggests the market could be valuing the company's foray into mobiles as destroying around $900m of value. This is also possibly implying that the market is factoring in a long-term mobile market share of around 4-5%.

The broker believes the market's reaction is excessive. The stock is now the broker is preferred pick, given the strong free cash flow in its underlying business.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.2
If TPM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.14, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -15.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AHY - ASALEO CARE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.73
AZJ - AURIZON HOLDINGS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $5.21
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.21
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.21
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.21
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.21
Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.21
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $5.21
BTT - BT INVEST MANAGEMENT Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.15
CSR - CSR Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.50
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.50
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.50
LNK - LINK ADMINISTRATION Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.47
MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.13
MYR - MYER Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.16
NCM - NEWCREST MINING Buy - Citi Overnight Price $23.98
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $23.98
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $23.98
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $23.98
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $23.98
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $23.98
S32 - SOUTH32 Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.79
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.79
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.79
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.79
SEH - SINO GAS & ENERGY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.09
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.09
SYD - SYDNEY AIRPORT Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.91
TPM - TPG TELECOM Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.50
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

9

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

5

Wednesday 19 April 2017

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