Australian Broker Call

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December 11, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
APX - Appen Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
DRR - DETERRA ROYALTIES Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
EVN - Evolution Mining Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
ILU - Iluka Resources Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
LYC - Lynas Corp Downgrade to Lighten from Buy Ord Minnett
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
NST - Northern Star Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
SFR - Sandfire Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
SYR - Syrah Resources Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
ADI  APN INDUSTRIA REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.95

Macquarie rates ADI as No Rating (-1) -

APN Industria REIT announced a $35m equity raise to partially fund $92m of industrial acquisitions and raised FY21 guidance by 2-3%.

Following the acquisitions, the portfolio will be split 61% industrial and 39% office.

Consistent with strong collection in FY20, collection rates in FY21 are 99% year-to-date. The REIT also announced a 4.3% increase in asset valuations driven by industrial.

Given research restrictions, Macquarie offers no earnings forecast, valuation or target price.

Current Price is $2.95. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AHY  ASALEO CARE LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $1.23

Credit Suisse rates AHY as Outperform (1) -

Asaleo Care announced that it has received an unsolicited, indicative, conditional and non-binding proposal from the ultimate parent of its major shareholder Essity at $1.26 per share in cash, less dividends. The company advised shareholders to take no action.

Credit Suisse increases the target to $1.50 from $1.28 and maintains the Outperform rating.

The broker thinks the deal is likely to proceed, albeit at a higher bid given the existing supplier and brand license relationship.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.27
If AHY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 78.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

API  AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $1.29

Macquarie rates API as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage on Australian Pharmaceutical Industries with an Outperform rating and a price target of $1.47.

The broker believes the company's exposure to pharmacy, health and skincare and the recent lowering of regulatory risk make it an attractive asset.

The analyst notes the company stands to benefit from a number of growth trends including the covid reopen trade as consumers stock up on beauty products. Additionally, it's considered there's a good balance of higher-margin front-of-house sales.

Other tailwinds include exposure to high-margin skin/laser clinics and a strong customer loyalty program through its 'Sister Club'.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.18
If API meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.79 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.89 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX  APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $26.20

Credit Suisse rates APX as Neutral (3) -

After adjusting for foreign exchange, Credit Suisse calculates Appen's new 2020 guidance equates to $109-111m versus prior $125-130m. Management largely attributes this to covid-19 factors and clients reprioritsing to new product areas.

In the broker's view, the consistent beat/upgrade pattern is likely not to be relied upon anymore. The earnings base has become sizeable, which is considered to make beats and high growth rates harder. Also, revenue is predominantly non-recurring notes the analyst.

The neutral rating is unchanged and the target decreased to $26 from $30.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $26.20 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.78, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.82 cents and EPS of 51.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 67.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.71 cents and EPS of 67.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 37.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates APX as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Appen's trading update highlights a weaker than expected pipeline of project work over the third and fourth quarters of 2020.

The company has cut its 2020 operating earnings guidance by -15-16% to $106–109m, citing pandemic disruption to its key customers and currency moves affecting Appen’s large mature projects.

Ord Minnett believes there is some uncertainty in the short term with respect to the sales pipeline although the industry backdrop remains favourable. The broker expects growth momentum to bounce back over FY21-22.

Led by the change in its earnings forecasts, Ord Minnett reduces the target for Appen to $30 from $35 while upgrading its recommendation to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.20 Difference: $3.8
If APX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.78, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 67.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 37.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates APX as Buy (1) -

Appen has guided to FY20 operating income of $106-$109m implying a second-half operating income of $57-$60m, which is -23-27% below UBS's forecast of $78m driven by softer than expected fourth-quarter revenues.

Long-term trends remain favourable and FY21 should see a strong rebound in activity as covid disruptions unwind, suggests UBS.

Buy rating retained with a target of $44.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $26.20 Difference: $17.8
If APX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.78, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 67.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 94.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 37.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC  ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

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Overnight Price: $1.91

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Changes to the broker's alumina and aluminium price forecasts, updates to caustic soda price assumptions and an appreciation of the Australian dollar prompts the broker to increase Alumina Ltd's target price to $2.15 from $2.05.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.24
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 8.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.88 cents and EPS of 6.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN  BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $4.41

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

Recent ABS data indicates the Australian birth rate declined by -3% during 2019 relative to the previous corresponding period.

While this is a headwind for Baby Bunting’s earnings growth, Citi sees the company having multiple offsetting factors including store rollout (56 stores at FY20, and a target of over 100), with scope for the target to be increased as the New Zealand network plan is developed.

Additionally, other offsetting factors are industry consolidation leading to greater market share and increased bargaining power with suppliers, along with supply chain efficiencies.

The Buy rating is unchanged with a target price of $5.48.

Target price is $5.48 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $1.07
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 143.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $42.48

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie commodity strategy team has recently upgraded iron ore price assumptions and believe there remains significant upside for iron ore miners at spot prices.

However, the broker is cautious on miners with exposure to thermal coal given earnings downside risk at spot prices and note that there remains longer-term downside risk for alumina.

The broker has average earnings upgrades over the next three years of around 60% for BHP Group.

Macquarie's forecasts are within the company’s FY21 guidance, while iron ore forecasts are at the top end of the 276-286mt range.

The Outperform rating and $46 target are unchanged.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $42.48 Difference: $3.52
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.75, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 308.72 cents and EPS of 386.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 348.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 278.14 cents and EPS of 348.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 330.7, implying annual growth of -5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

The broker has updated its commodity price forecasts for iron ore, copper, met coal and brent oil, driving positive revisions to BHP's earnings forecasts over FY21-23. 

Overweight rating is retained with the target rising to $46.15 from $40.4. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $46.15 Current Price is $42.48 Difference: $3.67
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.75, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 234.46 cents and EPS of 372.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 348.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 206.79 cents and EPS of 332.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 330.7, implying annual growth of -5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP Group's share price is up 14% year to date led by a strong recovery in commodity prices post the second-quarter covid lows. UBS highlights iron ore looks on track to average US$107/t in 2020 versus US$93.5/t in 2019. Copper prices are also expected to rise in 2021.

Incorporating the higher iron ore and copper prices in 2021, UBS expects a rise of 18% in BHP's FY21 net profit to circa US$14.3bn.

The broker prefers BHP over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) due to the risk to Rio's business in terms of iron ore volumes in 2021 and possible financial penalties from Juukan Gorge.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price rises to $44.5 from $39.25.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $42.48 Difference: $2.02
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.75, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 286.88 cents and EPS of 410.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 348.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 286.88 cents and EPS of 412.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 330.7, implying annual growth of -5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIM  CIMIC GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $26.83

UBS rates CIM as Neutral (3) -

With the partial divestment of contract miner, Thiess, UBS notes CIMIC Group is even more leveraged to the Australian infrastructure construction cycle. The broker estimates construction and services activities currently represent circa 70% of CIMIC's earnings.

The group is the dominant civil construction company in the Australian infrastructure construction market and is seen by UBS as being highly leveraged to the increasing major infrastructure investment.

Looking at the recent share price rally, UBS maintains its Neutral rating with the target price rising to $27.50 from $23.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $26.83 Difference: $0.67
If CIM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.75, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 205.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.1, implying annual growth of -8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW  DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $5.35

UBS rates DOW as Buy (1) -

UBS views Downer EDI as a restructuring story that, once complete, should position the company to deliver sustainably enhanced free cash flows of around $350m.

The ongoing divestment of the mining and laundries segment are catalysts, according to UBS, that will drive the share price re-rate.

The broker retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $6.30 from $5.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.95
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.6, implying annual growth of 22.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR  DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $4.97

UBS rates DRR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Buy to reflect the run-up in the share price. The target rises to $5 from $4.80.

After a covid impacted first quarter for the miners, the mining sector has rebounded strongly and is up 23% year to date against the ASX300 which is up 4% year to date.

With balance sheets restored, capital spend contained and free cash flow at record levels, the broker considers miners to be in a strong position which should see increased returns in 2021.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.03
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.6.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 19.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBO  EBOS GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $23.95

Macquarie rates EBO as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Macquarie initiates coverage with a Neutral recommendation and NZ$26.17 target price for EBOS Group.

Recent good trading has seen the company re-rate, however, the broker thinks the short-term outlook is unclear and awaits FY21 earnings catalysts/medium-term visibility.

The company’s core business centres around wholesale distribution of pharmaceutical and general healthcare products to pharmacies, hospitals, GPs, and other primary healthcare providers.

The company also provides 3PL/4PL services to importers and exporters of healthcare and consumer products.

Current Price is $23.95. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 83.10 cents and EPS of 110.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 89.30 cents and EPS of 117.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.1, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.89

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

The broker expects gold to be in a holding pattern in 2021 with global growth offset by a weaker US dollar and inflation.

Driven by its recent pull-back which has brought the stock closer to its valuation and noting further expansion potential, Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target falls to $4.60 from $4.90. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 52.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $22.51

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie commodity strategy team has recently upgraded iron ore price assumptions and believe there remains significant upside for iron ore miners at spot prices.

The broker has average earnings upgrades over the next three years of around 125% for Fortescue Metals Group.

Free cash flow and dividend remains positive, with the company paying out around US$9.4b in dividends over the last decade, and on Macquarie's forecasts will pay a further US$27.3b in dividends over the next decade.

The company is the broker's preferred exposure in the large cap space. The Outperform rating and $23 target are unchanged.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.51 Difference: $0.49
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.71, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 261.00 cents and EPS of 329.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 308.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 268.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 171.00 cents and EPS of 213.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.9, implying annual growth of -35.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

The broker has updated its commodity price forecasts for iron ore which along with the appreciation expected in the Australian dollar drives positive revisions to Fortescue Metals Group's earnings forecasts over FY21-22. 

Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating with the target rising to $17.45 from $14.20. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $22.51 Difference: minus $5.06 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.71, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 405.71 cents and EPS of 396.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 18.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 308.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 268.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 216.54 cents and EPS of 219.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.9, implying annual growth of -35.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GXY  GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $2.01

Morgan Stanley rates GXY as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

The broker has updated Galaxy Resources's model on account of the upgrades to lithium prices with the target rising to $1.35 from $1.25.

Underweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If GXY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 138.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 138.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  IGO LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $5.09

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Nickel is expected to be a beneficiary of the trends and Morgan Stanley prefers pure-play stocks like Western Areas over IGO ((IGO)). 

Equal-weight. Target price rises to $5.15 from $$5.05. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.06
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting downside of -15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 51.50 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

IGO has purchased a 24.99% stake from Tianqi in the Greenbushes lithium mine along with a 49% interest in the downstream Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant for US$1.4bn.

UBS considers the acquisition shrewd although via a complicated structure. According to the broker, the Greenbushes mine is a tier 1 asset, which is rare, and lithium has a bright future. The broker expects electric vehicles to grow in scale by circa 8x by 2030.

With investors craving exposure to the electric vehicle raw material thematic but lacking quality options, UBS suggests IGO now offers investors this exposure.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target price rising to $5.85 from $5.45.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.76
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting downside of -15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

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Overnight Price: $5.84

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Supportive supply-demand benefitted iron ore this year but the second half of 2020 could be weaker, suggests the broker.

Noting Iluka resources has reached the broker's valuation levels, the broker downgrades its rating to Equal weigh from Overweight.

Target price rises to $5.20 from $5. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.80 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 25.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC  LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $4.01

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Downgrade to Lighten from Buy (4) -

Ord Minnett has substantially downgraded its rating to Lighten from Buy with the target unchanged at $4.2.

The broker highlights Lynas Corp's stock price is up 115% since July and is now considered fair value. Investors are advised to wait for a more attractive re-entry level since the outperformance looks unsustainable, in Ord Minnett's view.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.19
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.80.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 46.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.64.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates LYC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Lynas Corp's share price has risen circa 80% year to date and has moved from being a large discount to UBS's net present value of the stock to a small premium.

The broker thinks the circa US$65-70/kg for Neodymium-Praseodymium is now priced in versus the circa US$40-45/kg at the beginning of the year. Also, there remains execution risk on the plant restructure which is set to cost around $500m.

While UBS likes Lynas’ exposure to electric vehicles and acknowledges its strategic position as one of only two non-China rare earth producers, the broker considers the risk/reward more balanced.

UBS downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy with the target rising to $4.30 from $4.05.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.29
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.45.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.23.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ  MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury

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Overnight Price: $0.64

Credit Suisse rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse considers Michael Hill International has provided a strong trading update, with four weeks of critical Christmas trade remaining. Year-to-date same store sales grew 7.9%, largely driven by Australia, notes the broker.

The analyst believes the over 200 basis point gross margin improvement reflects a balance of both margin and sales growth, after a period where management focused on defending market share.

Guidance is for first half earnings (EBIT) to materially exceed the previous corresponding period.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is increased to NZ$0.93 from NZ$0.69.

Current Price is $0.64. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 988.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $34.75

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

The broker has updated its commodity price forecasts for iron ore and lithium spodumene prices over FY21-23.

Morgan Stanley assumes production at Kemerton will commence from December 2021 onwards, a time when the company will also benefit from the higher lithium hydroxide forecast.

Underweight retained. Target rises to $30.20 from $23.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $30.20 Current Price is $34.75 Difference: minus $4.55 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.87, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 303.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 379.3, implying annual growth of -28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 131.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 277.0, implying annual growth of -27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS  METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $3.44

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Accumulate (2) -

According to Metcash's latest update, the company is confident of growth in the recently acquired Total Tools business. Corporate costs are expected to increase due to rising directors and officers insurance and long-term incentives.

Furthermore, the company expects cash conversion to be about 95–100% over the medium term.

Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate recommendation with a target of $3.85.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.41
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of -7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $27.08

Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Newcrest Mining has released an initial inferred resource estimate for the Havieron Project of 3.4m/oz gold and 160kt copper.

The company's 60% ownership will go to 70%, with total project expenditure of US$65m through a JV agreement.

Macquaries believes the first resource estimate at Havieron is an important step towards the project’s potential development.

Incorporating a development scenario for Havieron drives some material increases in Macquarie's EPS forecasts. Mining from the high-grade Crescent zone in FY24 and FY25 lifts FY24 EPS by 58% and more than doubles FY25 estimates.

The Neutral rating and $29 price target are unchanged.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.08 Difference: $1.92
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.51, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.85 cents and EPS of 154.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.84 cents and EPS of 82.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.6, implying annual growth of -9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

An initial inferred resource at Newcrest Mining's Havieron project has been announced for 3.4moz of gold and 160kt of copper. The resource assumes a mass mining sub-level caving method.

In Morgan Stanley's view, the maiden resource shows sufficient scale and grade to merit further exploration and could provide a material valuation uplift to the Telfer operation if production were to eventuate.

Overweight rating maintained with a target price of $33.40. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $27.08 Difference: $6.32
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.51, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.84 cents and EPS of 205.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.84 cents and EPS of 176.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.6, implying annual growth of -9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.40

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

Cit expects FY21 to be the low for the current earnings cycle with earnings (EBIT) falling to $77m before recovering to $173m in FY22 as thermal coal lifts to US$68/t.

Despite lower coal prices, cash generation should remain relatively strong, notes the broker.

Citi downgrades FY21 and FY22 EPS forecasts by -4% and -13%, respectively, on adjustments to oil/coal and foreign exchange forecasts.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $1.55 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.15
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.40, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 735.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 4800.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $12.27

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Gold is expected to be in a holding pattern in 2021 with global growth offset by a weaker US dollar and inflation.

Factoring the improvements at Pogo and exploration potential across sites more than priced-in, Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target falls to $11.70 from $12.65. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $12.27 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.34, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.1, implying annual growth of 96.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.0, implying annual growth of 27.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE  OROCOBRE LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $3.93

Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Orecobre is expected to benefit from the rise in lithium carbonate price forecasts over FY21-23. As a result, the target rises to $3.35 from $2.60.

Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 130.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $18.60

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

In copper, Morgan Stanley like OZ Minerals over Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), especially looking at the company’s growth pipeline and its ability to add value.

Overweight rating. Target rises to $20.50 from $17.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: $1.9
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.88, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.9, implying annual growth of 100.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates OZL as Buy (1) -

UBS has made some changes to its base metals forecasts including a lift in the copper price for 2021.

While UBS is positive on the commodity price outlook, strategic position, project execution and operating performance of OZ Minerals, the broker believes these factors are already priced-in with the share price of OZ Minerals up almost 80% year to date.

UBS downgrades Oz Minerals to Neutral from Buy with the target rising to $19 from $17.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: $0.4
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.88, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.9, implying annual growth of 100.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $115.39

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie commodity strategy team has recently upgraded iron ore price assumptions and believe there remains significant upside for iron ore miners at spot prices. 

However, the broker is cautious on miners with exposure to thermal coal given earnings downside risk at spot prices and note that there remains longer-term downside risk for alumina.

The broker has average earnings upgrades over the next three years of around 95% for Rio Tinto.

The Outperform rating and target of $118 are unchanged.

Target price is $118.00 Current Price is $115.39 Difference: $2.61
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.50, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 709.19 cents and EPS of 1118.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 940.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 607.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 891.22 cents and EPS of 1274.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1119.8, implying annual growth of 19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 757.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Rio Tinto has disclosed a maiden ore reserve and updated mineral resource at the Jadar lithium project (100% owned) in Serbia. A feasibility study is targeted to complete by end-2021 with project construction expected to take up to 4 years.

While the declaration of an ore reserve shows progress, Morgan Stanley thinks the key risk remains the commercialisation of pilot tests in handling jadarites.

Also, the broker assesses the impact on revenue growth will be limited, with Jadar representing circa 1% of the total revenue in 2025.

Equal-weight rating. Target rises to $113.50 from $100. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $113.50 Current Price is $115.39 Difference: minus $1.89 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.50, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 735.40 cents and EPS of 1083.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 940.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 607.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 827.14 cents and EPS of 1272.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1119.8, implying annual growth of 19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 757.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.67

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Gold is expected to be in a holding pattern in 2021 with global growth offset by a weaker US dollar and inflation. In such a scenario, diversification makes sense and the broker favours value stocks like Regis Resources.

Overweight rating. The target price decreases to $5.45 from $5.80. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $1.78
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 25.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.3, implying annual growth of 18.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $2.61

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Backed by a good outlook for met coal and base metals and catalysts in the form of SAEC divestment and Hermosa pre-feasibility study, South32 is Morgan Stanley's preferred stock.

Overweight rating retained with the target rising to $2.95 from $2.75. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.34
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 12.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.53 cents and EPS of 13.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 44.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SAR  SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.59

Morgan Stanley rates SAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

The broker expects gold to be in a holding pattern in 2021 with global growth offset by a weaker US dollar and inflation.

On Saracen Mineral Holdings, the broker sees risk to realisation of merger synergies and reduces its target price to $5.35 from $5.65.

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.76
If SAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 37.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.46

Morgan Stanley rates SBM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Gold is expected to be in a holding pattern in 2021 with global growth offset by a weaker US dollar and inflation. In such a scenario, diversification makes sense and the broker favours value stocks like St Barbara. 

Overweight rating is maintained with the target falling to $3.55 from $3.90. Industry view is Attractive. 

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $1.09
If SBM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 55.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $5.66

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

In copper. Morgan Stanley prefers Oz Minerals ((OZL)) over Sandfire Resources.

Overweight maintained. Industry view: Attractive. Target falls to $6.35 from $6.60.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $0.69
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 52.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of -5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SFR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS has made some changes to its base metals forecasts including a lift in the copper price for 2021.

Sandfire Resources has already re-rated strongly post the final investment decision at T3. UBS notes Sandfire's share price is trading in line with the broker's net present value with a balanced risk/reward.

Preferring OZ Minerals ((OZL)) in copper, UBS downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy with the target price rising to $6 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $0.34
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 52.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of -5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIG  SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $0.59

Macquarie rates SIG as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Macquarie initiates coverage on Sigma Healthcare with a Neutral rating and a price target of $0.64.

The broker highlights the company benefits from a strong exposure to the defensive high-touch part of the pharmacy market through its Amcal brand and its role as a large supplier to hospitals.

Other tailwinds include  the supplier contract with high-growth Chemist Warehouse and the forecast $100m of annualised cost savings by the end of FY21 (via Project Pivot).

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.05
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.10 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of 40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVW  SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $23.04

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Growth in the Australian infrastructure investment cycle is a key pillar supporting Seven Group Holdings' investment strategy which has underpinned its recent investments in both Boral ((BLD)) and Coates Hire.

UBS considers Coates Hire a key beneficiary of the recently announced budget policies seeking to accelerate investments in shovel-ready projects.

While year to date sales for Coates were down -7% in October, the broker expects recovering construction activity in Victoria and stimulus projects to support a recovery in revenue growth from the second half of FY21 onwards.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target price increased to $25.50 from $24.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: $2.46
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.48, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.2, implying annual growth of 277.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 157.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR  SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $1.01

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Morgan Stanley has updated Syrah Resources' forecasts. With the company's flagship mine still under maintenance and with significant capex needed for the 40ktpa AAM facility at Vidalia, the broker expects funding could become a key issue.

The broker downgrades its rating to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target rises to $0.60 from $0.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Syrah Resources will be raising $124m via a three-tier funding package with the proceeds to be used to progress its active anode material (AAM) facility in Louisiana to a final investment decision during the second half.

The balance will be used for providing additional liquidity to manage a restart decision at its Balama operations in Mozambique, suspended since early 2020 due to weak demand and pricing.

UBS expects Syrah will be able to restart the Balama operations in early 2021 to meet what is projected to be a strong rise in natural flake graphite demand.

The target price is increased to $1.30 from $1.20. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.29
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $9.09

UBS rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

US Nielsen four week sales to November 28th saw sales of Treasury Wine Estates up 9%.

UBS views the risk/reward for Treasury Wine as balanced given reallocation uncertainty, potential margin impacts and few near term catalysts. On the bright side, upside risks include better progress on China-Australia trade and increased confidence on wine re-allocation.

Neutral rating is retained with a target price of $9.20.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $0.11
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.43, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 35.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of -1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.60 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.59

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Citi raises the price target for Whitehaven Coal to $2 from $1.35, on coal price recovery and better cash flow management through capex sequencing.

The new cost out program aims to save $50m over next two years, highlights the broker.

The company has also developed a mine optimisation plan for Narrabri. In conjunction with the longwall, shallower panels 201/202 will be mined to provide access to high quality coal earlier.

Citi downgrades FY21 EPS  forecasts by -37% on foreign exchange and price assumption changes. Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.41
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

After a Whitehaven Coal investor day, Credit Suisse highlights mine sequencing at Narrabri has been adjusted to target less tonnes for better productivity and margin.

Also, with the drought and personnel changes behind it, more productive operations were detailed for Maules Creek, highlights the broker.

The Outperform and $1.95 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.36
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates WHC as Underperform (5) -

Whitehaven Coal has adjusted its mine scheduling at Narrabri, which drives Macquarie's 6% and 9% forecast earnings upgrades for FY21 and FY22, respectively.

While thermal coal prices have rebounded, there remains downside risk to earnings driven by weak semi-soft and pulverised coal for injection prices, notes the broker.

The Underperform rating and $1.30 price target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Led by an upside of 18%, Whitehaven Coal is the preferred pick when it comes to iron ore miners.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating with the target rising to $1.90 from $1.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.31
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 159.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Whitehaven Coal has revised its mine plan for Narrabri to enable earlier access to Southern zone which UBS expects will improve costs and productivity. The stage 3 expansion at Narrabri mine is expected to involve costs of $400m.

The company also indicated operations at Maules Creek mine are more consistent after issues like labour shortages, dust, fire and drought peaked in the December half of FY19.

UBS reiterates its Buy rating with the target price rising to $2.15 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.56
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $2.44

Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a global v-shaped recovery, bolstered by the recent covid vaccine discoveries. The broker expects inflation to return in late 2021, leading to a weaker USD and in turn supporting commodities.

Nickel is expected to be a beneficiary of the trends and Morgan Stanley prefers pure-play stocks like Western Areas over IGO ((IGO)). 

Target rises to $2.70 from $2.55. Overweight rating.  Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.26
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 65.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ADI APN Industria Reit $2.96 Macquarie N/A 2.64 -100.00%
AHY Asaleo Care $1.33 Credit Suisse 1.50 1.28 17.19%
API Aus Pharmaceutical Ind $1.30 Macquarie 1.47 1.10 33.64%
APX Appen $25.50 Credit Suisse 26.00 30.00 -13.33%
Ord Minnett 30.00 35.00 -14.29%
AWC Alumina $1.91 Morgan Stanley 2.15 2.05 4.88%
UBS 2.10 2.00 5.00%
BBN Baby Bunting $4.50 Citi 5.48 4.75 15.37%
BHP BHP $42.97 Morgan Stanley 46.15 40.40 14.23%
UBS 44.50 39.25 13.38%
CIM Cimic Group $25.88 UBS 27.50 23.00 19.57%
CRN Coronado Global Resources $1.16 UBS 1.35 1.30 3.85%
DOW Downer Edi $5.24 UBS 6.30 5.00 26.00%
DRR DETERRA ROYALTIES $4.99 UBS 5.00 4.80 4.17%
EVN Evolution Mining $4.89 Morgan Stanley 4.60 5.00 -8.00%
UBS 4.50 4.90 -8.16%
FMG Fortescue $23.05 Morgan Stanley 17.45 14.10 23.76%
UBS 22.00 19.00 15.79%
GXY Galaxy Resources $2.09 Morgan Stanley 1.35 1.25 8.00%
UBS 2.60 2.50 4.00%
IGO IGO Co $6.32 Morgan Stanley 5.15 5.05 1.98%
UBS 5.85 5.45 7.34%
ILU Iluka Resources $5.94 Morgan Stanley 5.20 5.00 4.00%
UBS 5.90 5.50 7.27%
LYC Lynas Corp $3.82 UBS 4.30 4.05 6.17%
MIN Mineral Resources $35.22 Morgan Stanley 30.20 23.50 28.51%
NCM Newcrest Mining $27.10 Morgan Stanley 33.40 32.90 1.52%
UBS 35.00 38.00 -7.89%
NHC New Hope Corp $1.47 Citi 1.55 1.30 19.23%
NST Northern Star $12.44 Morgan Stanley 11.70 12.65 -7.51%
UBS 13.00 14.20 -8.45%
OGC Oceanagold $2.39 UBS 2.60 3.40 -23.53%
ORE Orocobre $4.04 Morgan Stanley 3.35 2.60 28.85%
UBS 4.90 4.50 8.89%
OZL Oz Minerals $18.66 Morgan Stanley 20.50 17.10 19.88%
UBS 19.00 17.00 11.76%
RIO Rio Tinto $116.19 Morgan Stanley 113.50 100.00 13.50%
UBS 115.00 104.50 10.05%
RRL Regis Resources $3.72 Morgan Stanley 5.45 6.30 -13.49%
UBS 5.15 5.70 -9.65%
S32 South32 $2.56 Morgan Stanley 2.95 2.75 7.27%
SAR Saracen Mineral $4.68 Morgan Stanley 5.35 5.65 -5.31%
UBS 6.10 6.75 -9.63%
SBM St Barbara $2.50 Morgan Stanley 3.55 3.90 -8.97%
SFR Sandfire $5.56 Morgan Stanley 6.35 6.60 -3.79%
UBS 6.00 5.50 9.09%
SIG Sigma Healthcare $0.61 Macquarie 0.64 1.00 -36.00%
SSR SSR MINING $24.77 UBS 30.00 32.00 -6.25%
SVW Seven Group $23.37 UBS 25.50 24.00 6.25%
SYR Syrah Resources $0.91 Morgan Stanley 0.60 0.45 33.33%
UBS 1.30 1.15 13.04%
WHC Whitehaven Coal $1.69 Citi 2.00 1.35 48.15%
Morgan Stanley 1.90 1.30 46.15%
UBS 2.15 2.00 7.50%
WSA Western Areas $2.56 Morgan Stanley 2.70 2.55 5.88%
UBS 2.50 2.12 17.92%
Summaries
ADI APN Industria Reit No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.95
AHY Asaleo Care Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.23
API Aus Pharmaceutical Ind Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.29
APX Appen Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $26.20
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $26.20
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $26.20
AWC Alumina Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.91
BBN Baby Bunting Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.41
BHP BHP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $42.48
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $42.48
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $42.48
CIM Cimic Group Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $26.83
DOW Downer Edi Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.35
DRR DETERRA ROYALTIES Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.97
EBO EBOS Group Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $23.95
EVN Evolution Mining Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.89
FMG Fortescue Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $22.51
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $22.51
GXY Galaxy Resources Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.01
IGO IGO Co Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.09
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.09
ILU Iluka Resources Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.84
LYC Lynas Corp Downgrade to Lighten from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.01
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.01
MHJ Michael Hill Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.64
MIN Mineral Resources Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $34.75
MTS Metcash Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.44
NCM Newcrest Mining Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $27.08
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $27.08
NHC New Hope Corp Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.40
NST Northern Star Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.27
ORE Orocobre Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.93
OZL Oz Minerals Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.60
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $18.60
RIO Rio Tinto Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $115.39
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $115.39
RRL Regis Resources Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.67
S32 South32 Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.61
SAR Saracen Mineral Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.59
SBM St Barbara Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.46
SFR Sandfire Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.66
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.66
SIG Sigma Healthcare Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.59
SVW Seven Group Buy - UBS Overnight Price $23.04
SYR Syrah Resources Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.01
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $1.01
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $9.09
WHC Whitehaven Coal Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.59
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.59
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.59
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.59
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $1.59
WSA Western Areas Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.44
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

27

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

16

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

6

Friday 11 December 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.