Australian Broker Call
August 11, 2017
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Last Updated: 01:35 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AVN - | AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
| MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Citi rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts saw how AGL slightly beat market expectations and operationally, it seems, there's little not to like, but it is the uncertain political environment that is keeping the rating on Neutral.
Citi expects governmental intervention in electricity markets similar to what has been playing out for the East Coast gas markets. In a nutshell, the industry is afforded the opportunity to create a solution or face the regulatory stick, explains Citi, but what is the stick?
Target $25.52, down from $25.91 on slightly lowered estimates. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $25.52 Current Price is $24.52 Difference: $1
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 152.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.8, implying annual growth of 91.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 173.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
FY17 earnings were in line and Credit Suisse was surprised by the capital expenditure outlook which included a $175m increase in sustaining expenditure.
Together with the focus on growth and reduced priority for capital returns, the broker believes the company is no longer the high cash flow vehicle it was thought to be.
Target is reduced to $23.25 for $26.50. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $23.25 Current Price is $24.52 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 154.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.8, implying annual growth of 91.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 183.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AGL as Buy (1) -
The company reported a solid FY17 net profit, ahead of Deutsche Bank's estimates. The company has stated growth is now its priority ahead of further capital management.
Deutsche Bank forecasts rising wholesale electricity prices will drive a 23% compound growth in net profit to FY19.
With wholesale electricity price leverage and valuation upside support the broker retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $28.60 from $27.80.
Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $24.52 Difference: $4.08
If AGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.8, implying annual growth of 91.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were in line with Macquarie's estimates. The company has broken with tradition and provided net profit guidance of $940-1040m. Macquarie observes a major driver of the guidance is the strong operating environment and consumer re-pricing.
This leverage will more than offset reduced REC income and falling customer retail operating earnings.
Macquarie increases the target to $25.40 from $24.50 and maintains a Neutral rating. The broker notes regulatory threats from government exist and the commodity price momentum from electricity has faded.
Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $24.52 Difference: $0.88
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 154.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.8, implying annual growth of 91.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 180.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley observes FY18 guidance is aligned with its expectations. The broker envisages modest upside to consensus expectations and believes investors will continue to value the constructive earnings and free cash flow outlook, subject to policy risk.
The broker believes the company will continue to take a price leading position in retail electricity.
Target is reduced to $25.10 from $25.94. Equal-weight. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $24.52 Difference: $0.58
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 151.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.8, implying annual growth of 91.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 177.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -
FY17 net profit was ahead of expectations and above the top end of guidance. Ord Minnett continues to envisage upward movement on forward prices as summer peak loads near.
Nevertheless, management commentary on a number of growth projects has muddied the investment view and brought on uncertainty and risk in the broker's opinion.
The broker also questions the market's lack of concern about a potential entry into offshore markets. These risks could take time to play out and, as the market digests a strong result, the broker expects a positive stock price reaction.
Accumulate retained. Target is lifted to $28.30 from $28.20.
Target price is $28.30 Current Price is $24.52 Difference: $3.78
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 157.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.8, implying annual growth of 91.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 173.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -
FY17 results were in line with UBS. The broker believes the market is overly concerned about the company's interest in expanding offshore and the lower probability of further buy-backs as a result of investment activity.
UBS believes the market is failing to appreciate the long-term cash flow implications and FY18 guidance, which was above consensus. Higher gas and electricity prices are set to provide an earnings tailwind over the next 2-3 years.
Buy retained. Target is reduced to $29.20 from $29.50.
Target price is $29.20 Current Price is $24.52 Difference: $4.68
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.48, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 154.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.8, implying annual growth of 91.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 175.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ALL as Neutral (3) -
The company will acquire Plarium, a digital game maker. The transaction value is around $640m plus per-out and Credit Suisse believes, given the company's market capitalisation, a deal this size into an adjacent industry is appropriate.
The broker believes the acquisition demonstrates the company's potential to do accretive deals and this is a platform onto which acquisitions may be bolted. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $22.60 from $23.50.
Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $21.26 Difference: $1.34
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.73, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 87.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 102.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.6, implying annual growth of 50.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank considers the acquisition of social gaming company, Plarium, to be a minor positive as it expands the company's presence in a larger social gaming market as well as the higher-growth digital segment.
The broker estimates the acquisition will be accretive by 4% in FY18. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $28.50 from $27.40.
Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $21.26 Difference: $7.24
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.73, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.6, implying annual growth of 50.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ALL as Buy (1) -
The company will acquire social gaming business Plarium for US$500m. Ord Minnett observes the company has continued to deliver on its growth initiatives by developing titles for both land-based and digital platforms.
Given the strong execution and scarcity of earnings growth in the market, the broker believes the risk/reward remains attractive. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $24.60 from $23.00.
Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $21.26 Difference: $3.34
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.73, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of minus 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.6, implying annual growth of 50.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -
The company has increased exposure to digital gaming through the acquisition of Plarium. UBS observes, importantly, the company has been able to diversify into a new business that is largely unrelated to its core businesses.
Market growth in Plarium's mobile gaming segment should remain above 10% over the medium term, in the broker's opinion. Buy rating retained. Target is $23.20.
Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $21.26 Difference: $1.94
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.73, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.6, implying annual growth of 50.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALU as Buy (1) -
Ahead of the FY17 results in August 28, Deutsche Bank observes solid economic conditions in key markets, strong internal momentum and minimal FX impacts. Top-line guidance is considered achievable.
The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $9.10 from $8.80.
Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.55 Difference: $0.55
If ALU meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.45 cents and EPS of 29.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.98 cents and EPS of 34.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 19.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
AMP is refusing to commit to returning the fresh $500m capital raised through a reinsurance agreement with General Re to shareholders. Instead, management believes it has growth opportunities at hand.
Citi analysts have their doubts, pointing at past mishaps and suggesting the share price will remain under pressure as there remains pressure on the EPS outlook.
Earnings estimates have been cut by -1-2%. Target price remains $5.60. Neutral rating retained. Citi analysts argue there's a whole lot in cost savings yet to filter through and this should somewhat support the earnings outlook.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.33
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.50 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
First half underlying profit was slightly below Credit Suisse estimates. The main disappointment is the decision to pause the buy-back. The company had only completed $200m of the original $500m.
The broker has highlighted previously that AMP needs to invest to grow but there have been continued expectations of a large cost saving and capital return.
Underlying FY17 profit estimates are reduced by -2.6%. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $5.60 from $5.50.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.33
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
First half results were slightly better than Macquarie forecast. The company has paused its existing buy-back and scheduled additional commentary on new capital returns for the FY17 result in February, at the earliest.
Macquarie expects this action may remove some buyers from the market and provide a further catalyst for the already-strong short interest position.
The broker remains cautious ahead of the news flow. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $5.40 from $5.35.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.13
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -
First half results were in line with estimates. Morgan Stanley is surprised by the capital intensity in growth aspirations and the expected capital return from successfully executing on another reinsurance deal.
The company also surprised broker by putting the remainder of its buy-back on hold. Equal-weight retained. Target is $5.60. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.33
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -
First half results were just ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker notes the shares underperformed after the result on concerns regarding a reduced surplus position and questions about how the company would deploy capital.
There is upside to the broker's forecasts if AMP can actually deploy surplus capital at scale. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and lowers the target to $5.80 from $6.05.
Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.53
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
First half results were slightly ahead of UBS estimates. The broker observes the drivers of the core wealth management business were soft.
Neutral rating and $5.30 target retained.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.03
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Outperform (1) -
FY17 results were in line with Credit Suisse. The balance sheet continues to improve and impresses the broker, given the company paid down debt as well as outlaid cash as part of the Austrian Airlines transaction.
Earnings momentum is strong and the broker considers the stock cheap. Outperform rating retained. Target price moves to $1.30 from $1.15.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.17
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 14.76 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.28 cents and EPS of 16.83 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AVN as Outperform (1) -
FY17 net operating income was in line with Macquarie's forecasts. The broker considers there to be further valuation upside from this point and notes increasing electricity costs are less of an issue for the company because of its open-air retail centres.
The broker notes a couple of assets are challenged and sales are slowing but, while these are of concern, they are small and rent guarantees are in place.
Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $2.40 target.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.11
If AVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -52.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AVN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Aventus' result was in line with expectation and FY18 guidance has been reiterated. Attention now turns to bedding down recent acquisitions, lease expiries and the roll-out of the company's development pipeline, Morgans suggests.
Aventus offers exposure to large format retail and the broker believes the fund is well placed to weather the challenge from online through organic growth and further opportunities to consolidate a fragmented market. A total shareholder return forecast of 15% leads Morgans to upgrade to Add.
Target rises to $2.46 from $2.45.
Target price is $2.46 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.17
If AVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -52.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AVN as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were in line with UBS and suggest the company is continuing to execute on a well-defined strategy.
UBS has concerns, heading into 2018, about gearing at 39% and the cost of debt at 3.3% given the business is exposed to housing as the cycle passes its peak.
Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.40 from $2.52.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.11
If AVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -52.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CAJ as Outperform (1) -
FY17 operating earnings beat guidance. Credit Suisse believes, with strong industry trends and a consolidating sector that the company is well-positioned and the risks to the outlook are skewed to the upside.
Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $0.34 from $0.30.
Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.04
If CAJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.95 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley calculates the FY17 growth rate in earnings per share of 7.6% does not justify current value.
The broker suggests the stock needs to return to double-digit growth in earnings per share and believes it can. In this, international operations are increasingly important.
Overweight. Industry view is: Attractive. Price target is raised to $14.00 from $12.50.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $0.6
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.37, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 43.10 cents and EPS of 54.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of 20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 46.90 cents and EPS of 59.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.5, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were ahead of expectations. UBS has been concerned for some time about the increased reliance on mortgage brokers, which had risen to 50% of group mortgage originations in the second half of FY16, but over the last year this has fallen sharply to 43%.
UBS believes the money laundering allegations are likely to be a continuing drag on the bank's reputation and provide unwanted distractions for management, leading to elevated costs. It also increases the likelihood of a Royal Commission.
The broker retains a Neutral rating and $83 target.
Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $81.05 Difference: $1.95
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $80.60, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 573.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.1, implying annual growth of -0.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 569.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 580.5, implying annual growth of 0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CTX as Outperform (1) -
The ACCC statement of issues on the BP/Woolworths ((WOW)) transaction has raised several concerns such as removal of the strong price discounting in retail fuel markets and more effective coordination during price increasing phases of the petrol price cycle.
Credit Suisse continues to believe that any major deal will lessen competition.The broker stands back from the issues and awaits a final decision which is expected to be October 26.
Outperform rating and $39.70 target maintained.
Target price is $39.70 Current Price is $31.52 Difference: $8.18
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 213.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.1, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Lighten (4) -
The ACCC has released a statement of issues on the proposed acquisition by BP of the petrol business of Woolworths ((WOW)). The view is that the acquisition may substantially lessen competition.
Overall, Ord Minnett is confident the transaction will go ahead but with significant divestments, although this is not without risk. Lighten rating retained. Target is $28.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $31.52 Difference: minus $3.52 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 196.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 218.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.1, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CTX as Buy (1) -
The ACCC has released a statement of issues regarding the proposed acquisition of the Woolworths ((WOW)) fuel division by BP.
UBS observes it concludes the acquisition may substantially lessen competition in retail fuel markets and raises questions around the transaction, primarily whether BP and Woolworths will proceed as planned.
UBS has a base case assumption for Caltex that is unchanged and continues to reflect the fact the acquisition proceeds and the Woolworths supply contract is terminated.
If the transaction does not proceed the broker estimates earnings per share could increase by approximately 10% for 2018 and 14% for 2019. Buy and a $33 target.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.52 Difference: $1.48
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.12, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 218.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.1, implying annual growth of -3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates GNC as Neutral (3) -
Harvest expectations are declining on the back of dry conditions that are extending further across the east coast of Australia. Credit Suisse downgrades grain production forecasts for the 2017/18 crop.
The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $9.33 from $9.48.
Target price is $9.33 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: $0.65
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.23 cents and EPS of 66.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.3, implying annual growth of 405.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.99 cents and EPS of 54.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.9, implying annual growth of -15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie reviews the potential implications of the reforms proposed for US immigration. The likelihood of the proposed legislation passing in its current form appears low.
Nonetheless, the broker envisages a potential opportunity for IDP Education. The company is well-positioned to deliver double-digit growth in earnings per share in FY18, the broker observes.
Outperform retained. Target rises to $5.13 from $4.87.
Target price is $5.13 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates IPL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Credit Suisse believes seasonal challenges and choppy fertiliser markets will persist in the near term. The company, with the announcement of Jeanne Johns as the new CEO, appears to the broker to have confirmed a focus on extracting the most from the existing asset base.
Given the share price drop, and on the basis of no significant deterioration in fertiliser markets and currency, Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is reduced to $3.29 to $3.37.
Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 16.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 143.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 16.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 22.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results missed Credit Suisse estimates. Having re-based earnings for a higher cost base, the broker now believes the risk is skewed to the upside through higher flows, should the company be able to capitalise on increased marketing expenditure.
Nevertheless, the broker envisages limited opportunity for multiple expansion. Neutral and $27 target retained.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $26.87 Difference: $0.13
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 140.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 161.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.0, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results signalled to Macquarie the company continues to deliver against key fund manager metrics.
The company has launched a closed-end global equity trust to be listed on ASX, targeting existing clients, retail broker clients as well as a general public offer. Macquarie assumes $1bn in flows in forecasts.
The broker considers the stock fully valued and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $25.23 from $26.37.
Target price is $25.23 Current Price is $26.87 Difference: minus $1.64 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 81.90 cents and EPS of 113.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 89.30 cents and EPS of 123.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.0, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Equal-weight (3) -
FY17 results address some of Morgan Stanley's concerns about growth. The broker targets a $1bn capital raising in the first half for the closed-end fund, which is acquiring an earnings stream on an undemanding six times multiple.
However, investment in growth is raising costs and there is evidence of fee pressure emerging. Equal-weight retained. Target is reduced to $25.00 from $26.50. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $26.87 Difference: minus $1.87 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 97.50 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 145.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.0, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MFG as Hold (3) -
Magellan's result was in line with consensus and funds under management grew 11% year on year. The fund manager is now raising funds for a new closed-end, ASX-listed trust which the broker believes could prove very popular. It will nevertheless require a jump in marketing spend.
With the stock trading close to valuation the broker retains Hold, suggesting broad market volatility will provide a more attractive entry point. Target rises to $28.22 from $27.95.
Target price is $28.22 Current Price is $26.87 Difference: $1.35
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.0, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MFG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Ord Minnett observes the business is stepping up its retail game and marketing expenditure is set to soar. It is also sponsoring the Australian test cricket series.
The company is launching what will likely be the largest closed-end investment vehicle ever raised in Australia. The broker observes the efforts are aimed at the under penetrated self-advised market.
The company is increasing its public profile in an effort to educate retail investors about the need to allocate toward global equities and that Magellan should be the go-to choice in this area.
Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold, as the market appears to be treating increased expenditure on marketing as a negative rather than as an investment to strengthen the retail business. Target is raised to $29.18 from $28.13.
Target price is $29.18 Current Price is $26.87 Difference: $2.31
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 98.70 cents and EPS of 70.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 118.60 cents and EPS of 157.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.0, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were weaker than UBS expected although the key funds management pre-tax profit was in line.
The broker observes one-off "material" costs from the new fund to be listed on the ASX have not been quantified and it is unclear whether the company will look through this for the FY18 dividend.
Neutral rating and $28.05 target retained.
Target price is $28.05 Current Price is $26.87 Difference: $1.18
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.11, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 132.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 103.00 cents and EPS of 143.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.0, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie is impressed with the ramp up at Mount Marion and expects further improvements are still to come. Wodgina is also benefiting from Mount Marion.
The broker believes the company is now well-placed to develop a spodumene plant in a much shorter time frame and for lower capital costs compared to Mount Marion.
Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $16.30 from $16.00.
Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $13.88 Difference: $2.42
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.37, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 55.80 cents and EPS of 121.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 67.50 cents and EPS of 134.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.7, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -
In an initial response to today's trading update, UBS analysts comment it appears operationally NAB is tracking in-line with expectations, but the composition is of lower quality.
The analysts are in particular dismayed by the fact that costs continue to creep higher. Mortgage repricing is likely to be fully offset by the impact of the Bank Levy, so no more positive jaws in FY18, predict the analysts.
UBS highlights Pre-Provision Profit has been stuck in a range of $2.5-$2.6bn per quarter since 2012; movements in Markets & Treasury have been the key variant and this is not expected to change anytime soon. Sell rating retained. Price target drops to $27.50 from $30.
Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $30.48 Difference: minus $2.98 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.36, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.3, implying annual growth of -0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.1, implying annual growth of 0.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NCK as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts note the shares sold off on what appeared a subdued outlook statement. They suggest the "challenging outlook" provided by company management could well prove conservative.
The analysts have slightly lifted expectations. The price target nevertheless dropped by -1% to $6.40. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $0.3
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -
FY17 results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker's earnings outlook now factors in the reversion to long-run margins and more moderate earnings growth, skewed to store expansion.
The broker notes trading conditions are uncertain and management has stated it is difficult to provide profit guidance for FY18, given an expected slowdown in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced -14% to $6.67.
Target price is $6.67 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $0.57
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.60 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.60 cents and EPS of 53.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NUF as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse is downgrading estimates on poor seasonal conditions and Australian dollar strength. A lack of news suggests that acquisitions may be a diminishing probability.
The omega-3 canola seed remains a medium-term opportunity which is yet unlikely to be reflected in market expectations, the broker observes. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $9.26 from $10.10.
Target price is $9.26 Current Price is $8.92 Difference: $0.34
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 45.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 677.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 58.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.4, implying annual growth of 21.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
Citi saw Orora deliver a solid financial performance, though the relief rally that ensued has more to do with management confirming that growth initiatives should more than offset rising cost headwinds, in the analysts' opinion.
In addition, acquisitions remain firmly on management's radar, the analysts add. Citi analysts believe Orora's growth pace is destined to slow, thus acquisitions will gain in importance.
Elsewhere, the analysts describe Orora as "a well run cash machine", plus revenues from North America have now outgrown Australian revenues in a trend that is expected to continue.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results were stronger than expected and Credit Suisse upgrades operating earnings estimates by 1-2%.
The broker has become more optimistic about the operating environment, notwithstanding higher costs and new capacity being commissioned in FY18.
Neutral retained. Target rises to $3.30 from $3.15.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.32
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 16.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 17.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORA as Hold (3) -
FY17 results were above Deutsche Bank's estimates. The broker believes the market will begin to focus on the impact of higher electricity costs in FY18.
The company has guided to underlying earnings growth in FY18 in constant currency terms. Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating as the stock is trading at a 3% premium to valuation. Target is raised to $2.90 from $2.85.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -
The company's FY17 result beat Macquarie's estimates amid better-than-expected cash flow and net debt.
The broker believes the ongoing cost reductions and efficiency should enable the company to weather the concerns about cost headwinds in Australia and grow its Australasian earnings.
Meanwhile, the US business continues to impress and there are options for expansion on the balance sheet. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $3.23 target.
Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.25
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Overweight (1) -
FY17 underlying earnings growth beat Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker was encouraged by the expansion in margins in both North America and Australasia. The broker continues to expect upside risk to earnings in the medium term.
Overweight rating retained. Target is $3.27. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $3.27 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.29
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -
Orora's result was broadly in line with the broker but ahead of consensus. North America posted a strong performance while Australasia benefitted from self-help programs, the broker notes, which offset cost headwinds.
With debt well below management's target range, the company has plenty of capacity to pursue growth options, the broker suggests. Another solid result provides increased confidence in Orora's ability to execute on its growth strategy.
Add retained, target rises to $3.22 from $3.09.
Target price is $3.22 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.24
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ORA as Accumulate (2) -
FY17 results were ahead of Ord Minnett forecasts and demonstrate the company's ability to combat rising input costs and deliver margin improvement. In addition, the broker envisages considerable upside to forecasts if the company can flex its healthy balance sheet.
Accumulate retained. Target rises to $3.30 from $3.25.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.32
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ORA as Buy (1) -
FY17 earnings were ahead of UBS estimates. The broker believes this was a credible result as key Australasian operating earnings were up 7% despite ongoing headwinds from gas and electricity costs across its fibre and glass manufacturing operations.
UBS raises FY18-19 net profit forecast by 1-2%. Buy rating and $3.20 target retained.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.22
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ORG as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts note the company has pre-announced further impairments totaling $1.2bn post-tax in next week's FY17 release. This, point out the analysts, takes the total in impairments for FY17 to $3.1bn.
The new information has been incorporated into Citi's modeling, but the analysts don't see it as a major event that changes their view or outlook for Origin Energy.
All in all, growing cash flows should continue to assist management in further de-gearing the balance sheet. The shares are considered fairly priced assuming a US$55/bbl long-term oil price. Target price loses -1c to $7.43. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $7.43 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $0.4
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 189.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SGP as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse expects residential business to be the main driver of outperformance when the stock reports FY17 results on August 16.
The broker retains several concerns regarding the medium-term outlook, notwithstanding a solid earnings trajectory. This prevents a more constructive view on the stock at this juncture. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $4.56 from $4.73.
Target price is $4.56 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.28
If SGP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates VAH as Sell (5) -
A strong improvement in the final quarter saw the airline release a much lower than expected loss for FY17. Citi analysts comment at the EBIT level all four group segments exited FY17 at improved levels.
Cost savings improved, as did cash flows and the balance sheet. Citi has updated forecasts, which has pushed up the valuation/target to 16c from 14c. The Sell rating, however, remains in place with the analysts explaining they see greater upside to Qantas ((QAN)) relative over the next twelve months.
Also, the positive turnaround at Virgin Australia is seen as a good indicator for what is likely happening at Qantas; the domestic duopoly is expected to remain "rational".
Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If VAH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.19, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -22.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates VAH as Neutral (3) -
FY17 results suggest the positive trend is likely to continue. Nevertheless, Credit Suisse believes the company is likely to struggle to compete against Qantas ((QAN)) in taking costs out of its business.
Neutral rating retained. Target is raised to $0.20 from $0.18.
Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.015
If VAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.19, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -22.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates VAH as Lighten (4) -
FY17 results revealed a notable turnaround and Ord Minnett suggests the share price reaction signals investors were pleased.
Nevertheless, the broker believes the FY18 outlook is foggy and recommends investors remain grounded.
Lighten retained. Target is $0.15.
Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If VAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.19, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -22.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates VAH as Sell (5) -
FY17 results revealed a turnaround in momentum in the June quarter, which drove a better-than-expected pre-tax loss of-$4m versus UBS forecasts of -$19m.
The broker suspects ongoing industry discipline on capacity, along with a low base for demand, should extend momentum into FY18.
Sell rating retained. Target is raised to $0.18 from $0.17.
Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If VAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.19, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -22.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WFD as Buy (1) -
As a result of volatile US retail second quarter reporting, UBS makes a closer analysis of the company's earnings and valuation. Provided the company maintains its guidance, the broker expects confidence will return to the stock.
Westfield reports its half-year result in August 16. The company has not given specific net operating income guidance but expectations are for it to be roughly in line with 2016.
Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.20 from $9.80.
Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: $1.45
If WFD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 44.91 cents and EPS of 44.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of -46.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.91 cents and EPS of 48.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of 7.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WOW as Underperform (5) -
The ACCC's preliminary assessment is a setback to the company's ambitions to divest its fuel retail assets, in Credit Suisse's view. No other option is likely to be as financially or strategically attractive as the sale to BP.
While the ACCC has raised concerns that the transaction may remove a strong price discounter from the market, the broker believes the transaction is still likely, although the probability of success in its current form has fallen.
Target price is $24.29 Current Price is $26.75 Difference: minus $2.46 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.49, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 72.37 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 86.33 cents and EPS of 126.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.1, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WOW as Buy (1) -
The ACCC has released a statement of issues relating to the planned divestment of the petrol business to BP. Deutsche Bank finds the likely outcome of the proposed divestments difficult to predict, as the ACCC appears more concerned about the issue than previously believed.
The concerns centre on the removal of strong discounting in retail fuel markets while the removal of a player may make coordination easier during the price increase cycle, potentially leading to earlier and larger price increases.
The broker suspects, if the merger does not proceed, it will lead to an upgrade to Woolworths earnings, given the market has taken fuel earnings as a discontinued operation.
This would still be a negative, in the broker's opinion, as divestment is strategically favourable and would bolster the balance sheet. Buy rating retained. Target is $29.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.75 Difference: $2.25
If WOW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.49, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 126.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.1, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WOW as Underperform (5) -
The ACCC has released a statement of issues on BP's proposed acquisition of the company's petrol assets. A number of concerns have been raised.
Macquarie's first impression was the statement is benign but, on analysis, it is becoming apparent that the ACCC may yet demand concessions around site divestment, and possibly more structural changes to the transaction.
Underperform rating and $26.43 target retained
Target price is $26.43 Current Price is $26.75 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.49, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 70.60 cents and EPS of 109.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 79.10 cents and EPS of 122.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.1, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $24.52 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $24.52 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $24.52 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $24.52 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $24.52 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.52 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $24.52 | ||
| ALL - | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $21.26 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $21.26 | ||
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $21.26 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $21.26 | ||
| ALU - | ALTIUM | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $8.55 |
| AMP - | AMP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.27 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
| AQZ - | ALLIANCE AVIATION | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.13 |
| AVN - | AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.29 |
| Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.29 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.29 | ||
| CAJ - | CAPITOL HEALTH | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.30 |
| CAR - | CARSALES.COM | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $13.40 |
| CBA - | COMMBANK | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $81.05 |
| CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $31.52 |
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $31.52 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $31.52 | ||
| GNC - | GRAINCORP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.68 |
| IEL - | IDP EDUCATION | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.24 |
| IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.36 |
| MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $26.87 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $26.87 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $26.87 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $26.87 | ||
| Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $26.87 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $26.87 | ||
| MIN - | MINERAL RESOURCES | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $13.88 |
| NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $30.48 |
| NCK - | NICK SCALI | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.10 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.10 | ||
| NUF - | NUFARM | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.92 |
| ORA - | ORORA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.98 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.98 | ||
| ORG - | ORIGIN ENERGY | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.03 |
| SGP - | STOCKLAND | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.28 |
| VAH - | VIRGIN AUSTRALIA | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $0.19 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.19 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.19 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $0.19 | ||
| WFD - | WESTFIELD CORP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.75 |
| WOW - | WOOLWORTHS | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $26.75 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $26.75 | ||
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $26.75 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 23 |
| 2. Accumulate | 3 |
| 3. Hold | 27 |
| 4. Reduce | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 5 |
Friday 11 August 2017
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