Australian Broker Call

March 10, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 10:18 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CSR - CSR Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

Overnight Price: $17.20

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

A doubling of the share price in the last two years has prompted increased interest in the stock and UBS believes there is still potential for it to go higher.

Entry into adjacent areas opens up another 26% of the US market and a 5% share of this could result in a 5% upgrade to estimates, the broker calculates. Expansions at the Oklahoma casinos are already occurring.

Buy rating retained. Target lifts to $18.91 from $17.94.

Target price is $18.91 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $1.71
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.04, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.6, implying annual growth of 12.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

Banks

Overnight Price: $31.63

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Australia is overbuilding major cities with too many high density dwellings, otherwise known as apartments.

In the face of this pending glut, Citi analysts have conducted follow-up research and concluded property development loan loss risks remains, but it appears no major bad news should be expected for the major banks in Australia.

In Citi's view, it takes sizable settlement failures to have a meaningful impact plus major banks have already significantly reduced the availability of funding to the sector. No changes made.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $31.63 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.48, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 233.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.2, implying annual growth of 16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.4, implying annual growth of 0.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA  COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks

Overnight Price: $83.53

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Australia is overbuilding major cities with too many high density dwellings, otherwise known as apartments.

In the face of this pending glut, Citi analysts have conducted follow-up research and concluded property development loan loss risks remains, but it appears no major bad news should be expected for the major banks in Australia.

In Citi's view, it takes sizable settlement failures to have a meaningful impact plus major banks have already significantly reduced the availability of funding to the sector. No changes made.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $83.53 Difference: minus $8.53 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $80.78, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 421.00 cents and EPS of 541.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 555.8, implying annual growth of 0.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 423.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 421.00 cents and EPS of 546.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 569.3, implying annual growth of 2.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 429.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $4.36

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Aluminium prices have continued to rise, up 10% since the start of the year. Ord Minnett still expects a slight surplus in 2017, but notes increased expectations of environment-led curtailment in China keeps the market sentiment constructive.

The broker raises quarterly aluminium price forecast by 5-25% over 2017-20. Incorporating the revised estimates into calculations leads to an upgrade to Hold from Lighten. Target rises to $4.15 from $3.80.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 32.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of -1.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $32.87

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Australia is overbuilding major cities with too many high density dwellings, otherwise known as apartments.

In the face of this pending glut, Citi analysts have conducted follow-up research and concluded property development loan loss risks remains, but it appears no major bad news should be expected for the major banks in Australia.

In Citi's view, it takes sizable settlement failures to have a meaningful impact plus major banks have already significantly reduced the availability of funding to the sector. No changes made.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $32.87 Difference: minus $2.37 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 232.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.4, implying annual growth of -3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 178.00 cents and EPS of 232.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI  ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

Overnight Price: $18.14

UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has issued a tactical trading idea to its clientele, warning the share price is more than likely to weaken over the next 60 days.

This would be in line with China's policy reversal to no longer impose the 276-day coal production rule, which is likely to translate into downward pressure on seaborne thermal coal prices.

Morgan Stanley believes stronger thermal and metallurgical coal prices, and expected volume growth in these commodities, have been a significant driver for Orica's share price over the last six months.

Underweight. Target $11.03. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $11.03 Current Price is $18.14 Difference: minus $7.11 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.45, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.9, implying annual growth of -1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.3, implying annual growth of 6.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH  TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming

Overnight Price: $4.47

UPDATED

Citi rates TAH as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts report the ACCC’s initial response "looks reasonable", meaning the authority's key concerns should be manageable for the proposed merger partners. A final decision will be communicated on 4th May.

Thus far there have been no major surprises for Citi. No changes have been made.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Post the ACCC announcement, analysts at Credit Suisse continue to believe the ACCC will approve the proposed TAH/TTS merger.

The ACCC targets 4 May for a final decision. Meanwhile, the analysts note the ACCC has raised five 'amber light' concerns; but none seem insurmountable, in their view. No changes made.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.53
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 19.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 22.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates TAH as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank considers the  Australian Competition and Consumer Commissions statement of issues in relation to the merger with Tatts ((TTS)) is positive for both companies.

The concerns that are raised are relatively benign and addressable, in the broker's opinion.  Tabcorp has agreed to divest the Odyssey gaming machine monitoring business in Queensland.

A final decision is scheduled for May 4. Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and $5.00 target.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.53
If TAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates TAH as Lighten (4) -

Media and vision rights were the main issue for the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission regarding the proposed merger.

Other main discussion points that are key to the merger winning final approval include greater liquidity in the tote pool and license renewal and competitive tender processes.

Ord Minnett believes declining wagering yields from competitive pressures are unlikely to abate and significant risk exists regarding Sun Bets and integration of the UBET brand. The broker retains a Lighten rating and $4.20 target.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TTS  TATTS GROUP LIMITED

Gaming

Overnight Price: $4.18

UPDATED

Citi rates TTS as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts report the ACCC’s initial response "looks reasonable", meaning the Commission's key concerns should be manageable for the proposed merger partners. A final decision will be communicated on 4th May.

Thus far there have been no major surprises for Citi. No changes have been made.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.02
If TTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates TTS as Neutral (3) -

Post the ACCC announcement, analysts at Credit Suisse continue to believe the ACCC will approve the proposed TAH/TTS merger.

The ACCC targets 4 May for a final decision. Meanwhile, the analysts note the ACCC has raised five 'amber light' concerns; but none seem insurmountable, in their view. No changes made.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.02
If TTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.50 cents and EPS of 15.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 15.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates TTS as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank considers the  Australian Competition and Consumer Commissions statement of issues in relation to the merger with Tabcorp ((TAH)) is positive for both companies.

The concerns that are raised are relatively benign and addressable, in the broker's opinion. A final decision is scheduled for May 4.

Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $4.67 target.

Target price is $4.67 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.49
If TTS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates TTS as Lighten (4) -

Media and vision rights were the main issue for the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission regarding the proposed merger with Tabcorp ((TAH)).

Other main discussion points that are key to the merger winning final approval include greater liquidity in the tote pool and license renewal and competitive tender processes.

Ord Minnett believes declining wagering yields from competitive pressures are unlikely to abate and significant risk exists regarding Sun Bets and integration of the UBET brand.

Lighten rating retained. Target is $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If TTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

Overnight Price: $35.04

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Australia is overbuilding major cities with too many high density dwellings, otherwise known as apartments.

In the face of this pending glut, Citi analysts have conducted follow-up research and concluded property development loan loss risks remains, but it appears no major bad news should be expected for the major banks in Australia.

In Citi's view, it takes sizable settlement failures to have a meaningful impact plus major banks have already significantly reduced the availability of funding to the sector. No changes made.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $35.04 Difference: minus $4.54 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.93, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 226.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.4, implying annual growth of 0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 226.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.8, implying annual growth of 2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Buy - UBS Overnight Price $17.20
ANZ - ANZ BANKING GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $31.63
CBA - COMMBANK Sell - Citi Overnight Price $83.53
CSR - CSR Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.36
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $32.87
ORI - ORICA Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.14
TAH - TABCORP HOLDINGS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $4.47
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.47
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.47
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.47
TTS - TATTS GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $4.18
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.18
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $4.18
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.18
WBC - WESTPAC BANKING Sell - Citi Overnight Price $35.04
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

3

3. Hold

6

4. Reduce

2

5. Sell

4

Friday 10 March 2017

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