Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 15, 2022

This story features ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AQZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALG   AQZ   CCP   CCX   CGC   CGF   CLW (2)   CNI (2)   COL   CPU   EMN   EVN   GNC   HVN   IPD   MP1   NAB   OPY   PNI   PPE   REA  

ALG    ARDENT LEISURE GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $0.55

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ALG)) as Buy (1) –

With Ardent Leisure completing the divestment of its Main Event segment in July, Canaccord Genuity has removed the relevant financials from its outlook on the company.

The broker continues to see value in Ardent Leisure's Theme Park portfolio, anticipating the company can recover these assets towards annual earnings of $30m. 

Canaccord Genuity expects scarcity of operators in the region, and recovery in domestic tourism, should support a turnaround for the portfolio.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.76 from $1.71.

This report was published on August 2, 2022.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.21
If ALG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.40

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons notes general industry disruptions have delayed the deployment of the E190 fleet, which impacted FY22 normalised profit for Alliance Aviation Services, which came in at the lower end of the guidance range.

As a result of these troubles with the operating fleet, the broker lowers its FY23 forecast and adopts a more cautious stance on underlying margins, given the challenging trading environment.

The proposed Qantas Airways ((QAN)) takeover also adds another layer of uncertainty, according to the analyst. The target price falls to $3.43 from $4.19 and the Market Weight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 11, 2022.

Target price is $3.43 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.03
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 40.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $21.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Hold (3) –

Credit Corp has delivered a small beat to Canaccord Genuity's FY22 net profit forecasts, delivering net profit of $96.2m compared to a forecast $94.2m, but collections of $535m were a miss on a forecast $545m, as well as a -3% half-on-half decline. 

The broker noted Credit Corp's result does reflect continuing difficulty in finding opportunities to deploy capital in the domestic purchased debt ledger market and domestic consumer lending, which both remain necessary to the company's base earnings.

It is Canaccord Genuity's view that the time to buy into Credit Corp will be when domestic revolving credit and arrears show upwards momentum. The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $23.10 from $21.00.

This report was published on August 2, 2022.

Target price is $23.10 Current Price is $21.61 Difference: $1.49
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 23.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.0, implying annual growth of -4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.33

Wilsons rates ((CCX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons lowers its target price for City Chic Collective to $3.20 from $4.80 due to increasing pressure on margins from weakening consumer confidence and softening website visits. Discounting and higher input costs are also beginning to emerge, cautions the analyst.

Lower gross margins in the analyst’s outer year forecasts also reflect a lower evolving contribution from the Evans and Navabi brands.

The Overweight rating is retained. The company reports FY22 results on August 25.

This report was published on August 11, 2022.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.87
If CCX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.79, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 23.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.79

Jarden rates ((CGC)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden provides an earnings preview for Costa Group ahead of the August 26 results.

After meeting with industry contacts, Jarden tweaks the earnings mix with a change in Citrus based on quality issues and a slant to earnings in the second half, while tomatoes and mushrooms are performing well.

On balance, the earnings forecasts are lowered by  -7% for FY22 and FY23. Jarden forecasts a compound average EPS growth rate of 9% for the next 3 years.

A Buy rating is retained and the price target is lowered to $3.40 from $3.50.

This report was published on August 9, 2022.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.61
If CGC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 14.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 48.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 33.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.11

Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden anticipates Challenger's capital footing can provide a buffer to weather significant market movements in the second half, and emerge ready to benefit from a brighter macroeconomic backdrop.

The broker expects Challenger will suffer from market movements in the coming half, predicting a second half net profit loss of -$18m, but notes macro movements should be supportive for the company's Life division. 

With the stock already outperforming the ASX200 to date in 2022, the broker sees scope for further outperformance ahead. The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target price of $7.65 is retained.

This report was published on August 2, 2022.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $0.54
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.19, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 41.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of -55.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 42.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.3, implying annual growth of 17.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW    CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.46

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden is cautious about Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's debt profile with the cost of debt forecast to increase by 50% in FY23 with both hedged and floating costs anticipated to lift in FY23 and FY24.

The broker is equally sanguine regarding the debt cost profile in FY25 and FY26 when the hedging rolls off, unless there is change in interest rate policies.

Accordingly, the compound annual earnings rate is reduced to -2.8% from FY22 until FY27 with EPS forecasts cut by -7%, -4% for FY22 and FY23, respectively.

Overweight maintained for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT but the analyst notes the market may seek more asset divestments to strengthen the balance sheet.

The target is reduced to $4.80 from $5.40 post the adjustment for higher debt funding costs.

This report was published on August 9, 2022.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.34
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.70 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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JP Morgan rates ((CLW)) as Neutral (3) –

FY22 funds from operations (FFO) for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT were a slight beat over JP Morgan's forecast. Net tangible assets (NTA) of $6.17 exceeded 2H guidance for $6.08.

The broker highlights the REIT spent -$22m post balance date to enter interest rate hedges for FY23 and FY24 at below-market rates, saving around -$11m per year, for a 5% boost to FFO.

The Neutral rating and $4.70 target are retained.

This report was published on August 10, 2022.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.24
If CLW meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY24:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((CNI)) as Neutral (3) –

Centuria Capital Group’s FY22 operating EPS of 14.5cps was in line with the estimates made by Goldman Sachs.

The broker expects the group will continue to deliver strong recurring earnings as a percentage of revenue, as it continues to expand assets under management (AUM). These recurring earnings lessen the earnings impact of performance fees.

Management is expected to target growth in alternative sectors such as Healthcare, Agriculture and Credit.

The analyst sits slightly ahead of company FY23 operating EPS guidance of 14.5cps, and in line with FY23 DPS guidance for 11.6 cents.

The target price falls to $2.18 from $2.43, while the Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 11, 2022.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.24
If CNI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CNI)) as Buy (1) –

Centuria Capital Group delivered FY22 operating EPS of 14.5cps, up 21% on FY21 and in line with guidance. 

While FY23 guidance is flat at 14.5cps compared to FY22, dividend guidance rises by 5.4% to 11.6cps to incorporate the expected growth in recurring revenue fees, explains Moelis.

The broker’s forecasts are lowered, though still exceed guidance, to incorporate expectations for moderating funds under management (FUM) growth. The target price falls to $2.71 from $3.12, while the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 11, 2022.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.77
If CNI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $18.81

Goldman Sachs rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) –

In a preview of FY22 results, Goldman Sachs adjusts FY22-24 forecasts for Coles Group and raises its target to $17.30 from $17.20.

The company will only deliver steady earnings (EBIT) margins year-on-year, forecasts the broker, given higher opex as management becomes more proactive on digital transformation. The Neutral rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 10, 2022.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $18.81 Difference: minus $1.51 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.32, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.7, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $23.35

Jarden rates ((CPU)) as Overweight (2) –

Computershare proved to the market just how significant the company's leverage is to higher interest rates, assesses Jarden, delivering a 2% FY22 earnings beat with an upgrade in FY23 to 55% earnings growth guidance, with higher margin income.

Headwinds from weaker transactional revenues and higher costs, with wages expected to rise 5% in FY23 are guided to be offset from the improved margin income.

Jarden considers the likelihood of further growth in the governance and corporate trust sectors from acquisitions as the balance sheet strengthens.

The broker's earnings forecasts are adjusted higher marginally and the target price rises to $27.65 from $26.05.

Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on August 10, 2022.

Target price is $27.65 Current Price is $23.35 Difference: $4.3
If CPU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 21.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 80.02 cents and EPS of 122.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 102.11 cents and EPS of 154.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.2, implying annual growth of 16.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMN    EURO MANGANESE INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMN)) as Buy (1) –

Euro Manganese's feasibility study has updated on capital expenditure, pricing, costs and first-production dates. The study envisages a 25-year operation with post-tax net present value of $1.34bn, and internal rate of return of 22%.

Canaccord Genuity updates its model accordingly. A sharp rise in capital expenditure was to be expected given cost inflation, says the broker. First production is expected in 2027.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $1.15 from $1.30.

This report was published on August 9, 2022.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.76
If EMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 195% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.72

JP Morgan rates ((EVN)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

JP Morgan downgrades its rating for Evolution Mining to Neutral from Overweight, following a Gold sector review.

With recession fears growing, the company is exposed to falling copper prices (around 25% of FY23 revenue), with a flow-on impact to all-in sustaining costs (AISC). Hence, Northern Star Resources ((NST)), with the greatest gold exposure, is the preferred sector pick.

The company reports FY22 results on August 18, and the analyst forecasts underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $893m, profit of $270m and a 2cps final dividend. The $3.00 target is unchanged.

This report was published on August 9, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.28
If EVN meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 1.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -28.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 23.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC    GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $8.10

Wilsons rates ((GNC)) as Market Weight (3) –

Despite an upgrade to FY22 guidance by GrainCorp, Wilsons lowers its target price to $8.29 from $8.80 after adjusting its various valuation methodologies.

While the spread on domestic versus global grain prices has reverted from extreme levels earlier in 2022, the broker increases its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 20% on higher contracted grain sales volumes and slightly better Agribusiness margins.

The analyst’s forecasts for FY24 and beyond are unchanged. The Market Weight rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 11, 2022.

Target price is $8.29 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $0.19
If GNC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.65, suggesting upside of 19.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 173.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.2, implying annual growth of 179.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 84.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.5, implying annual growth of -42.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $4.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((HVN)) as Buy (1) –

In a preview of FY22 results, Goldman Sachs adjusts forecasts for Harvey Norman and raises its target to $4.60 from $4.50.

The broker lowers its FY22 dividend forecast to 36cps from 46cps. The Buy rating is unchanged. 

This report was published on August 10, 2022.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.12
If HVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of -25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -26.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.08

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Impedimed's Care Assistance Program (CAP) maintains its 99% win rate, and has led to physicians being able to charge patients for up to four consultations per year, which on Canaccord Genuity's estimates could generate annual earnings of US$200,000.

For Impedimed, the broker notes contract renewals are now coming through, seeing monthly fees starting at US$1,500 compared to old contract pricing of US$1,00 per month, with new contracts including provision for monthly fee increases each year to reach US$3,000 per month by the end of the three-year term. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.16 from $0.41.

This report was published on August 3, 2022.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.08
If IPD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.33.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $8.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

Megaport's FY22 result pleased Canaccord Genuity, the company exiting the year on a high note, thanks to declining churn as a cohort matures.

Costs outpaced revenue in FY22 and management guided to cuts to operating expenditure. The broker believes the strong June performance points to strong margins in FY23.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $11.30 from $11.

This report was published on August 8, 2022.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $8.31 Difference: $2.99
If MP1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 34.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 70.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 134.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $30.78

Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assessed the National Australia Bank 3Q22 trading update as disappointing from the lack of improvement in Net Interest Margin (NIM) but the cash profits were in line with consensus and Jarden's forecast.

The analyst views scope for margin improvement in the 4Q22 and FY23 as the RBA rate hikes have time to take effect, although the expectations of higher NIM are largely seen as already baked into forecasts.

Jarden remains underweight on the banking sector with macro headwinds and a slowing housing sector, however, National Australia Bank is the preferred stock pick with the strength in business exposure anticipated to perform better than housing.

The broker's earnings forecasts rise 0.5% and 0.3% for FY22 abd FY23, respectively.

Overweight rating and $31 price target remain unchanged.

This report was published on August 11, 2022.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.78 Difference: $0.22
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.58, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 148.00 cents and EPS of 209.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.3, implying annual growth of 9.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 157.00 cents and EPS of 228.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.4, implying annual growth of 10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPY    OPENPAY GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.28

Shaw and Partners rates ((OPY)) as Buy (1) –

Openpay Group's monthly A&NZ upward sales momentum continued in July, sales up 73%. Merchants were flat, customers rose 20% to 323,000 and active plans rose 49% to $1.8m.

Average revenue and net transaction margin continued to rise and the net transaction loss and net bad debts continue to improve, Shaw and Partners noting the latter is half that of Openpay's peers.

The broker notes the company has reopened quickly post covid, and was the first of its peers to turn a profit within 12 months, yet is trading at a -50% discount to peers.

Buy rating and $1 target price retained.

This report was published on August 10, 2022.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.72
If OPY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 257% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.01.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.19.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI    PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $10.94

Wilsons rates ((PNI)) as Overweight (1) –

Pinnacle Investment Management's underlying net profit for FY22 of $78.2m equated to 16.6% year-on-year growth, a 0.9% beat on Wilsons' expectations.

Expectedly, a volatile market did impact, and the broker estimates markets will need to increase 2.3% to meet its funds under management forecasts. Wilsons has updated its net profit forecasts 4.6% in FY23 and FY24 to $88.7m and $111.1m respectively. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $14.00 from $15.00.

This report was published on August 4, 2022.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.94 Difference: $3.06
If PNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.97, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 35.60 cents and EPS of 44.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.9, implying annual growth of 1.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.60 cents and EPS of 55.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPE    PEOPLEIN LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $3.36

Wilsons rates ((PPE)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiates coverage on talent solutions company Peoplein. The broker notes Peoplein has emerged as a beneficiary of record job vacancies in Australia, while exposure to essential growth areas including health care, community care, government and IT has supported the company in delivering a 42% earnings compound annual growth rate from FY18-21.

Peoplein is guiding to earnings of $45-47m in FY22, with Wilsons' forecast toward the higher end of that range at $46.3m. The broker further anticipates the regulatory outlook, with an apparent focus on keeping unemployment low, should benefit the industry.

The broker initiates with an Overweight rating and a target price of $5.15.

This report was published on August 4, 2022.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $1.79
If PPE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.90 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.44.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.47.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $133.85

Jarden rates ((REA)) as Overweight (2) –

REA Group reported FY22 results which were consistent with Jarden's expectations.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts for changes in guidance of stronger yields, higher losses in India and a lower contribution from Financial Services. 

On balance, Jarden rates REA Group highly as the number one platform with depth of operations to cut costs and weather macro headwinds, as well as the capacity to develop alternative revenue growth to offset any slowdown in the housing sector.

Overweight rating is retained. Target price decreases to $133 from $138

This report was published on August 10, 2022.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $133.85 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $132.55, suggesting downside of -1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 319.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 331.8, implying annual growth of 13.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 373.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 374.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 205.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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