Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 04, 2021

This story features ALTIUM, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALU

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALU   ANP   APC   APE   APT   ASG   COE   CRN   ERD   EXP   GCY   GOR   HDN   LBY   OFX   OLL   SXY (2)   TPW (3)   WES (2)   WOW  

ALU    ALTIUM LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $28.59

Bell Potter rates ((ALU)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) –

Based on what it sees as increased risk of a miss in the FY21 revenue guidance, Bell Potter has reduced Altium's price target to $27.50 from $28.50.

Given that this is an 8% discount to the share price, the broker’s recommendation on Altium has been downgraded to Sell from Hold.

Also contributing to the broker’s downgrade were perceived risks associated with Altium’s a shift to cloud, and industry transformation which Altium is attempting to drive by creating market dominance in its current key market of electronic design.

Despite the negative short term impact of discounting the price of a term license for its Altium Designer (AD) software by -50% in the first year, there is no change in Bell Potter’s forecasts.

The broker’s FY21 revenue forecast of US$175m (excludes TASKING) is US$5m below the low end of the guidance range.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $28.59 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.60 cents and EPS of 42.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 54.71 cents and EPS of 50.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of 20.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANP    ANTISENSE THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.19

Wilsons rates ((ANP)) as Overweight (1) –

Having realised a 200%-plus capital return increase since December, Wilsons reminds investors of the further potential upside within the next 12 months for Antisense Therapeutics, specifically in relation to their European Phase IIb trial campaign in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD).

Despite several notable calendar year 2021 setbacks within the sector highlighted by Wilsons last month, the broker continues to view Antisense’s ATL1102 as well placed within the competitive pipeline given the few players actively targeting non-ambulant, wheelchair bound, DMD patients (which comprise 50% of the DMD population).

Commenting on ATL1102, Wilsons notes, pivotal status would mean that ATL1102 may be considered for marketing authorisation following this upcoming EU Phase IIb trial, as opposed to requiring a follow- on Phase III.

The Overweight rating and $0.57 target are maintained.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.38
If ANP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.60.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APC    AUSTRALIAN POTASH LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APC)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

The completion of the front-end engineering design work for Australian Potash Limited's Lake Wells development has validated the technical and commercial viability of the project according to Canaccord. 

Upfront capital has increased to $292m from $208m, which the broker attributes to an increase in production and the inclusion of a granulation and bagging plant to produce premium product. 

Operating costs of the Lake Wells development are projected at $358 per tonne for 170 thousand tonnes per annum over the life of the mine, placing cash costs in the lower quartile of the global industry, according to the broker. 

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $0.30 are retained. 

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.13
If APC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $14.95

Wilsons rates ((APE)) as Market Weight (3) –

In light of unusually strong market dynamics, which saw Eagers Automotive recently confirm first quarter 2021 profit (PBT) of $98m, Wilsons has upgraded the company’s profit forecasts 32-33% in full year 2022 and beyond.

Reflecting the stronger first quarter 2021 trading update and assuming elevated gross margins moderate slightly in 2H21, along with the underlying earnings upgrades, the broker’s full year 2021 profit (PBT) forecast is upgraded 56%.

Wilsons now expects the full cost out benefit to be retained, versus the broker’s previous assumption that 30% of the costs would be restored as trading conditions normalise.

The Market Weight rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $16.16 from $12.41.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $16.16 Current Price is $14.95 Difference: $1.21
If APE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.34, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.20 cents and EPS of 97.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.2, implying annual growth of 46.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.50 cents and EPS of 74.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of -8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APT    AFTERPAY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $114.00

Wilsons rates ((APT)) as Overweight (1) –

Due to acceleration in growth rate, merchant fee margins remaining consistent, and losses continuing to improve as the business scales, Afterpay’s third quarter 2021 underlying sales of $5.2bn increased 104% on the previous period.

However, Wilsons has moderated fourth quarter 2021 underlying sales assumptions by around 6% due to a slower than expected ramp in US customer adds.

This is the primary driver of the broker’s earnings (EBITDA) and net profit (NPAT) downgrades falling by around 17%.

Wilsons notes, Should APT dual-list (in the US) at a similar multiple to Snowflake or experience a listing-day “pop” like Affirm – up 98% on day-1 – a valuation arbitrage could arise.

Overweight rating maintained, target price decreases to $151.05 from $160.2.

This report was published on April 21, 2021. 

Target price is $151.05 Current Price is $114.00 Difference: $37.05
If APT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $121.33, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 797.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 398.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 390.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.48

Wilsons rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (1) –

In light of Autosports Group’s cost out program, and sales upgrades, Wilsons has upgraded the company’s full year 2023 profit before tax (PBT) forecast by 18%.

Due to cost reductions, benefits from dealership relocations, plus stronger trading conditions in the near-term, the broker has also upgraded its PBT forecasts for Autosports Group 7% in FY21 and 21% in FY22.

While new vehicle supply remains constrained relative to demand, Wilsons expects the company to benefit from improving used vehicle supply and the return of near normal activity levels within back end operations.

The broker believes Autosports Group’s significant exposure to Victoria provides additional impetus to the sequential improvement in trading performance.

The Overweight rating is retained, and target price is increased to $2.89 from $2.34.

The report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $2.89 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.41
If ASG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.30 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.53.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

Cooper Energy delivered a reasonable March quarter with production increasing to 0.77mboe, up 46% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ); sales increasing to 0.82mboe, up 55% QoQ; and revenue increasing to $35.9m, up 46% QoQ.

While the company and APA ((APA)) continue to target 68TJ/d at Sole, Canaccord Genuity has retained a more conservative 55TJ/d.

The wide range within Cooper Energy’s June quarter production guidance of 0.7-0.9mnboe (the company has produced 2.0mnboe YTD), suggests to Canaccord Genuity a relatively high level of uncertainty around Sole production rates.

The broker notes, this view is further supported by Cooper's decision to extend the transition agreement with APA to 1 May 2022.

For modeling purposes Canaccord is forecasting June quarter production of 0.8mnboe which incorporates a three-week shutdown in the Otway and 37TJ/d from Sole.

Buy rating and price target of $0.49 both retained.

This research update was released on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.25
If COE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.36, suggesting upside of 50.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal – Overnight Price: $0.60

Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Stronger than expected pricing in the US partially offset weaker realised prices from Coronado Global Resources’ Australian operations during the first quarter of CY21.

At 31 March 2021, Coronado’s net debt position was US$290m (US$282m at 31 December 2020), with $34m cash and $324m drawn debt.

Bell Potter believes Coronado is leveraged to recovering met coal pricing. The company’s portfolio of long life, low cost met coal assets and fundamental asset values are key support to the broker’s Buy recommendation.

Bell Potter expects CY21 to be a recovery year with free cash flow growth enabling the company to deleverage and contemplate a return to dividend payments and growth capital outlay.

Target price decreases to $1.27 from $1.45. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $1.27 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.67
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 108.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.52 cents and EPS of 15.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LTD

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $5.18

Bell Potter rates ((ERD)) as Buy (1) –

Following Eroad’s positive fourth quarter 2021 trading update, Bell Potter has updated its unit growth and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) assumptions, resulting in a 0.9% upgrade to the broker’s FY21 underlying EPS estimate.

During 4Q21 unit growth reaccelerated out of covid, asset churn remained low and new product launches generated good early traction.

The company also reiterated its FY21 and FY22 guidance, meaning there should be limited surprises at the upcoming FY21 result.

Supported by continued revenue growth and attractive unit economics, Bell Potter reiterates its Buy rating and target price of $5.62.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $5.62 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.44
If ERD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 225.22.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 123.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EXP    EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $0.28

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EXP)) as Buy (1) –

Experience Co Limited has announced the acquisition of three nature-based experiences, the first acquisition transaction executed under the current management team. 

Wild Bush Luxury, comprising Arkaba Walk and Homestead and Bamurru Plains, and Maria Island Walk will be acquired for cash consideration of between $4.3 and $5.3m. These assets recorded earnings of $1m in the 2019 financial year. 

Canaccord feels the 'premium adventure' category these experiences sit in is a large available market that could represent a significant component of Experience's earnings. Further, the broker notes that trading conditions are likely to improve in the tourism industry based on increased domestic tourism, limited State border closures and the Federal Government's support package. 

The Buy rating and target price of $0.25 are retained. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If EXP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.08.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 400.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GCY    GASCOYNE RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GCY)) as Buy (1) –

Gascoyne Resources has reported gold production in the March quarter largely in line with Canaccord's forecasts. Production from the Dalgaranga project totalled 19.2 thousand ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,114 per ounce. 

A misfire delayed access to higher grade ore, but the lower grade stock was offset by better-than-forecasted throughput. Waste stripping was similarly in line with forecasts of around $16m and free cash flow for the period totalled $9.4m. 

The Buy rating and target price of $0.80 is retained. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.24
If GCY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.55.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.11.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Gold Road Resources March quarter results were slightly below forecast, producing 33.1 thousand ounces compared to an expected 35 thousand ounces. 

According to Canaccord the variance is due to lower-than-forecast processed tonnes, greater-than-expected gold in circuit, and greater-than-expected sustaining capital expenditure. 

Despite this the broker expects plant utilisation to improve going forwards due to successful shut downs for both SAG mill and ball mill re-lines and an upgrade to the pebble crushing circuit during the quarter. Maintenance and plant improvements did increase costs by $6.2m quarter-on-quarter, impacting free cash flow. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.00 are retained. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.76
If GOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.71.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.30

Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden likes passive yield REIT’s for attractive valuations, total shareholder returns and support from demand for real Australian assets. Also, there’s considered capacity to fund investment and growth. 

Some REIT’s are trading at a discount to valuation which may drive potential M&A activity, explains the broker. 

Jarden prefers exposure to non-discretionary Retail for the ability to boost growth with developments and acquisitions. HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is considered well positioned to deliver sustainable and growing earnings and distributions.

The broker retains a Buy rating and increases the target price to $1.55 from $1.50.

This report was issued on February 17, 2021.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.25
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 107.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LBY    LAYBUY GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.85

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LBY)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Laybuy Group Holdings' latest quarterly results cap off a financial year that has seen the company triple active customers to just under 500k, while total customers in the typically quiet quarter increased 69k to total 756k. 

Repeat customers were up in the Australian and New Zealand region to 73% compared to 66% in the previous corresponding period, and in the United Kingdom up to 62% from 44% in the previous corresponding period. 

Canaccord feels the UK is the biggest market for expansion for the company, expecting an increase in repeat customers and purchasing frequency expected to increase.

The Speculative Buy rating and the target price of $3.00 is retained. 

This report was published on April 21, 2021. 

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $2.15
If LBY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 253% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 23.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.65.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.37.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX    OFX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OFX)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Cannacord Genuity has initiated coverage on international payments specialist OFX Group Ltd (formally Ozforex) with a Buy rating and a price target of $1.60.

The broker is attracted to OFX Group’s global and scalable business model, high and consistent cash generation and capital-light business model with exceptional operating leverage.

OFX Group’s gross profit after promotional/marketing spend is around 80% (4-yr avg.), which Cannacord Genuity believes illustrates very high operating leverage as its Fee and Trading Income grows.

Australia/NZ is the domestic market for OFX Group and contributes the lion’s share of its Fee and Trading income and profitability.

However, the company is delivering impressive growth in its North American segment (20% compound annual growth rate FY15-20), which Cannacord Genuity believes will continue to be a source of upside for OFX  Group along with potential M&A opportunities, which in the broker’s view should bring about a lift in scale.

The report was issued April, 20 2021.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.37
If OFX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.30 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.37.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.96.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OLL    OPENLEARNING LTD

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OLL)) as Buy (1) –

OpenLearning Limited reported a revenue increase of 28% quarter-on-quarter, and contained operating costs for the March quarter to $1m, down from $1.8m in the previous quarter, reports Canaccord.

Reported cash receipts of $1.3m, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 80%, also suggests reduced cash burn throughout 2021, according to the broker. 

Following encouraging cash receipts from the initial semester intake through the UNSW Transition Program Online to the tune of $0.511m, the broker feels new partnership agreements with other universities and education providers could represent growth catalysts for the company. 

The Speculative Buy rating is and target price of $0.43 is retained.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.25
If OLL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY    SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $3.09

Bell Potter rates ((SXY)) as Buy (1) –

Supported by the continued ramp-up of its Surat Basin gas assets, with Atlas now at nameplate capacity of 32TJ/day and Roma North continuing to outperform, Senex Energy Ltd reported a strong March 2021 quarter with production of 4.6PJ, sales of 4.8PJ and revenue of $33m.

There were no changes to FY21 guidance of 17-18PJ (2.9-3.1MMboe) production and $50-60m earnings (EBITDA).

Following the March 2021 quarterly report, Bell Potter has increased FY22 crude oil price assumptions to US$60/bbl (previously US$50/bbl).

Bell Potter’s earnings estimates and valuation currently factor in Project Atlas producing to 32TJ/day (12PJpa) then expanding to 48TJ/day from 2022; and Roma North (Western Surat Gas Project) producing to 18TJ/day, increasing to 24TJ/day in 2021.

The broker is yet to incorporate Roma North’s expansion to 48TJ/day (18PJpa) from 1H FY23.

Buy rating remains unchanged, and target price increases to $3.75 from $3.71.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.66
If SXY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 22.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 129.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((SXY)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord has reported that Senex Energy's operations produced 4.6 petajoules during the March quarter, a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter, thanks to increased production at Atlas. Sales totaled $33.2m for the quarter. 

With Atlas and Roma North performance exceeding Senex Energy's forecasts, Canaccord is hopeful that debottlenecking with commence in the June quarter. 

The broker considers Senex Energy well placed to deliver on further expansions in the Surat Basin and the company advised there is interest in the expansion of Atlas to 48 terajoules per day. Senex Energy is working on long-lead item planning for gas processing facility expansion, reports the broker. 

The Buy rating is retained with the target price rising to $4.59 from $4.49. 

This report was published on April 20, 2020.

Target price is $4.59 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $1.5
If SXY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 22.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 181.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 129.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $10.66

Bell Potter rates ((TPW)) as Hold (3) –

Temple & Webster Group achieved third quarter 2021 year-on-year (YoY) sales growth of 112%, compared with YoY growth of 118% for the first 7 weeks of 2H21.

Reflecting continued tough comps for the balance of FY21, Bell Potter is forecast revenue growth of around 64% for FY21.

Bell Potter has reduced 2H21, FY22, and FY23 earnings (EBITDA) margin estimates in line with Temple & Webster’s stated ‘scale up’ phase guidance range. The broker has also reduced FY21-FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 21%-58%.

However, this is offset by a strengthening in Bell Potter’s long-term growth assumptions.

Hold rating unchanged, the target price reduces to $11.30 from $11.75.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $0.64
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.81, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 75.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 88.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 97.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Temple & Webster management has announced it will undergo a reinvestment phase to focus on revenue growth and market leadership. The company will build brand awareness through mainstream media, conduct tactical product pricing, and invest in technology, data and personalisation to improve customer experience, explains Canaccord. 

According to the broker further areas of reinvestment include 3D and AI capabilities and new category additions to differentiate the product range. Canaccord feels the move suggests Temple & Webster are playing a long game and has adjusted medium-term forecasts to reflect an increase in contributions. 

The announcement comes off the back of maintained high growth in the March quarter, with revenue increasing 112% on the previous corresponding period. 

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $11.80 from $12.

This report was published on April 20, 2020.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.14
If TPW meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.81, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 71.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 75.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 152.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 97.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden believes Temple and Webster Group’s strong third quarter 2021 revenue growth of 112% should allay concerns around the company’s ability to positively comp the strong base of the last 12 months.

The broker notes, April revenue to date up over 20% versus the previous period, highlights the positive aspects that the broker continues to see in this story: Accelerating shift to online, leverage to the strong housing market, and good execution.

Jarden’s revenue estimates are unchanged over FY21-23, however the broker has lifted mid-term revenue estimates to reflect a more rapid category online penetration.

Jarden’s cost estimates increase materially and broadly consists of a 150-190bps gross margin percentage reduction and a 130-170bps increase in marketing/revenue in FY22, FY22, and FY23 respectively. As a result, the broker’s FY21/FY23 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts reduced by 15%/53% respectively.

Overweight rating retained, price target decreases to $11.70 from $11.96.

This research update was released on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $1.04
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.81, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 76.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 75.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 133.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 97.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $53.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Wesfarmers' investor presentation provided reassurance of ongoing strategy implementation of its Kmart business, according to Goldman Sachs. 

Wesfarmers reported that Kmart offers a key advantage over competitors in scale of sourcing and offer, which it believes will improve through the ongoing conversion of Target stores. It was also reported that online sales of $400m were generated in 2020, and a new online platform to improve customer experience is being implemented. 

The company further maintained it's target of $10bn in sales, $1bn in earning and six stock turns per annum. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy with a target price of $59.70. 

This report was published on April 20, 2020.

Target price is $59.70 Current Price is $53.78 Difference: $5.92
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $53.25, suggesting downside of -1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 38.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 123.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 200.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WES)) as Buy (2) –

While Wilsons has made no earnings changes to Wesfarmers, the broker expects positive drivers through the 6-12 months ahead to be supported by macro tailwinds around housing, particularly on data such as Housing Approvals and Additions & Alterations.

Equally encouraging the broker notes, consumer confidence remains materially higher than 6 months ago, with consumer finance and household balance sheets remaining flexible and strong.

Wilsons also believes to the 6-12 month extension of the Homebuilder program should continue to support the outlook in calendar year 2021, with tailwinds for the group, and especially Bunnings expected to materialise over the coming 6-12 months.

Overweight rating and target of $60 remain unchanged.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $53.78 Difference: $6.22
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $53.25, suggesting downside of -1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 206.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 38.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 211.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 200.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $39.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –

Woolworths Group has announced plans to increase its stake in Quantium to 75% from 47% with a $223m investment, implying a $800m valuation of the business. 

Upon completion, which is expected to be prior to the end of the financial year according to Goldman Sachs, a new business unit known as Q-Retail is expected to be established to focus on advancing analytics in retail.  

The broker considers the investment as strategically aligned with an increasing importance for data analytics and digital retailing in the industry. 

The Buy rating is retained with a target price of $43.60. 

This report was published on April 20, 2021. 

Target price is $43.60 Current Price is $39.00 Difference: $4.6
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $42.54, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.1, implying annual growth of 65.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 161.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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