Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 24 to Friday April 28, 2017
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 8
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 44.00%; Hold 42.44%; Sell 13.56%

For the week ending Friday, 28th April 2017, FNArena registered ten upgrades and eight downgrades for ASX-listed stocks. Resources stocks are back in the limelight, on both sides. Coca-Cola Amatil was the sole company to receive both an upgrade and a downgrade.

Seven out of ten upgrades moved to Buy, including for Beadell Resources, BHP Billiton and Sandfire Resources. Oz Minerals stood out with two upgrades, one to Neutral.

Only two out of eight downgrades sank to Sell. One was for Coca-Cola Amatil, the other for Nine Entertainment. AGL Energy, Blackmores and Newcrest Mining also received a downgrade.

Kathmandu (+7%) takes the honours for largest lift in consensus target, at a distance followed by Webjet (+2%) in an otherwise quiet field. On the negative side, Newcrest received the biggest blow following its quake-impacted market update, its consensus target falling by -5%, followed by Independence Group (-1.5%) and other small deductions.

The numbers get bigger for adjustments to earnings estimates. Iluka Resources wears the crown for the week, enjoying an increase of 51%, followed by DUET group (+20%), then Alumina Ltd (+16%). On the flipside, Ten Network virtually mirrors Iluka into the negative (-54%), followed by Village Roadshow (-34.9%), then Senex Energy (-32%).

The week ahead will direct investor interest towards major banks with all of ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Macquarie Group ((MQG)) releasing market updates this week.

Upgrade

ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/1/4

Incorporating the latest results from AWAC-partner Alcoa and Citi's update on commodity prices projections has triggered modest increases to earnings forecasts. It was enough to trigger an upgrade in rating to Neutral from Sell.

Price target moves to $1.80 from $1.70. Citi's preference remains with the likes of Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and South32 ((S32)) with both also offering investors alumina & aluminium exposure.

BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED ((BDR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/1

March quarter production was weak and Macquarie believes Access and machine availability negatively affected  the outcome. A key constraint on production at Tucano is the configuration which limits feed to oxide only.

A feasibility study is underway to assess the necessary upgrades to process fresh ore. The broker believes the production profile will strengthen now and mine life extensions are also likely.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $0.30.

BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/1/5

Morgan Stanley believes regional banks are relatively well placed to navigate the changing mortgage market, given more leverage to re-pricing, falling capital and less impact from lower loan growth.

This is most positive for Bendigo & Adelaide and the broker upgrades to Equal-weight  from Underweight. The stock is now the broker's preferred regional bank. Target is raised to $11.40 from $10.30. Industry view is In-Line.

The bank still needs to improve its return on equity, improve on costs, and de-risk via a partial sale of Homesafe, Morgan Stanley believes.

BHP BILLITON LIMITED ((BHP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/4/0

Wet weather in Queensland and Escondida strikes virtually guaranteed the March quarter was going to be weak, and that's exactly what the company delivered, suggest analysts at Citi.

Citi analysts have updated their commodity prices projections, leading to further upgrades. In combination with a noticeably weaker share price, this has triggered an upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target price remains unchanged at $28.50.

Noteworthy: EPS estimates have been reduced for FY17 but increased for FY18, though still no growth is anticipated post FY17. DPS estimates have been lifted across the board.

COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED ((CCL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Credit Suisse has upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The analysts do not believe the latest profit warning is more evidence of structural decline for the company's key products; we are merely witnessing temporary headwinds, argue the analysts.

Because forecasts beyond the current financial year do not fall, the stockbroker's DCF valuation is only impacted by -10c. Target thus falls to $10.30 from $10.40.

In the absence of volume growth, the analysts believe management will still achieve stable margins and slightly higher prices, helped by a second $100m cost reduction program and the closure of the SA bottling plant.

See also CCL downgrade.

IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED ((IFL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Previously, Citi analysts couldn't muster much enthusiasm for owning this stock, other than for its relatively attractive yield. Now the analysts believe short term dynamics are conspiring for a positive boost and this warrants an upgrade to Buy from Neutral.

Among the positives cited are new advisors joining the group and regulatory changes to the super regime boosting inflows into fiscal year-end. Platform net profits are also expected to rise versus the previous half. Target jumps to $9.40 from $8.40.

INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL ((IGO)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Citi has upgraded to Buy from Neutral following share price weakness. Independence Group's March quarter update proved weaker than expected, but Citi analysts draw confidence from the fact Nova is back on track.

The Nova mine is expected to reach nameplate output in the September quarter, point out the analysts. Price target falls to $4.16.

OZ MINERALS LIMITED ((OZL)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans and Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 4/2/2

Morgans makes only minor changes as a result of softer quarterly production, noting 2017 guidance is intact despite a rain-affected quarter.

Several external events have driven a -30% correction in the stock from its February high but this does not alter the broker's valuation. Morgans believes the sell-off is based on sentiment rather than fundamentals and now looks overdone.

Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target is reduced to $8.28 from $8.30.

March quarter production was -11% below Deutsche Bank's forecast because of heavy rainfall. Carrapateena's feasibility study has been delayed because of issues with mine scheduling. Nevertheless, the project remains on track.

While technical concerns remain, the broker does not risk-weight Carrapateena. The stock is now closing in on fair value and rating is upgraded to Hold from Sell. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.10.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL ((SFR)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/3/1

March quarter production was in line with guidance. Morgans incorporates Monty into modelling but was underwhelmed by the reserve size and capital expenditure.

The broker believes attention is now likely to focus on the company's ability to add incremental project life to Degrussa, given the dwindling reserves.

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold, given 20% upside to the revised valuation. Target is reduced to $6.79 from $7.02.

Downgrade

AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/1

Time for the AGL Energy share price to take a breather, advocate analysts at Ord Minnett. They have pulled back their recommendation to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds, i.e. it's getting pricey where the share price currently sits.

It is the stockbroker's view that the strong positive catalysts driven by summer weather conditions are now not likely to be seen for a few months. In the meantime, policymakers across Australia are looking into potential remedies for Australia's electricity crisis, point out the analysts. Target remains $28.50.

BLACKMORES LIMITED ((BKL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/3/0

March quarter results revealed sales down -8.6% and net profit down -46.8%. Ord Minnett observes the quarter was cycling peak earnings for the company, given regulatory changes which affected the business in the December quarter and the build up in inventory.

The broker reduces its recommendation to Hold from Accumulate and lowers the target to $110 from $120. Ord Minnett awaits indications of a sustained recovery in sales and margins before becoming more constructive.

COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED ((CCL)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Soft grocery sales in Australia drove Coca-Cola's earnings guidance downgrade, along with a weak macro backdrop in Indonesia. A fall in first half profit is expected while FY profit is expected to be flat, implying improvement in the second half.

UBS believes the decline of fizzy drink sales is structural, and may accelerate. Management has been doing well to cut costs but opportunities will soon fade. Further earnings risk is also provided by a possible container deposit scheme.

UBS cuts its target to $9 from $10 and downgrades to Sell.

See also CCL upgrade.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/1/0

March quarter production was in line with estimates. Mineral ore reserves have increased to 6.99m ounces,  with growth largely driven by the Ernest Henry acquisition.

Morgans raises the target slightly, to $2.33 from $2.32. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add as the stock is trading above valuation.

The stock remains the broker's preferred play in the mid-cap gold sector.

GPT ((GPT)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Retail sales grew at 3.2% in the March quarter while specialty sales grew 2.4%. The company's break up of monthly retail sales also points to further deceleration in specialty sales over the next  one to two quarters.

Ord Minnett's estimated re-leasing spreads will be effectively zero for the next 12 months, then perpetually negative. As a result the broker tempers estimates for the next five years.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Buy and lowers the target to $5.25 from $5.35.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/3

The operations at Cadia East have been damaged following an earthquake and Citi analysts believe the impact will be felt for longer. The subsequent reduction in forecasts is the main cause for today's downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

The analysts also believe the official review of Bonikro in Ivory Coast should be interpreted as the preparation for future divestment. Citi values the project at US$118m. Target cut to $24 from $27.40.

NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NEC)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/2

Nine's share price has risen 30% since its February result, on a variety of factors, UBS notes including taking ratings from its rivals, the attribution of greater value to Stan, cost-out potential and M&A if media laws change.

Yet ratings have improved against a a backdrop of structural FTA TV decline, and the broker  questions Stan's valuation. Stan faces competition from both direct rivals and other media platforms, point out the analysts. UBS has lifted its target to $1.05 from 90c but downgrades to Sell on valuation.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD ((NST)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/0

March quarter production was softer than Credit Suisse expected and a similar outcome in the June quarter is needed to meet the bottom of the guidance range.

The broker expects guidance for FY17 of 485-515,000 ounces should be achievable on outperformance at Kalgoorlie.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform on valuation. Target is raised to $4.15 from $4.10.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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